NIO: Price cut? It's clearance!

Extreme Daily (ID: rancaijingapp) original

Author |  Hui Peng Quan

Edit the |  Rao Xiafei

NIO (09866. HK) has been a bit "bad" lately.

Since the media recently broke the news that "NIO's drop of up to more than 100,000 yuan", there has been continuous discussion on NIO's move on the Internet. #NIO opens price reduction promotion##NIO responds to price reduction promotion# and other topics continue to appear on Sina Weibo's hot search.

However, NIO's response to the "price reduction" is that "a small number of exhibition cars and inventory vehicles enjoy preferential policies." A person close to NIO also said, "It's not a price cut, it's clearing inventory." ”

On February 3, NIO President Qin Lihong also said that NIO has some additional preferential policies based on the age and status of the car, and there is no "price reduction across the board" that is over-interpreted by the outside world. However, he also apologized to NIO owners, "These clearance measures were not widely notified in the form of announcements in advance, and we did not do well enough to accept criticism." ”

However, such a response was not recognized by Yuchen, the owner of NIO ES6 Shanghai. Yuchen told Extreme Daily that NIO's move is undoubtedly a "price reduction in disguise", which is nothing more than appeasing the old car owner, "The reply of the service group is also vague, I have to wait for the official detailed interpretation." ”

Xiao Tang, the owner of the car in Zhejiang, said that he had just picked up the car for more than 1 month, and the sales at that time clearly stated that there would be no such a big discount in the future, and now the difference is tens of thousands of yuan, and the sales said that "I can't do anything." "How difficult it is to make money during the epidemic, it is cut for nothing. Our car owners group is discussing this matter, and if there is anyone defending their rights, I will participate. Don said.

On the question of "why NIO carried out the second round of price reduction and what compensation does it have for old car owners", Jipai Daily consulted relevant people close to NIO, and the interpretation was also that "a small number of exhibition cars and inventory cars have discounts", and the 2022 ES6, ES8 and EC6 are still highly competitive smart electric products in the market, "NIO will carry out long-term update and maintenance of Alder intelligent system software." ”

It is worth noting that NIO's sales in January were also not satisfactory. Data show that on February 1, NIO officially announced that the delivery of new cars in January was 8,506 units, down 11.9% year-on-year and 46.2% month-on-month.

Among the three new forces of "Wei Xiaoli", NIO's advantage is no longer there. Also in January, the ideal sales volume was 15,141 units, an increase of 21.65% year-on-year and a decrease of 29.25% month-on-month.

Zhang Xiang, a visiting professor at the Yellow River Institute of Science and Technology, told Extreme Daily that the essence of NIO's "disguised price reduction" is to adjust the relationship between supply and demand, "Under the front and back attacks of traditional car companies and second-tier new forces, the market space has been squeezed, and NIO's growth rate has slowed down." In addition, sales volume is very important for a listed company like NIO, directly related to the stock price and market capitalization. ”

In fact, NIO's market performance has long been no match for the time when it was popular. As of the close of Hong Kong stocks on February 3, NIO's secondary market share price has fallen to HK$91 per share, with a total market value of only HK$133.6 billion, a decline of more than 42.41% in the past 120 days. As of the close of US stocks on February 4, 2023, Beijing time, NIO's US stock closed at $11.19 per share, with a total market value of only $18.49 billion.

At the highlight moment, NIO's U.S. stock price was six times that of now, corresponding to a market value of $113.3 billion. At that time, the highest market capitalization of Xpeng and Ideal was $63.8 billion and $49.3 billion respectively, and NIO was the "boss". However, as of the close of US stocks on February 4, 2023, Beijing time, the ideal market value is $26.1 billion, which has already surpassed NIO.

Chart: NIO Hong Kong stock price chart

"At present, NIO still relies on financing to maintain operations, and if the market value continues to decline, the funds will also be greatly affected." Zhang Xiang said.

2023 is destined to be an unusual year for NIO.

At the beginning of NIO's "leaning team" turmoil, the turmoil of "cutting prices to harvest old car owners" has risen again, what chess is Li Bin, who has a strong sense of crisis, is playing, and whether NIO's sales in 2023 can "surpass Lexus". This series of questions needs to be answered by NIO in 2023.

Owner: Whether it is a "price reduction" is chilling

When he saw the news of NIO's "price reduction", Yuchen immediately updated his circle of friends, "As a NIO owner, I strongly condemn this behavior." ”

Yuchen told Extreme Daily that the NIO ES6 he bought for more than 400,000 yuan can now be bought for more than 300,000 yuan, and he must be uncomfortable in his heart.

Yuchen also inquired about this matter in the service group, and the reply was that the information on the Internet was somewhat exaggerated, and NIO's promotion policies included a variety of policies, including exhibition policies, replacement policies, financial policies, technology packages, etc., and the purchase of eligible vehicles can enjoy the corresponding policies, and many policies have existed before. If the purchased 2022 866 (NIO ES8, ES6, EC6) does not meet the corresponding conditions, it will not enjoy the relevant promotion policies.

Don Xiao settled an account with Extreme Daily. On December 20, 2022, I proposed the 2022 75kWh sports version, with a guidance price of 386,000 yuan, bought NP (NIO automatic driving assistance system), including "national subsidies", "land subsidies" and limited-time discounts and other discounts, the landing price was more than 390,000 yuan. Now NP is a gift, and if the user chooses 4900 yuan NOMI and 6500 yuan enhanced display, there is also a 9600 yuan discount.

"At first glance, you can buy it for less than 350,000. In more than 1 month, I lost more than 40,000. Xiao Tang said that under the strong promotion of sales, it took her 1 week from ordering the car to picking up the car, "I have a very big psychological gap now, doesn't NIO consider the old car owner, who makes money easily during the epidemic?" ”

The reason why Xiaotang chose NIO is the recommendation of a friend, and he also prefers NIO's power exchange service. "Originally, the experience was quite good, and the free power exchange during the New Year was also good, but now we are wronged." Xiao Tang said that the price of domestic cars was controversial, and it was chilling not to improve the height of its own products and strengthen its brand and service, but to harvest the old car owners.

Xiao Tang also expressed his own demands, "It is not realistic to return the car, either upgrade the rights and interests, or subsidize the points, we can reluctantly accept." ”

Mumu of Anhui Province shared a group chat content of "NIO Leek Owners" with 184 owners, and some owners shared the "New Year Super Package" sold by NIO. It is clearly written inside that the full package (worth 39,000 yuan), NOMI (worth 4,900 yuan), and enhanced display package (worth 6,500 yuan), a total of 50,400 yuan, now only 1,800 yuan.

Photo: "NIO leek owners" group chat content

"Let's not talk about the next few subsidies, I am angry that not only did I spend money on a head-up display and NP, but I also waited 3 months to pick up the car." Mumu said that in this way, she lost at least tens of thousands of yuan.

NIO: It's not a "price reduction", it's a preferential policy

For whether it is a "price reduction", Jipai Daily also contacted a NIO salesperson in Beijing for the first time, who confirmed the preferential information, but at the same time, said, "The car itself does not have much price reduction, but also to ensure a subsequent value retention rate." ”

The salesperson took ES6 as an example, "Now buy a car and get the first year insurance and a full package of 39,000 yuan, plus an interest-free loan, which is almost a discount of about 100,000 yuan." ”

Such a discount, in the eyes of NIO sales, is indeed a "preferential policy". According to CNMO Mobile China report, NIO sales said, "Brother Bin has a hard mouth, and he directly loses face." ”

But in all of Li Bin's remarks, it is indeed "NIO will never reduce prices". Perhaps in Li Bin's view, "price reduction" is obviously an act of "harming users".

Li Bin has repeatedly expressed his gratitude to users. According to "LatePost", in the most difficult time of NIO's 2019, more than 8,000 users resisted the pressure to pay for cars, and it was these more than 8,000 cars that raised more than 3 billion yuan to ease NIO's cash flow pressure. Li Bin also said in an interview with CCTV, "Our users did not give up on us at that point in time, and I am really grateful to them." ”

But now it seems that "gratitude" has obviously failed to be implemented, and even, in the eyes of some NIO old car owners, Li Bin's "good man" character is collapsing, and in the name of "clearing inventory", he cut the old car owner's leeks.

But in the eyes of industry insiders, NIO's action of "clearing inventory" is excusable. According to Bitauto.com, in terms of inventory, NIO ES8 has more inventory, about 2000-3000 vehicles; ES6 inventory is about 1000-2000 units; EC6 is rarer, with fewer than 100 units. Extreme Daily initially estimated that "inventory" can bring at least more than 1 billion yuan of cash flow to NIO.

Photo: NIO ES8 Source/Extreme Daily

In fact, in addition to "clearing inventory", NIO is not under pressure.

In the view of industry experts such as Zhang Xiang, although the problems NIO is now facing are far less severe than in 2019, they are also full of difficulties.

Zhang Xiang said that NIO started early, focusing on the luxury car market, and gained market share in a blue ocean at that time. But now, as traditional car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, and Dongfeng make efforts in the new energy vehicle market, new forces such as Wenjie, Nezha, and Zerorun are catching up, and NIO is suffering from enemies, and the market space is compressed. In addition, serious homogenization is also one of NIO's problems.

Chen Jia, an independent international strategy researcher, agreed with Zhang Xiang's view. Chen Jia told Jipai Daily that domestic brands have adjusted their price marketing strategies to follow Tesla's price reduction, which is a last resort under the current market homogeneous competition pattern. "But the price war brought about by the price reduction cannot really save market share." The decline in sales of domestic brands such as 'Wei Xiaoli' in January is proof of this. ”

In fact, Li Bin knows better than anyone about NIO's current problems.

On the first day of the 2023 New Year, Li Bin sent a letter to all employees, listing all 8 areas of the NIO team that were not excellent in the past year, involving delivery volume, software and hardware quality, data theft, internal communication efficiency and data management system. Of course, Li Bin's letter also revealed the information of the "streamlined team", casting a gray layer on NIO's 2023.

Some automotive industry veterans admitted to Extreme Daily that they are not optimistic about NIO. He explained that when NIO released ES8, it brought in many corporate bosses and partners, and "the smell of capital is strong."

New forces start a price war?

But it is undeniable that NIO's "preferential policy" has indeed brought popularity, even orders.

According to the Securities Times e company, the customer flow of NIO stores has increased significantly in the past two days, and consumers have placed orders directly. Sales at stores said that the inventory of show cars is also decreasing, and the coming week may be a peak for car purchases, and the pick-up cycle is about a week.

"The first quarter of this year is more difficult for car companies, in order to increase sales, we can only use the strategy of 'price reduction'." Zhang Xiang told Extreme Daily.

In fact, the round of "price war" at the beginning of 2023 was initiated by Tesla.

On January 6, Tesla officially announced that the price of models on sale fell by 2-48,000 yuan, which on the one hand caused dissatisfaction among new car owners and even protected their rights; on the other hand, it allowed more consumers to enter Tesla stores and place orders to buy cars, and Tesla China has obtained 30,000 car orders in 3 days.

Subsequently, car companies such as Qianjie and Xpeng chose to follow up. However, from the sales volume in January 2023, Qianjie sold 4,490 vehicles and Xpeng sold 5,218 units, both of which decreased by more than 50% month-on-month, and the sales effect brought by the price reduction was not obvious.

Speaking of the "price war" of new energy vehicles, Chen Jia told Extreme Daily that the "Wei Xiaoli" have insufficient strategic initiative in the domestic market and are forced to accept the price war detonated by Tesla, and the intensification of homogeneous competition in the domestic market is an inevitable key factor for the price war.

"If new energy manufacturers cannot compete with Tesla in terms of technological innovation, then they can only continue to be forced to follow Tesla's price war." Chen Jia said.

In Zhang Xiang's view, "although the price war can promote the survival of the fittest in the entire industry, allow the head enterprises to obtain greater market space, thereby accelerating the development of the new energy automobile industry, but for enterprises with less capital and backward technical level, it is even worse and faces the result of elimination." ”

Photo: Xpeng P7 Source/Extreme Daily

Even He Xiaopeng, who has a cash flow of 40 billion yuan, said that in the next five years, a large number of car companies will be eliminated like the previous five years. Therefore, enterprises must do a good job in costs and profits.

However, in addition to BYD's profits, there are few profitable car companies in domestic enterprises. On January 30, 2023, BYD released its 2022 performance report, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 16-17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 425.42-458.26%.

In contrast, the data of "Wei Xiaoli" is much inferior. NIO's net loss in the third quarter of 2022 was RMB4,110.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 392.1%; Xpeng's net loss in the third quarter was 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%; The ideal net loss was 1.65 billion yuan, an increase of 7554% year-on-year.

On February 1, 2023, major new energy vehicle companies announced January sales volumes, which decreased month-on-month, including BYD, Tesla and Wei Xiaoli, except for Denza up 10.77% month-on-month. Among them, Nezha and Zerorun even fell by more than 90% month-on-month.

The difficulties of new energy vehicles in 2023 can be seen.

Therefore, in Chen Jia's view, the urgency of Chinese brands to strengthen independent innovation and get rid of the low-end market price war is incomparable.

"Accelerating the optimization layout of the brand's global industrial chain and the stable production and supply of the supply chain, vigorously enhancing independent intellectual property innovation and creating a high-end product line that meets market demand is not only the general direction of strategic transformation forced by Tesla's explosive price war, but also an inevitable choice for Chinese new energy vehicle brands to enhance their core competitiveness."

For those new forces in car manufacturing, whether it is "clearing inventory" or other strategies, they must face up to the pressure they face and find ways to solve these problems, as is the case with "Wei Xiaoli", and the same is true for subsequent new car companies.

Resources:

"NIO opens price reduction, internal employees respond: directly reducing too much face like Xiaopeng", source: Mobile China;

"Fire Exploration Shop: Want to copy NIO 866? Don't worry, it's not time yet", source: Tencent.com;

Can't Stop! NIO reduced the price by 100,000? There are customers who place orders on the spot, sales: few people meet all the conditions, the company's latest response", source: Securities Times.

*Image source: NIO official public account.

*In the text, Yuchen, Xiaotang, and Mumu are pseudonyms.