In 2023, new energy vehicles are expected to continue their high growth, and the industry will welcome a new round of reshuffle

New energy vehicles will usher in explosive growth in 2022. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be 6.887 million units, and the market share will increase to 25.6%. In 2023, the mainland's new energy vehicle purchase subsidies will be officially withdrawn, can the rapid growth momentum of new energy vehicles continue? Can Continental new energy vehicles continue to maintain their leading edge? On related issues, the reporter recently interviewed industry experts.

From policy-driven to market-driven

Affected by the withdrawal of "national subsidies", the performance of the new energy vehicle terminal market around New Year's Day 2023 is relatively contrasting. A new energy vehicle salesperson said that many consumers choose to buy cars in advance in order to enjoy subsidies, and the number of visitors to stores after New Year's Day has decreased.

However, the production and sales side of the industry are making efforts for the market recovery. Mr. Liu, a Beijing citizen, told reporters that because the manufacturer's preferential treatment was large, his purchase plan was not affected by the end of the subsidy, and he ordered an electric car after New Year's Day.

Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, recently said that at present, high-end electric vehicles are basically not affected by the withdrawal of subsidies, and A0 class (small cars) have limited impact due to less subsidies, and mid-price models are greatly affected.

Since 2009, the policy of "1000 cities and 1000 vehicles" (the demonstration and application project of 1000 cities and 10000 energy-saving and new energy vehicles implemented from 2009 to 2012) has been implemented, and by the end of 2022, the new energy vehicle purchase subsidy will end, and the financial subsidy for new energy vehicles in mainland China has been implemented for 13 years. Shen Chengpeng, communication consultant of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, believes that the series of incentive policies and financial subsidy policies introduced by the mainland are the most important factors for the new energy vehicle industry to start from scratch and change lanes and overtake.

In 2023, the new energy vehicle subsidy will officially leave the market, and the marketization stage will officially begin. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that new energy vehicles have officially entered a period of comprehensive market-oriented expansion and ushered in a new stage of development and growth.

Zhang Yongwei believes that the new energy vehicle market has entered a stage of large-scale development, and demand will continue to be released. Specifically, in addition to the withdrawal of subsidy policies, the factors restricting incremental development mainly include fierce international competition and increased supply chain instability. Favorable factors include unprecedented market supply capacity, intelligent technology and product innovation, low-carbon development strategy driven, and pro-consumption policies. If properly coped, fully grasp the favorable factors, and promote the transformation of automotive and parts enterprises, supply chains and value chains, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to maintain a growth rate of 30% to 40%, reaching 10 million units, becoming the first country in the world to enter the 10 million annual sales of new energy vehicles.

There is a wide space for sinking markets and overseas markets

In 2022, the new energy penetration rate of passenger cars in Continental reached 27.6%, an increase of 12.6 percentage points over 2021.

"In the future, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China will increase rapidly." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Association, said that the expert team of the association predicts that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in mainland China will be 8.5 million units in 2023, and the overall sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense will be 23.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 36% in 2023.

Industry insiders believe that the incremental space of the domestic new energy vehicle market in 2023 mainly depends on the following aspects: the market of second- and third-tier cities and below, overseas markets, and the market share of fuel vehicles.

Zhang Yongwei said that in the past, the main market for new energy vehicles was in first-tier cities, and now second- and third-tier cities and below will become huge incremental markets for electrification. Data show that in the first 11 months of 2022, new energy vehicle sales in second- and third-tier cities and below accounted for 54% of the country, and the proportion is expected to exceed 60% in 2023.

Overseas markets are an important growth point for China's automotive industry in the future. Mainland new energy vehicle exports have been growing rapidly for three consecutive years, reaching 679,000 units in 2022.

"China has become the second largest exporter of automobiles, and the proportion of new energy models is increasing." Zhang Yongwei introduced that in 2022, a number of automakers and supply chain companies have announced expansion plans, including Geely, Great Wall, BYD, CATL, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc., and it is expected that China's vehicle exports and industrial chain exports will continue to grow in 2023, and new energy vehicle exports are expected to approach 800,000 units.

The industry will welcome a new round of reshuffle

On January 5, BYD officially released its new high-end car brand "Yangwang". For a long time, the million-yuan high-end market has been firmly occupied by traditional automobile brands, and in the era of electrification, Chinese car companies represented by BYD have mastered technological opportunities.

Cui Dongshu said that China's demand for high-end new energy vehicles is generally strong, and the penetration rate will also reach a high level. At present, due to the slow promotion of high-end electrification of imported cars and joint venture luxury vehicles, most of the high-end market share is occupied by independent electric vehicle brands.

Zhang Yongwei said that the automotive industry is accelerating iteration, and the market structure is still changing and evolving. From the perspective of development trend, new automakers may continue to compete fiercely through product upgrades and brand building in 2023. From the supply side, the key to determining the car experience is the level of intelligence. Some key smart technologies will become standard, and technologies such as assisted driving and autonomous parking will become the basic requirements for consumers to buy cars. Cruising, blind spots, car following and other technologies will become an important basis for consumers' choice. Intelligent cockpits will gradually become standard in cars.

"There will be more to see in the automotive industry in 2023 because more technological forces will participate." Zhang Yongwei said that scientific and technological forces will become a new engine for the transformation of the automotive industry. The complementary factor resources of technology enterprises and vehicle enterprises can help the rapid transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry, and the two sides will gradually develop from one-way empowerment to two-way empowerment, accelerating the formation of a new industrial ecology of mutual benefit and win-win and innovative development. (Economic Daily reporter Liu Jin)