Rhino Entertainment Original
Text| Nam Rumin, Editor| Park Fang
The Spring Festival file officially started, and the first day of the New Year was in full swing, and the results of 1.3 billion+ were obtained in a single day, and the overall performance was still very good.
In fact, to measure the overall volume of the Spring Festival file, many people pay too much attention to its opening performance, from the marketing of the major film parties, to the pre-sale battle, all point to the performance of the first big market, although the performance of the first day of the new year is important, but the Spring Festival file is more of a trend, and the subsequent trend is obviously more critical. Now that the first battle of the Spring Festival stall is over, there are still many highlights.
The script of the Spring Festival file was reversed one after another
This year's Spring Festival file still has many highlights, from the pre-sale period of the three hegemons, to today's double hero pattern, especially after the first year of the first year, the position of each film has also changed, there is still a lot of suspense, presumably the next reversal of the script will continue. Unfortunately, the final plate performance was still relatively average, and it failed to break through the 1.4 billion mark on the first day of the new year.
Pre-sales are not the same as the final box office, and high pre-sales do not necessarily keep the advantage last. "The Wandering Earth 2" did not use the advantages of its super IP and word-of-mouth sequel to launch a high fight as everyone thought, and even surpassed "Manjiang Hong" at the last moment of the pre-sale period, but with the official release on the first day, it really showed the invincible mode of passers-by, and its mass base was too strong.
Soon the trend of the first day of the Spring Festival file has formed, with the huge advantage of the incremental market, "The Wandering Earth 2" opened the gap with other films, and got a volume of nearly 500 million on the first day, which ranked fifth in history. According to the current situation of each film, "The Wandering Earth 2" will also become the most powerful contender for the final championship.
Zhang Yimou's "Manjiang Red" can be described as very amazing, cutting 400 million box office on the first day, which also entered the ranks of the historical TOP7. Relying on Yi Yangqianxi's top traffic to attract fan blessings, he maintained the position of champion for a long time in the pre-sale stage. And Zhang Yimou, Shen Teng and other huge passers-by helped its advantages in the incremental market, and the two merged into one, and finally achieved such brilliant results.
"Nameless", which maintained the third position during the pre-sale period, has become a major variable in the Spring Festival file. Finally, in the opening performance of the first year of junior high school, the film was even overtaken by "Bear Haunted 10" for a while, due to the overdraft of fan purchasing power in advance during the pre-sale period, resulting in limited blessings on the first day. Fortunately, the quality of the film is still good and can be guaranteed in the stock market.
The thunderous "Bear Haunted" series may become one of the winners this year, the film easily broke the opening record of the series, got 130 million + on the first day, and became the king of attendance in the entire Spring Festival file. In the Spring Festival files over the years, "Bear Haunted" is often overlooked, but it has always had stable results. The Spring Festival file "Bear Haunted" seems to be a benchmark, and surpassing it is not an easy task.
The only comedy "Exchange of Life" achieved 130 million on the first day, and its performance was basically in line with expectations. This year's situation is more special, although the only comedy has a certain advantage, but the advantage of the genre is overwhelmed by the potential energy of several blockbusters. Especially under the suppression of the two giants "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Manjiang Red", the arrangement space of many films will be affected.
"Deep Sea", which ranked at the bottom of the first year, has achieved 70 million + results, and the film belongs to a very unique existence, which cannot be described as a simple niche. Often in this case, market performance is difficult to guarantee, but there is a basic market disk, after all, it has a certain audience base. As the most stylized Spring Festival film, the next trend of "Deep Sea" is particularly noteworthy.
If from the data alone, more than 1.3 billion is obviously not ideal, the reason is that "Chinese Table Tennis" is absent from the first day of the first year, the overall number is not enough, the average length of the film is too long, resulting in a 24% decline in the arrangement compared with the same period last year, which is undoubtedly an important reason for the poor start of the first year of this year. From another point of view, in such a difficult situation, only 6 films have achieved 1.3 billion+ results, this achievement is not easy, can not be described as a street, the overall performance has met expectations.
Although the start was unfavorable, it was optimistic about the follow-up performance
From the perspective of historical data, this year's 1.3 billion+ box office is not only lower than last year's 1.454 billion, but also down 20% from the peak of 1.692 billion in 2021. This result is also a new low in the past five years, and the 1.3 billion+ result is still obtained with the huge blessing of two fan attribute films. But the standard for measuring the Spring Festival should not stop at the first day of the new year.
As mentioned earlier, the Spring Festival file is not only about the first day of the first year, and even it is far less important, and over the years we have witnessed countless cases of the first year of the first year and finally being counterattacked. For this year, after the low-key opening, the subsequent trend will be greatly guaranteed. If from the perspective of word of mouth and quality, even this year has confirmed the title of the strongest Spring Festival file in history.
(Ratings of various films in the Spring Festival file)
From the level of word of mouth, this year's 6 films in the Spring Festival file have achieved the feat of breaking nine in an all-round way, that is, the Maoyan and Taoqiao ticket scores of all Spring Festival films have exceeded 9 points. On average, the Maoyan score of the 6 films in the Spring Festival file is 9.25 points, and the Taoqiao ticket is 9.3, such a high-level session, has really won the strongest Spring Festival file in the objective score.
Coincidentally, the top two at the box office list "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Manjiang Red" also got the highest ratings, and the two films reached an astonishing 9.55 points on average in Maoyan and Taobao tickets. I believe that with these two seed players who are popular and word-of-mouth, it is difficult for any other film to counterattack like in previous years. And the next championship battle of the Spring Festival file will also be produced between "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Manjiang Red".
In terms of other films, they all have very good word-of-mouth performance, and they are basically at the same level. Among them, "Nameless" has achieved ratings of 9.1 and 9.2 on Maoyan and Taoqiao respectively, as a spy war film, the score is enough, although it cannot reverse the previous seeds, but at least it can have a certain guarantee in the trend.
"Bear Haunted 9" is as stable as ever, and this robustness is not only reflected in the box office, but also has a 9 points+ output every year. After breaking the series box office record last year, this year may set a new box office high again. "Exchange Life" as a comedy, also achieved Maoyan, Taoqiao ticket broke 9, although it is not superior in word of mouth, but from the experience of the years, it is still expected to walk out of the stability curve.
Including the controversial "Deep Sea", in the broken word-of-mouth, the score is still stable at more than 9 points. The overall quality this year is very high, but everyone is high, there is not much gap, for some films with average popularity, the difficulty of its counterattack is also increasing, and in the end perhaps the overall stability prevails, and the advantages of the two seed films will be retained until the end.
Of course, the overall high quality means that the overall market has strong endurance, and when each one does not fall behind, the market's ability to resist and stop falling will be the best in the past. Therefore, even if the opening of this year's first painting is relatively low-key, it is expected to eventually surpass last year's results by virtue of battery life, which can be regarded as a good start for 2023.