[Text/Observer Network columnist Demon King]
On 19 January, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern abruptly announced his resignation.
The news detonated New Zealand and even international public opinion, my own mobile phone also rang non-stop, colleagues, friends, family and even vegetable sellers were talking about it, and even I heard my elementary school child chatting with his classmates: "You know, the prime minister has resigned, there will be big problems after New Zealand..."
However, from the perspective of public opinion temperature, there is still a difference between New Zealand and abroad, and the reaction outside New Zealand is mostly a state of confusion, while New Zealand is "mixed".
A political career with ups and downs
Ardern was born in 1980, as a post-80s her, she became New Zealand's "youngest ever parliamentarian" in 2008 and "youngest prime minister ever" in 2017.
After the 2019 Christchurch shooting, she wore a headscarf to comfort the Muslim victims, and "hugged" the world: this fraternity of white Western to the "old enemy of the millennium" Muslims, who excitedly projected her photo on the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, and the Western world gave her rave of praise.
Ardern's "Hug" (Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
As a result, she has appeared on the covers of various magazines, and Hollywood has even made her films. And in New Zealand, her Labor Party instantly topped 50 per cent in an all-time history, fans posted her face on the streets and observers invented a term — "Jacindamania" — to describe the tide of public opinion. At the same time, the factions within the Labour Party were united as never before by submission.
At that time, many people seemed to think that Ardern's glorious reputation would stay with her throughout her life, and that her Labour Party would be in power for a long time because of her popularity.
Less than four years later, however, Labour faced low support. Now Ardern has not only resigned as prime minister and party leader, but even announced that he will not run for parliament this year, which is a direct resignation from the political arena. This feeling reminds me of Baldwin IV, the "Leper" who died young, and laments the impermanence of life.
In Ardern's resignation statement, a thick negative energy can be read.
She said she had done everything for the country and that she was "no longer had enough in the tank" to do the job; She also told her young daughter, "Mom looks forward to your presence when school starts this year," and to her fiancé, Clark, who has been unable to marry because of his busy schedule, "We can finally get married."
This kind of public expression of family affection also seems to reveal a certain dissatisfaction with the current situation.
Ardern's resignation was more of a result of heavy political pressure than a whim. This is somewhat similar to former Prime Minister John Key who suddenly resigned in 2016 to "return to family", and it also makes many people feel that New Zealand's prime minister seems to particularly love resigning and engaging in a "return to family" narrative.
Is the profession of prime minister really so "terrible"?
Ardern's negative energy comes mainly from the various crises that New Zealand is facing.
New Zealand's bank rates have soared to a 30-year high, hurting business owners, while rising prices hurt wage earners. At the same time, the labor force is rapidly losing to other countries, and the deterioration of domestic security has forced the Chinese who have always been at ease to take to the streets to protest.
In addition, many of Labour's past policies, such as the Water System Reform (Three Water Reform) and the Indigenous Equal Rights Reform (He Puapua), have caused great social controversy and even ethnic divisions. And many of the things that Labour has promised, such as the Kiwibuild scheme to tackle the housing shortage, have been completed in fractions of the way and are quite ugly.
Unfortunately, Ardern's political allies have also wavered: within the party, when Ardern tried to turn to the United States in Sino-US relations in 2022, he was publicly warned by party bosses to "not stand on the wrong side of history"; Outside the party, the Green Party, which has been a "follower" for many years, believes that the "cross-party agreement between workers and greens" is "toxic" because of differences on environmental issues; In the market, Ardern's strict anti-epidemic policies and emission reduction policies have also provoked endless demonstrations and rallies.
Rally opponents of Ardern's anti-epidemic policies 'fight for a long time' in front of Parliament House (Photo/New Zealand media)
The political crisis caused by so many issues has put Ardern "under a lot of pressure". Multiple polls have shown that Labour's support is lower than that of the opposition National Party, and re-election in this year's general election is in doubt. At the same time, New Zealanders' attitude towards Ardern has also turned from the "Jacinda mania" of the past 180 degrees to the current full grumbling.
After growing disillusionment with the direction the government is heading, many New Zealanders are now celebrating Ardern's resignation.
New Zealand journalist and Daily Mail columnist Dan Wooton was harshly critical of Ardern, saying her leadership had led to "economic disaster". "Jacinda Ardern resigned as Prime Minister of New Zealand and she was well aware that she was about to be brutally ousted by New Zealanders," he said. New Zealanders have become aware of her authoritarianism, hypocritical kindness during the pandemic and the economic disaster she has caused to an amazing country. ”
The "rumors" came true
In fact, as early as last October, there were many rumors from within the Labour Party, the most striking of which was that "Ardern is about to resign". In this regard, Ardern also solemnly refuted the rumor.
Relevant reports of New Zealand Chinese media at that time
However, who would have thought that Ardern, who had painstakingly refuted rumors that he "would not resign before the election", would categorically announce his departure in less than 3 months. It can be seen that the "rumors" at that time may not be completely groundless. Therefore, we can also recall in passing what other "rumors" were in October last year: "Ardern will go to the United Nations" and "Ardern stepped down so as not to lose the election during her administration". Of course, Ardern denied it one by one.
The various chain crises generated after the new crown epidemic are quite difficult for Western governments to solve, which makes almost all Western countries have changed their governing parties after the epidemic, and the low support rate of the New Zealand Labor Party may not even be re-elected, which is actually expected.
But the new government after the change of ruling party will remain a "Western government" and will do little to resolve the crisis of its predecessor – a point that many of Ardern's opponents know. They would certainly cheer Ardern's resignation, but they all soon realized that a potential replacement might not be much better.
Who will pick up this "mess"?
In New Zealand, even children know that the country is in a bad situation. After Ardern announced his resignation, Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson announced that he would not take over the post of prime minister, which shows how hot the position is.
It stands to reason that the post of prime minister is "glorious and bright", and there should be various people who break their heads to compete for the post of prime minister; But now it seems that it is a mess that has been left in front of everyone, and everyone seems to be very humble about it.
After all, dealing with such a mess is not as lighthearted as a show speech, and requires a lot of governing experience, and New Zealand's democracy lacks the bureaucracy's long-term training of politicians. Many of the parliamentarians present here were just ordinary people living their own small lives a few years ago, and they can fool around when the national conditions are going well; Once the country encounters a challenge, when it is time to see the truth, many politicians show their timidity.
Of course, the Labour Party is not entirely devoid of talent. The list of potential new prime ministers in the Labour Party was already in place when the "rumours" of "Ardern's resignation" came out last October, and New Zealanders are now speculating passionately about the topic.
The popular versions are slightly different, but each seems to feature Michael Wood, the current secretary of immigration, transportation and labor.
Wood, also born in 1980, is also "young and promising". Born in a trade union, he was humble, low-key and down-to-earth, mingled with the masses, and was loved by his party colleagues. He joined the Labor whip in 2019, a position often reserved for New Zealand political parties.
As transportation minister, Wood spearheaded the city's rail program to improve transportation by bringing in EPBs from China and naming them "Dame Whina Cooper"
In addition, there are several popular candidates, such as Chris Hipkin, born in 1978, an experienced senior Labour MP, who became the Minister of Education in 2017 and was appointed Minister of Health in 2020, successfully coped with the new crown epidemic, and is currently serving as New Zealand's Minister of Education, Minister of Police, Minister of Public Services and Speaker of Parliament.
Another example is Nanaia Mahuta, New Zealand's foreign minister and local government minister, spearheaded by the controversial "Three Waters Reform." Mahuta, the daughter of Sir Robert Mahuta, the late Maori Queen's foster brother and Maori elder, has a very striking Maori traditional facial tattoo symbolizing her place among the Māori ethnic group. Much of the speculation that she could be prime minister's successor is her bid for Labour leadership in 2014. As New Zealand's foreign minister, she takes a neutral stance on South Pacific national affairs between the United States and China, and in late 2022 she said the region was "uncomfortable with any superpower."
epilogue
Whoever takes over as Prime Minister will be very serious and even somewhat desperate for him/her.
Because many of New Zealand's problems may not be solved by New Zealanders: for example, the problem of high interest rates, New Zealand bank interest rates are forced to follow the rise of US bank interest rates (otherwise wealth will be sucked away by the United States); Another example is the problem of labor loss, which is caused by Western allies such as Australia in New Zealand; The soaring crime rate in New Zealand society is more due to the psychosocial reasons of the entire Western cultural circle. No matter how to deal with it, New Zealand's "thin arm" seems to be difficult to twist the "thigh" of the environment.
Perhaps the new prime minister must be a political genius to get New Zealand out of trouble. However, if the above candidates have genius, then why didn't they come out to help Ardern turn the tide before? It is possible that whoever takes over as prime minister will end up being just a "temporary worker", so even if some politicians have actively run for party leadership, they do not want to show their heads now.
Perhaps the children are right, but Ardern's picks and "no gas in the tank" reflect that New Zealand's challenges are unstoppable. There may really be big trouble in the future.
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