Comparable to the "stock god" Buffett!
According to China Securities News reported on February 19, Tesla's latest shareholder position information shows that a mysterious new shareholder Natixis bought 171 million Tesla shares in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Tesla's latest stock price, Natixis in the first 6 weeks of 2023, floating profit has reached 14.6 billion US dollars (about 99 billion yuan), simply too strong.
However, some people rejoice, others worry! According to the Daily Economic News reported on February 14, the Wall Street Journal quoted data from financial analysis firm S3 Partners as saying that in the past month, due to the continuous surge in Tesla's stock price, Tesla's short losses have increased to $7.6 billion (about 51.8 billion yuan), making Tesla the worst short target for hedge fund returns.
It is worth mentioning that after two sharp price cuts, Tesla recently opened a continuous price increase mode. On February 17, Tesla China's official website showed that the domestic Tesla Model Y long-range version and high-performance version increased their prices by 2,000 yuan. This is Tesla's second price increase in the Chinese market after entering 2023. Just a week ago, on February 10, Tesla China's official website showed that the price of the rear-drive version of Model Y increased by 2,000 yuan to 261,900 yuan. The estimated delivery time is 2-5 weeks.
Since the sharp price reduction of domestic models in January this year, Tesla's stock price has risen sharply, and the increase in the year has been close to 70%. As of the close of trading on February 17, Eastern time, Tesla's stock price was $208.31 per share, with a market value of $659.1 billion.
Nearly 100 billion yuan was earned in 6 weeks
According to China Securities News on February 19, recently, a mysterious new shareholder - Natixis Investment Management (Natixis Investment Management) suddenly appeared on Tesla's shareholder registry. Tesla's institutional holdings statement shows that the company bought a large number of Tesla shares in the fourth quarter of 2022, buying 171 million shares, and the number of shares held rose to 190 million, surpassing BlackRock and second only to Vanguard.
Image source: Oriental Fortune
Affected by factors such as inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, Tesla suffered an epic plunge in 2022, with its stock price falling nearly 70% for the year. In the fourth quarter of last year, the French trade bank accurately grasped the last bottom spot.
Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla has rebounded strongly, and its stock price has achieved a shocking reversal, and as of the close of trading on February 17, it has risen by nearly 70% during the year. At current prices, the 190 million Tesla shares held by Statz have a market capitalization of nearly $39.6 billion. This also means that its 171 million shares in the fourth quarter of last year made a profit of US$14.6 billion (about 99 billion yuan) in just six weeks.
According to the Daily Economic News reported on February 14, recent data from research institute Vanda Research shows that when some hedge funds are short, retail investors are also "crazy long". The agency said in a research note last week that "Tesla's rally continues to attract an unprecedented number of retail investors... In our view, retail investors are chasing Tesla to make up for floating losses in 2022. But retail investors remain vulnerable to negative catalysts. ”
In addition, Tesla's continuous rise this year has also made some bigwigs who "bottomed out" in the fourth quarter of last year make a lot of money, including "wooden sister" Kathy Wood.
Tesla's stock price soared, in addition to the general trend of the US stock market, it is inseparable from its sharp price reduction in the Chinese market. On January 6 this year, Tesla China made a new round of price cuts for Model 3/Y. After this adjustment, all Tesla models on China's official website have ushered in the lowest price in history. Among them, the rear-wheel drive version of Model 3 was lowered by 36,000 yuan, and the starting price was only 229,900 yuan, setting a record low for Tesla's price.
Tesla's sharp price cuts in the Chinese market have not only set off a "price war" for other car companies, but also increased the new demand for Tesla in the market. Musk also said that so far in January, Tesla has seen its strongest opening year order volume ever, with orders twice its production capacity.
The reporter also noted that Tesla will hold the 2023 Investor Event Day on March 1, local time. The company said investors will be able to see the company's state-of-the-art production lines and have discussions with the leadership team about long-term expansion plans, third-generation platforms, capital allocation and more. In addition, Tesla CEO Musk said on social media on February 8 that the third chapter of Tesla's Master Plan Part 3, how the planet is on the road to fully sustainable energy, will be announced on investor event day. Some analysts expect the event to be a potential catalyst for boosting investor confidence.
There is speculation that information about cheap new models will be announced on the investor event day. This may have a greater impact on other competitors, especially automakers that produce low-end cars.
Photo source: Photo by Zhang Jian, reporter (data map)
"Sister Wood": Continued price cuts can stimulate more demand
Although the stock price doubled in just one month, Wall Street analysts have different opinions on Tesla's next move.
A technical analysis by the US investment bank BTIG pointed out that Tesla's strong performance at the beginning of this year will be tested. Jonathan Krinsky, the bank's chief market technical analyst, said the stock's rally since Jan. 6 has surprised some of the most optimistic forecasters, which he also did not foresee, but that this surprising rally will begin to test technical indicators. The analyst believes that Tesla's "rally is basically over" and its performance will cool down after that.
Jonathan Krinsky said: "We think the $210~$225 range is a very strong resistance area, which is the lowest level in February, May and June 2022. The analyst also added that the stock's RSI (Relative Strength Index) has reached 77, the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating that the stock has entered "overbought" status. "Even if investors are bullish on Tesla, the stock now seems to be going too far," he noted. ”
Bank of America analyst John Murphy is also not bullish on Tesla. Analysts believe Tesla's price cut announced in January will hurt its brand, as well as hurt profit margins. "According to Musk's statement on the fourth-quarter earnings call, he said that consumers demand twice as much for Tesla as it supplies," he said. Well, it would be foolish to cut prices, which would only erode Tesla's profitability and not achieve any increments in the short term. ”
However, some analysts are optimistic about Tesla's stock price, saying that Tesla's price cut will be a catalyst for the stock price to continue to rise - Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes that Tesla's price cut is a "genius move". "The demand outlook for 2023 even outpaced the bull market, which triggered a prolonged short covering," he said. ”
Kathy Wood, the "wooden sister" who has been singing long Tesla, also said in an interview with Yahoo Finance that Tesla's price reduction is because of its cost leadership in battery technology, and with such leadership, Tesla can continue to reduce prices and stimulate more demand. "I think it's going to be hard for traditional automakers to keep up with the continued price reductions that Tesla's advanced technology has brought about." She said.
Daily economic news comprehensive per jing network (reporter: Cai Ding), China Securities News