Zhou Hongyi didn't want to be eliminated

Zebra consumption Ren Jianxin

If you believe, you have, and if you don't believe, you don't.

Last week, an interactive news about the layout of ChatGPT pushed the stock price of 360 and pulled out three consecutive limit boards.

The signs of concept hype are clear. In fact, 360's investment in ChatGPT is still far from real commercialization.

360's traditional model of relying on traffic for advertising and value-added services is gradually declining, and its revenue continues to decline, ushering in huge losses in 2022, and the company's market value has plummeted.

Zhou Hongyi and 360 urgently need to catch the ChatGPT bus so that they will not be eliminated.

One interaction for three price limits

"Companies that can't catch the ChatGPT bus will be eliminated." On February 9, Sohu CEO Zhang Chaoyang and 360 Group founder Zhou Hongyi launched a "Dialogue Under the Stars" on Sohu.com, and Zhou Hongyi once again spoke amazingly.

During the conversation, Zhou Hongyi spoke highly of the current hot ChatGPT, believing that ChatGPT can bring infinite possibilities, and it may represent the beginning of a real revolution in the history of artificial intelligence.

Subsequently, Zhou Hongyi changed his words, "Not everyone can get on the ChatGPT car, and enterprises with technology accumulation can come out." He emphasized that companies with search engine technology are most likely to catch the bus. This is undoubtedly talking about himself, because there are 360 searches under 360.

I don't know how Zhang Chaoyang, who is sitting opposite him and also urgently needs to find a way out for Sohu, will feel.

When asked about the progress of 360 layout ChatGPT, Zhou Hongyi stopped "can't say more", only saying that "I will definitely not give up research and tracking of this technology".

Obviously, Zhou Hongyi learned the lesson of the company a few days ago.

At noon on February 7, on the investor interactive platform, a question about the 360 layout ChatGPT suddenly appeared. Soon, the company officially replied, clarifying that its artificial intelligence research institute has continued to invest in AIGC technology, including ChatGPT technology, since 2020, and plans to launch a demo version of ChatGPT technology as soon as possible.

In the reply, the company did not forget to emphasize its own advantages, "At present, the participants of ChatGPT are Google, Bing, Baidu and other search engine companies. 360 Search is the top 2 search engine in China, with a market share of 35%".

With this interactive news, 360's stock price suddenly rose violently on the afternoon of February 7, and finally welded to death on the price limit board.

In the following two trading days on February 8 and 9, the stock price of 360 rose to a limit, closing at 9.70 yuan / share on the 9th, setting a new high since April 2022.

On February 8, 360's static P/E ratio was 69.85, much higher than the average of 38.98 in the same industry, and the valuation was significantly higher.

The company admitted in the risk warning announcement that the previous investment in AIGC technology has not yet been commercialized, and there is no substantial impact on performance; Compared with the current ChatGPT based on GPT-3.5 algorithm, the indicators of the company's ChatGPT-like technology still lag behind; The release date and actual effect of the demo version of the ChatGPT-like product that the company plans to launch based on ChatGPT-like technology are uncertain.

In fact, a number of domestic first-line Internet companies have recently announced their own ChatGPT-like plans, and 360's research on AIGC technology is not unique in China.

What is ChatGPT? It is a chatbot program released by OpenAI in the United States on November 30, 2022. It is a natural language processing tool driven by artificial intelligence technology that is able to conduct conversations by learning and understanding human language. OpenAI was invested by Microsoft, and ChatGPT increased to 100 million users in just two months.

Bill Gates said that ChatGPT is no less important than the invention of the Internet.

The man who "chased the wind"

In the PC era, Zhou Hongyi and 360 are undoubtedly successful. But its success does not stem from originality, but from the "backhand strategy" of Lao Zhou.

At the beginning of the last century, with the rapid rise of the Internet, various viruses began to flood the Internet. Antivirus software such as Kingsoft Antivirus, Jiangmin Antivirus, Rising Antivirus and foreign-funded Kaspersky came into being and quickly occupied the market.

In those days, installing antivirus software on a computer cost money to buy, and it was expensive.

At that time, Zhou Hongyi was painstakingly operating his own "3721" and carrying out real-name services on Chinese network. It was also 3721 that made him permanently notorious as the "father of rogue software".

In 2003, Yahoo invested in the acquisition of 3721, and Zhou Hongyi achieved financial freedom and became the president of Yahoo China.

However, just two years later, he left Yahoo, invested in Qihoo, became his own chairman, and launched Qihoo 360 security guard "Congliang", blocking rogue software, starting with his old club Yahoo's "Yahoo Assistant".

Later, Zhou Hongyi took a fancy to the huge market for antivirus software. However, this market has been firmly occupied by the first mover, what does 360 rely on to achieve a counterattack?

"Free" has become Zhou Hongyi's killer app. Even if his peers blamed him for "harming others and not benefiting himself", he still insisted on going his own way. In the end, Zhou Hongyi killed a group of anti-virus peers, and 360 dominated the Chinese's computer.

"Free tends to be the most expensive." Chinese netizens have to contribute their time and traffic while enjoying 360 antivirus software for free, which has become 360's advertising revenue.

However, with the rapid advent of the mobile Internet era, users have shifted a lot of time to mobile phones, the market share of PC advertising has declined, and the days of 360 lying and earning are gone.

Zhou Hongyi has also seen that hardware represented by smart phones will become a new outlet, and wants to realize the rapid mobility of its products. In 2014, he followed Lei Jun's footsteps to build mobile phones with an ambition, and in 5 years, he came to the conclusion that "professional things need professionals to do".

When the era of live broadcast arrived, Zhou Hongyi also did not miss it. Last year, he integrated six rooms and peppercorns live broadcast to form Huafang Group and successfully landed on Hong Kong stocks, with a current market value of only more than 2 billion Hong Kong dollars. Investors are well aware that when mainstream live broadcast platforms have been fully e-commerce, it is difficult to have a big future by relying on the flower house that continues the show model.

In the past two years, 360's largest investment is undoubtedly investing in Nezha cars. This is also Zhou Hongyi's pursuit of the current hot spot, looking for a new outlet for 360. In October 2021, the company disclosed that it intends to invest 2.9 billion yuan in Nezha Automobile, and the actual investment is 1.9 billion yuan.

With the super profitability of its financial business, 360 Digital has become the best-performing business segment of the 360 series, and successfully listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2022. However, compared with Ant Financial, Tencent Tenpay, JD Digital, etc., 360 Digital lacks platform advantages, and can only survive in the cracks with the positioning of the loan matching platform.

It should be noted that 360 Digital has experienced business crises such as a decline in the number of users, a rising overall overdue rate, and a decline in performance.

Glory is followed by gloom

Zhou Hongyi's 360, a latecomer in the field of antivirus software, became the largest Internet security service and product provider in China in only 5 years, and was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2011.

The company's performance in the U.S. stock market obviously made Lao Zhou feel dissatisfied. In June 2015, it announced the launch of the 360 privatization strategic plan, and one year later, it was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange.

Since then, the news of 360 A, like "menstruation", has constantly disturbed the A-share market. A number of A-share shell companies have had scandals with 360, and in the short term, the stock price has risen.

However, Lao Zhou finally chose Jiangnan Jiajie and successfully listed on February 28, 2018. On the same day, Zhou Hongyi still wore the iconic "red suit" and appeared on the gong knocking ceremony.

360 has also become the first company among China's established Internet giants to be listed on the A-share market.

The market also gave Zhou Hongyi and 360 extremely high courtesy. After the resumption of trading, 18 price limit boards directly pulled the stock price to a high of more than 50 yuan. At its peak, 360's market value exceeded 450 billion yuan.

Glory is followed by gloom.

In 2018, 360's total revenue reached a peak of 13.13 billion yuan, and then entered a continuous decline channel. In 2019, the company's net profit attributable to the parent was as high as 5.980 billion yuan, and in 2020 and 2021, it has been continuously cut and slashed, and it has only 900 million yuan.

In the past 2022, 360's operation can be described as bleak. While revenue continued to decline, the performance turned from profit to loss, and a huge loss of 2.48 billion yuan is expected for the whole year.

Due to the intensification of competition in the mobile Internet advertising market and the continuous reduction of the proportion of PC launches, the company's Internet commercialization and value-added service business, which the company relies heavily on, achieved operating income of about 5.79 billion yuan, a decrease of about 1.62 billion yuan from the same period of the previous year, a decrease of about 22% year-on-year.

The company's foreign investment in the joint ventures in the past also experienced extensive losses in 2022, recognizing investment gains and losses and fair value change gains and losses totaling approximately -1.50 billion yuan, down about 1.76 billion yuan from the same period of the previous year. Opera Limited alone brought more than 500 million yuan in investment losses to the company.

On Friday, after three consecutive days of limit increases, 360 finally ushered in a decline, closing at 9.37 yuan / share, down 3.40%, with a market value of only 67 billion yuan.

Thirty years to the east of the river, thirty years to the west of the river. Today's Zhou Hongyi needs another big gamble to fight for a new future for 360.