If the Spring Festival file does not increase the price, can it drive the rejuvenation of the cinema?

Author | Zhao Ruoci

Edit the | Liu Yang

The bustle of the cinema is back.

"I'm already busy, and I've just checked the films copied by all the servers in the hall." A Hai, a staff member of a cinema in Jinan, Shandong, told "Leopard Change".

Recently, he has been busy checking various projectors and ticket machines, preparing enough ticket paper, stocking up on snack goods, popcorn ingredients and raw materials for machine drinks, and finding restaurants that are normally open during the New Year in advance and ordering meals for the staff of the studio. Now everything is ready, just wait for the audience to enter on the first day of the new year.

On January 21, the eighth day of the pre-sale of the Spring Festival file, according to the box office list of the new film of the 2023 Spring Festival file of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 10 pm, the total box office of the pre-sale has exceeded 800 million yuan. This year's Spring Festival films range from sci-fi, comedy, action, to sports inspirational and animation, which can be described as "fairy fight". Among them, "The Wandering Earth" ranked first on the new film pre-sales list with 242 million, "Manjiang Hong" ranked second with 238 million pre-sales, and "Nameless" ranked third with 149 million pre-sales.

From January 24, 2020, when cinemas nationwide urgently stopped screening, to January 1, 2023, the operating rate of cinemas nationwide was 100%. The cinema is open, and good films are needed to save the market. The Spring Festival stall is the largest box office capacity every year and the most prone to box office dark horses, and after a long silence in the cinema, the first Spring Festival stall after "release" is regarded by the industry as a "battle of confidence".

Is the film market expected to gradually recover driven by the Spring Festival?

1. Cinema, the long-lost "big year"

"This year's Spring Festival stall, not only 'OK', is the strongest Spring Festival stall. It makes me want to cry, it's like a dream. "Ah Hai is not only a studio staff, but also a veteran fan. Two months ago, his theater was closed due to the epidemic, and his salary was less than 2,000 yuan a month, and he was still worried that he "didn't know how to celebrate the New Year".

In December, the prevention and control was optimized, theaters across the country opened one after another, and "Avatar 2" also appeared on the big screen at this node, although the box office was not as expected, but it was also the beginning of the theater recovery. And this year's Spring Festival file is a "surprise" for theater practitioners and audiences.

During the release of "Avatar", the most popular discussions were "high ticket prices" and "concerns about the epidemic". A month ago, many people also pinched a sweat for the Spring Festival file in 2023, and by the last day of 2022, only "The Wandering Earth 2", "Manjiang Red" and "Bear Haunted, Bear Core" are scheduled for the Spring Festival.

But as soon as you enter 2023, the situation of the Spring Festival file suddenly becomes clear, and all blockbusters are announced at the speed of almost one in two days, and then each family began to publicize intensively, posters, trailers have whetted the audience's appetite, and for a time you can always see information related to the Spring Festival file on the hot search of major social platforms.

Finally, this year's Spring Festival file, 7 new films gathered.

In the Spring Festival of 2019, the Chinese phenomenal sci-fi film "The Wandering Earth" topped the fourth "counterattack" at the box office on the first day, and finally won 4.696 billion yuan at the box office, which made the audience look forward to this year's "The Wandering Earth 2". "Manjiang Hong" is director Zhang Yimou's second year to compete in the Spring Festival file, gathering a "magical" lineup including Shen Teng, Yi Yangqianxi, Zhang Yi, Lei Jiayin, and Yue Yunpeng. In "Nameless", Wang Yibo and Liang Chaowei played against each other, and they have accumulated a high degree of popularity before the screening.

"Exchange Life" is Zhang Xiaofei's second big screen work during the Spring Festival after the hit of "Hello, Li Huanying", and it is also the only family comedy for this year's Spring Festival. "Chinese Table Tennis" is adapted from the real incident of the real Chinese men's table tennis "Five Tigers" counterattack, directed by Deng Chao and Yu Baimei again, with Wu Jing participating. In addition, there is the domestic animation "Deep Sea" that has been carefully polished for 7 years and the annual "Bear Haunted, Bear Core".

This year's blockbusters, not only have a luxurious lineup, but also can be called "the strongest in history", according to statistics, the average length of the 7 films in the 2023 Spring Festival file exceeds 130 minutes, which is the "longest in history". The average length of the Spring Festival file last year was 108 minutes, and in 2021 it was 121 minutes. This year's "The Wandering Earth 2" is 172 minutes long, "Manjiang Red" is 159 minutes, and the two super feature films have lengthened the average,

It is worth mentioning that according to Lighthouse Pro data, the average pre-sale ticket price on New Year's Day this year is 54.8 yuan (including service fees), down from 56.1 yuan in the same period in 2022.

The audience also has a clear perception of "increasing the amount without increasing the price". Xu Guang, who lives in a small county, told "Leopard Change": "The "This Killer Is Not Too Calm" bought last year was 57.9 a piece, and this year's pre-sale ticket prices here are basically below 50 yuan, and I just bought two tickets for "Exchange Life", plus various preferential deductions, spending a total of 69.8 yuan. ”

In this way, from last year's "most expensive Spring Festival file in history" to this year's "most crowded Spring Festival file in history" and "increase the amount without increasing the price", the film market is returning to rationality.

2, film and television companies, a key battle

This year's Spring Festival file has high hopes from all parties.

This year is the first time that a film has tried to be released on the third peak of the Lunar New Year. On January 16, the movie "Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back" released the news on its official Weiwei, and the film was released on the third day of the Lunar New Year. The propaganda text reads: "Although the victory is late, on the third day of the Lunar New Year, may you turn over against the wind!" "It not only fits the theme of the movie, but also expresses the expectations of the box office of the movie.

Mainstream head movies start the box office battle during the pre-sale period, and the second half of the schedule is more likely to appear "dark horses" because of word of mouth. For example, in the 2021 Spring Festival file, the much-anticipated "Detective Chinatown 3" was originally placed on high hopes, but after its release, word of mouth fell off a cliff, and "Hello, Li Huanying" in the same year was not favored by the market at first, but later because it won the box office championship in one fell swoop, it finally became a phenomenal work in the history of Chinese films with a box office of 5.4 billion yuan.

With commercial blockbusters gathering, "Chinese Table Tennis" chose to actively avoid the head mainstream movies and release it later in the holiday, which may be a wise choice.

In addition, the pre-sale of this year's Spring Festival file opened late, and the film was set and announced for a short time, which also caught the theater off guard, and in the pre-sale stage, the scheduled film and the pre-sale box office could not be completely matched.

On the day of the opening of pre-sale on January 14, "Nameless" ranked first at the pre-sale box office, and "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2" ranked second or third, but in terms of the proportion of films, "Nameless" accounted for only 16%, "The Wandering Earth 2" accounted for 30.6%, and "Manjiang Hong" accounted for 20.8%.

"A little anxious, because this year's "The Wandering Earth 2" has a lot of schedules but it doesn't sell well, and even there is an empty hall on New Year's Day." Two days before the first day of the new year, Li Ping, the store manager of a movie theater in Qingdao, told "Leopard Change". "But this year's films should sell their tickets." Despite some anxiety, the gathering of good films during the Spring Festival makes Li Ping's expectations for the market still optimistic.

As the schedule gets closer and closer, the box office of "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Manjiang Red" surpassed "Nameless" and exceeded 100 million. As of January 21, "The Wandering Earth 2" has pre-sold 243 million, and "Manjiang Red" has pre-sold 239 million.

For the film and television companies behind the movie, the Spring Festival file is not only a "turnaround" for the return of funds, but also brings together the head projects invested by major film and television companies, and the box office performance of the Spring Festival file will also predict the trend of the film market that year.

In the past year, almost all film and television companies have been under pressure.

Bona Film's "Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake" in the 2022 Spring Festival file, although not as good as "Changjin Lake", also achieved a box office of 4.06 billion. Subsequently, last year's "Four Seas", "Mozart in Outer Space" and "The End of the Sea is a Steppe" were all hits. According to the financial report, Bona Film's revenue in the third quarter of 2022 was 303 million yuan, down 46.59% year-on-year, and the loss was 151 million yuan, down 422.45% year-on-year.

This year's Spring Festival file, Bona pressed his hopes on "Nameless". Due to the blessing of labels such as "Top Wang Yibo Transformation" and "Liang Chaowei and Zhou Xun Cooperate Again after 10 Years", even if the number of films is not the most, it is still far ahead at the box office on the day of pre-sale.

Wanda Film's 2022 is also not good. Financial report data shows that in the first three quarters of 2022, Wanda Film's business decreased by 16.73% year-on-year, with a loss of 533 million yuan. Wanda is also counting on the "Wandering Earth 2" and "Bear Haunted" invested in this year's Spring Festival to win back a city.

"Bear Haunted" has been "muffled to make a fortune" in recent years, because of its suitable attributes for "family reunion year", last year's "Bear Haunted, Return to Earth" box office exceeded 900 million, becoming the highest-grossing national comic film in the past two years, this year Wanda is estimated to also expect "Bear Haunted" to become the first national comic film to break 1 billion after "Jiang Ziya".

According to the statistics of "Deep Sound", a total of 172 film and television companies (not deduplicated) participated in the production and distribution of this year's Spring Festival. Among them, "The Wandering Earth 2" has the largest number of participants, with 4 main producers and 35 joint producers, 12 more than in the first part. All film and television companies are waiting for a "big year".

3. Three years of cold winter, the theater is still waiting for spring

According to statistics from the National Film Administration, the total box office of films nationwide in 2022 was 30.067 billion yuan, down about 36% from 47 billion yuan in the previous year. The national box office revenue of this year's New Year's Day file also set the worst box office result in the same period since 2016.

The small cinema in Xu Guang's hometown carries his Spring Festival memories for many years. "About a decade ago, you had to go to the scene to buy tickets to see a movie, and once our movie theater had a discount, and the movie theater was even crowded with people queuing up to buy tickets. In recent years, the most impressive thing is "The Wandering Earth", when the first part was released, I couldn't buy tickets in the pre-sale stage, and I watched it with friends only in the fourth or fifth day of junior high school. Later, "Hello, Li Huanying" was also, I could only buy a very late performance, crying with my friends on the head, and it was early in the morning after watching it. ”

Last year, after flipping through the records of searching tickets, Xu Guang remembered that he had gone to the small cinema in the county to see "Massacre on the Nile" and "Sniper", "Later, these two were all deserted, and only one or two people booked tickets." After that, it seems that I rarely think of going to the movies. Xu Guang told "Leopard Change".

This year's Spring Festival file, indeed lively for a long time, Xu Guang has booked a ticket for "Exchange Life" on the first day of the new year, "Buy one to test the water first, and see everyone's feedback on other films." ”

On February 1, 2022, the first day of the Lunar New Year, the market closed at 1.454 billion, with 25.93 million moviegoers, and the average ticket price was a record high. Compared with 2021, the number of moviegoers fell by about 25%, and the ticket price increased by about 15%. In June, the market closed at 1.92 billion, with 52.9 million moviegoers, the lowest in the same period since statistics were available.

Wearing masks to watch movies and sit at intervals has gradually become the norm in theaters. During the epidemic, few theaters opened their doors. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, the three new films "Bursting Butterfly", "Spring Water Stars" and "Lin Shen Shi Lu" released on November 4, 2022 had a first-day box office of 600 yuan, 94 yuan and 56 yuan respectively.

On the first day of the Lunar New Year in 2021, the box office of "Detective Chinatown 3" reached 1.019 billion, and the box office of "Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake" on the first day of release in 2022 was 641 million. At present, only from the perspective of pre-sales, there is still a gap between this year's Spring Festival file and previous years, but from the perspective of word of mouth, these blockbusters have the potential to become "dark horses".

"I've waited for a year, it's been this month!" Li Ping told "Leopard Change", her tone was a little happy. Based on data such as the popularity of the film, duration, and pre-sale data of the market, Tuopu Data predicts that the market at the beginning of this year is expected to be the same as in 2022, and the box office will reach 1.43 billion.

For cinemas, it is not only the Spring Festival that brings hope, after three and a half years, the return of superhero films to domestic theaters has brought confidence to the future of cinemas. On January 17, "Black Panther 2" and "Ant-Man 3" were announced at the same time. "Black Panther 2" will be released in the mainland on February 7, "Ant-Man 3", that is, "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantum Frenzy" is scheduled to be released simultaneously in China and the United States on February 17, in addition, on January 18, DC officially announced the movie "Thunder Shazam! Wrath of the Gods is about to be released in Chinese mainland, and the set date is to be determined.

Compared with the "several movies eating one quarter" of the Spring Festival file in the previous two years, this year's Spring Festival has not yet begun, and it can be predicted that after the excitement of the Spring Festival file, there will be a superhero series that can continue to drive the recovery of theaters. Perhaps, spring is really not far away.

(At the request of interviewees, the characters in the article are pseudonyms)