Author|Xiao Sanjun
On January 17 this year, "Black Panther 2" was officially announced, and soon "Ant-Man 3" was officially announced on the same day, which is after three and a half years, and once again a Marvel movie is set for the mainland big screen, and there are two. The topic of #Two new Marvel films scheduled in the mainland on Weibo has rushed to the hot search, which can also reflect the excitement of Marvel fans. It's just that more than three years have passed, and hearing such news again, I feel quite like a person.
In recent years, Marvel's new films have always been missing the mainland for various reasons, and changes are quietly unfolding at this time, on the one hand, the Chinese market and audiences are constantly changing, on the other hand, the quality of Marvel movies themselves is gradually declining. So the successive releases of "Black Panther 2" and "Ant-Man 3" can make Marvel regain the hearts of Chinese audiences? More importantly, Marvel and the Chinese market, who needs whom more?
Two new Marvel films are finalized, and the studio told the truth after the joy
"Two new Marvel films are finalized in a row, which must be very welcome from our studio perspective." After dialing the phone, the manager of a Beijing movie theater told Xiaoyu, "For cinemas that rely on films to eat, it is best to have enough new films." First of all, hardcore Marvel fans will definitely return, after all, no new Marvel film has been released in cinemas for more than three years, and it is still very ritualistic to watch "Black Panther 2" in the cinema. ”
Marvel movies have been absent from the mainland big screen for three and a half years, and going to the theater to check in on the occasion of the release of "Black Panther 2" is indeed a thing that can be used as a social currency. However, for the size of this group and the box office that can be driven, the expectations of cinemas are not high, mainly because the number of people is limited, and "Black Panther 2" is not a new film.
There is also the problem of watching enthusiasm. The box office result of "Avengers 4: Endgame" of 4.25 billion yuan is still the box office champion of imported films in mainland film history, can subsequent Marvel films break their own records? After all, after being absent for more than three years, today's audience's enthusiasm for Marvel movies needs to be further verified by the market. Another studio manager told Xiaoyu that he did not have high expectations for the box office performance of "Black Panther 2".
"One of the big problems with Black Panther 2 is that it was last year's film. Many fans have seen it through various channels, and some people will come to the cinema to brush it for the second time, but the proportion is too low, and it is difficult to support too high a box office, and it is estimated that the final box office is about 200 million. As for whether Chinese audiences have lost enthusiasm for Marvel movies, "Black Panther 2" is difficult to tell. Personally, I am more looking forward to the box office performance of "Ant-Man 3". ”
Absent from the big screen for three and a half years, "see you on the net" of Marvel's new film
The last time I saw a Marvel movie in the cinema was "Spider-Man: Far From Home", when fans were still watching "Avengers 4: Endgame", the film won a box office of 1.417 billion yuan, who would have thought that after this movie, Marvel will usher in a three-year break in mainland cinemas.
"Black Widow", released in July 2021, became the first Marvel film to miss the mainland, followed by "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings", "Eternals", "Spider-Man: Homeless", "Doctor Strange 2", "Thor 4"... and other movies, none of them have reached the mainland, which actually creates a kind of division. For many Chinese Marvel fans, their memories are actually stuck in "Avengers 4: Endgame", on the one hand, as the original characters end one by one, the bond that pins on their personal emotions is no longer there, and there is no motivation to continue chasing Marvel movies; On the other hand, new stories and new characters such as "Shang Qi and the Legend of the Ten Rings" and "Eternals" make it difficult for the audience to integrate, coupled with poor viewing channels, these movies do not have a high sense of existence in the hearts of Chinese Marvel fans.
What makes Marvel movies even worse is the problem of "humiliation of China" in the movie, if "see you on the Internet" has become the threshold for some Marvel fans to watch movies, then "humiliation of China" emotionally pushes Marvel movies to the opposite side of the audience.
"Shang Qi" involves a typical "yellow peril" character like "Fu Manchu", "Eternals" deals with the issue of the Hiroshima atomic bomb, and the promotional film of "Doctor Strange 2" directly appears in a scene suspected of "insulting China". These issues could have been discussed within the scope of the film itself, but the word "humiliation" has already led to confrontation emotionally. In addition, some of the remarks made by the Disney CEO were interpreted as Marvel does not need the Chinese market, further trapping Marvel movies in the vortex of public opinion.
Losing is easy to regain and difficult to regain, can Marvel still win back the Chinese market?
Marvel's new film returns to Chinese mainland, and the environment it faces is no longer than it was then, and the current Chinese film market is in a comprehensive recovery stage. In the past Spring Festival file, it achieved a total box office of 6.758 billion yuan, the second largest total box office of the Spring Festival file in Chinese film history, with 129 million moviegoers.
The audience's enthusiasm for watching movies has returned, but can Marvel come up with a good quality movie to attract the audience back? From this point of view, "Black Panther 2" can't save Marvel, and "Ant-Man 3" may not work.
This has to say the problem of Marvel movies, Disney's creation of the Marvel Universe is very successful, but for a long time relying on multiple films to bury Easter eggs with each other, the practice of hooking up with each other is exhausting, and as the Marvel Universe grows larger, the pressure of "making up for lessons" is becoming heavier and heavier. And all kinds of memories kill the audience is already tired of watching, last year's "Spider-Man: Homeless" engaged in the "three worms in the same frame" gimmick, which can indeed strengthen the recognition of fans, and it is also reflected at the box office, but for audiences who are new to Marvel, the quality of the film itself is somewhat lackluster, and the emotional card is hugely lethal, but Marvel movies can't just play the sentiment card.
In the past three years of absence from the Chinese market, Disney began to bet on streaming media Disney+, such as "Black Widow" is released simultaneously with streaming media, "The Mandalorian", "WandaVision", "Falcon and the Winter Soldier" and other Marvel dramas have been launched, which can also see Disney's emphasis on streaming platforms. According to Disney's earnings report, its streaming media business lost $1.47 billion due to increased program production expenses and global expansion costs.
When Disney+ couldn't make up for the losses in a short period of time, the box office became the engine of growth. According to Refinitiv's data, Disney's Q1 revenue in fiscal year 2023 may increase by 7% year-on-year, and its growth point will come from the movie box office, especially "Avatar 2". At present, the global box office of "Avatar 2" is about 2.174 billion US dollars, while the box office from the Chinese market is 245 million US dollars, more than 10%.
Theme parks, as a two-thirds contributor to Disney's operating profits, are also indispensable to the Chinese market. According to the financial report, Disney Parks, Experiences and Consumer Goods achieved revenue of US$7.4 billion in Q4 2022, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, of which Shanghai Disney's performance declined due to the impact of the epidemic. With the full liberalization of China, the total number of visitors of Shanghai Disney will increase, and its performance will gradually recover, which is undoubtedly good news for Disney.
It can be seen that whether it is a theme park or a movie box office, the Chinese market is indispensable for Disney. But will today's Chinese film market rejoice in the return of Marvel movies? If you want to regain the glory of the "Avengers 4" period, I am afraid that Marvel movies will have to work hard.