Part1
Recently, relations between Russia and NATO have been tense because of the missile incident in Poland. According to the website of Radio France Internationale, NATO navies held large-scale joint exercises in the Atlantic and Mediterranean throughout November, and have brought together five aircraft carriers and many escort warships of the navies of the United States, Britain, France and Italy.
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said that "these actions provide an opportunity for allies to coordinate key combat capabilities across the Euro-Atlantic region, while demonstrating NATO's cohesion and interoperability." However, the statement of the United States does not seem to represent the current situation of NATO, and the BBC analysis said that the Polish missile incident in fact reflects the current division of NATO, and if the deadly conflict extends more to NATO territory, the reaction of all parties may not be as unified and united as some people expect.
Looking back at the entire Polish missile incident, it is not difficult to see the respective attitudes and positions of NATO countries. At two o'clock in the afternoon of November 15, local time, two explosions were heard in Khrubieszow County in eastern Poland, which is next to Ukraine, killing two citizens. Not only Poland, but also another Ukrainian neighbor, Moldova, was also hit by missiles, triggering local blackouts. Alarm bells suddenly rang in Europe, and all sides took the lead in breaking out into a war of words.
Ukraine quickly placed the blame on Russia, which Zelensky called "a Russian missile attack on collective security" and a "major escalation" of the conflict, and we must act.
A spokesman for the Polish Foreign Ministry said in a statement that a Russian-made missile had landed on Polish territory, while the spokesman also said that the Russian ambassador to Poland had been summoned to demand "immediate and detailed explanations."
The Russian Foreign Ministry called the "chaos" surrounding accusations of Russian involvement in the missile incident "part of a systematic anti-Russian campaign in the West."
Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"Poland first disagreed that the explosion was caused by NATO countries, and immediately studied the wreckage of the missile, which was a Soviet or Russian missile. By alluding to this, Russia did it. ”
Zhang Hong, researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"Poland has a preconceived idea, let's say that Russia did it, this has inertial thinking, we all know that the Russian-made S-300 system is an anti-aircraft missile developed during the Soviet Union, and it coincides with Russia's long-range strike on the entire territory of Ukraine." Of course, there are also historical contradictions between Russia and Poland, including the serious 'Russophobia' in Polish society, which also makes Poland show that this is a Russian missile at the time of this incident. ”
The missile attack on Ukraine's neighbor Poland triggered a high degree of tension in NATO, aroused global attention, and triggered tension in NATO's Eastern European countries
In accordance with article IV, article 5, of the North Atlantic Treaty. NATO members will hold urgent consultations when their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. An armed attack on a State party in Europe or North America is considered an attack on it as a whole, and NATO member countries have the right to assist in launching any form of military strike. This principle of collective defense is also at the heart of NATO's founding treaty.
Zhao Junjie, researcher at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"I think Poland immediately identified the missile attack as the work of Russia, and wanted to take this opportunity to expand the situation and take the opportunity to put forward its interests to NATO and the United States."
As soon as the Polish missile exploded, the Baltic states on the front line of Russia quickly called for the activation of NATO's collective defense clause and demanded more military support for Ukraine. Lithuanian President Nauseda tweeted that "every inch of NATO territory must be defended." Latvian Defense Minister Pabriks suggested that NATO provide air defense systems for Poland and parts of Ukraine, while Estonian Prime Minister Kallas said the West should give Ukraine more military, humanitarian and financial support.
Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"It's interesting that they are some of the countries that hate Russia the most in NATO. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, plus Poland, gritted their teeth against Russia, and must take various measures against Russia, and must 'yellow' Russia. It is a radical within NATO. ”
In July, the British Sunday Times reported that NATO members have been divided into three camps due to the lack of consensus on the conflict in Ukraine: "hawks", "doves" and "ostriches". Among them, the "hawks" believe that Russia should be given a powerful blow so that it does not pose a threat to any of its neighbors in the future; The "doves" are committed to a peaceful settlement between Moscow and Kiev; And the "ostrich" countries are more concerned about NATO's internal problems.
Poland and the three Baltic states are hawks.
Zhang Hong, researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"The Baltic countries of Eastern Europe, after they see Poland being attacked by missiles, NATO's reaction may make these countries doubt or uneasy, can NATO ensure the security of the contract at a real critical moment, which used to be just a provision written in the document, really implemented into action, can it immediately and effectively respond?" Now Poland has indeed proposed these NATO paragraphs 4 and 5, but the United States has responded with restraint, which shows that the United States does not want to trigger a new escalation of relations between Russia and NATO due to a missile miss. ”
Part2
The bombing occurred on the opening day of the G20 summit, when leaders from many countries gathered in Bali, Indonesia.
This photo shows that in a hotel in Bali, Biden is tiredly talking to Polish President Duda on the phone, next to the also very tired US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US National Security Adviser Sullivan.
Biden immediately said that he would send experts to investigate, proposed to provide "full support" to Poland, and asked for an "emergency meeting" of global leaders. and revealed that the NATO Council meeting on the 16th will discuss this incident.
According to the previous statements of the United States and NATO, once Russian missiles enter an inch of NATO territory, NATO will immediately respond quickly.
As soon as this happened, people were worried about whether NATO would be involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. But surprisingly, events soon took a turn.
Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"It is critical that all of a sudden US President Joe Biden jumped out and said that the missile was not launched from the territory of Russia, and there are also Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine. He understated that it was not launched from the territory of Russia, but he did not say who sent it. At the same time, another news came from the United States and NATO that this missile was not launched by the Russian army, but Ukraine did not hit the target of the missile in order to intercept the offensive missile launched by the Russian army, but entered Poland by mistake. ”
No one knows what US President Joe Biden and Polish President Duda talked about on the phone. But then Polish President Dudathorn's tone also began to change, saying that the incident was "most likely" caused by Ukrainian air defense systems and appeared to be an accident.
At this point, NATO members have basically unified their caliber: the missiles that hit Poland came from Ukrainian air defense systems.
On the 16th, NATO did not hold a meeting to discuss Article IV as expected. This series of actions is undoubtedly to cool down the Polish missile incident. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov unexpectedly praised the US and US presidents, calling them "restrained" and "more professional." This is a rare agreement between the United States and Russia on one issue since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Zhang Hong, researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"The United States and Russia reached a nuclear terror equilibrium in the 70s of the 20th century, and both sides had enough nuclear bombs to destroy the other, and even the entire planet. Therefore, there is consensus between the two sides on maintaining such a balance of nuclear terror, and there is also consensus on not starting a nuclear war or a world war. Even if something unexpected happens, it will choose to keep a low profile. Fighting without breaking is the most rational and prudent choice when there is a conflict of interests between nuclear powers, or even an accident. ”
Part3
Ukraine expresses strong dissatisfaction with the conclusions of NATO and Poland. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Danilov said on his social media account that Ukraine advocates a joint investigation into the missile falling into Poland, and Ukraine is ready to submit evidence in Ukraine's possession that shows that the incident was committed by Russia. Ukraine also expects information from its partners on "what information is used to conclude that this is a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile."
Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"The midterm elections are over, and the Republican Party has seized majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives. So in the next two years, will the Republican Party use its control of the House of Representatives to demand a reduction in US military aid to the Ukrainian government? At this juncture, will anyone say that they should quickly expand the situation, shoot shells into Poland, trigger the provisions of NATO Articles IV and V on collective defense, and make this war change from a war between Ukraine and Russia to a war between NATO and Russia. If someone moves this calculation, it will be very costly. ”
On November 17, the third day of the bombings in Poland, Ukraine's attitude suddenly changed. According to the US "Capitol Hill", Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky finally changed his tune and said that he was not entirely sure what happened to the missile explosion in Poland that killed two people. The BBC pointed out that the Polish missile incident in fact reflects the current division of NATO. From time to time, the "excessive language and demands" of the Ukrainian side began to exhaust the patience of some Western diplomats, exacerbating the "Ukrainian fatigue" among allies.
Just when US President Joe Biden urgently convened the leaders of the G7 and NATO to discuss the Polish missile incident, several "famous scene" photos were born. It is revealed that for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO countries have their own "small nine-nines" in their hearts.
US President Joe Biden posted such a photo on his Twitter account. In this photo, he himself is the absolute center, the absolute protagonist, embodying the status of the United States, surrounded by leaders of allied countries. In the photo, Trudeau, Sunak and others listen; Macron, Scholz, contemplative; European Commission President von der Leyen and European Council President Michel attended the lecture; In the corner, there was also the only leader who was blocked and brought an English interpreter to the meeting, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"Because the United States is the only one country, although it is on the other side of the Atlantic, the defense, military control and so on of the whole of Europe are controlled by the United States." So in a sense, when it comes to NATO, it is actually the United States, and what the United States does not agree with, nothing can be done, what the United States must do, NATO must do. ”
In another photo, French President Emmanuel Macron stands in the middle speaking as leaders of other countries surround him.
Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"I think it also reflects that France sees itself as the leader of the European Union. France's position and attitude towards the war against Ukraine is completely different from that of the United Kingdom, and it is also different from that of the United States. Britain is saying that you dare to use atomic bombs, I also have atomic bombs, Britain was in Scotland with a large transport vehicle pulled a few warheads, it itself claimed to carry nuclear warheads on the streets several times. Instead, Macron rushed to contact Putin several times before the war broke out on February 24. After the outbreak of the war, Macron was also the most frequent phone call with President Putin in all Western countries. ”
France is the only EU country with nuclear weapons. In his speech in early November, Macron said France wanted to push for strengthening the EU's own defense capacity building because of "another war on the continent." Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, France has tried its best to mediate and actively dialogue with Putin. According to RIA Novosti on November 15, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he had a brief conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Scholz during the G20 summit. According to a report by Agence France-Presse on the 14th, a French official revealed that Macron will call Putin after the G20 summit.
Zhao Junjie, researcher at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"'Doves', I think mainly are several traditional EU powers like Germany and France, because these countries have not yet begun the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, until the beginning of the outbreak, they are constantly mediating, whether Macron or Scholz. They really hope that Russia and Ukraine can turn the war into a jade, and do not want the city gate to catch fire and affect the surrounding EU countries. ”
Part4
It is worth noting that in the photo posted by Biden on Twitter, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not appear. In fact, as soon as the Polish missile exploded, Erdogan publicly spoke at the G20 summit, saying that Turkey believes that the missile explosion has nothing to do with Russia.
Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"One reason why the United States had to add Turkey to NATO was that Turkey's geographical position, especially its geopolitical position, was crucial. Another reason is that Turkey has been asking to join the EU for decades, but the EU is unwilling to absorb Turkey, so Turkey has suffered all kinds of torture in the long process of joining the EU, using this Ukrainian war, it finally found an occasion to vent, it is a member of NATO, but it has independent judgment, it is unwilling to act according to anyone's baton. ”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation on the phone, during which Erdogan expressed satisfaction with Putin's proposal to build a gas hub in Turkey on November 18, noting that the relevant teams will conduct the necessary technical, legal and commercial assessments to achieve common goals as soon as possible.
Zhao Junjie, researcher at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"Turkey itself is short of energy, so it wants to seize the time to buy a large amount of oil and gas from Russia. If the pipeline can be connected to Turkey, Turkey will then act as a middleman through Greece and Italy and then sell it to southern and Western Europe. Europe buys Turkish energy, not Russia's, so it will not be subject to sanctions. Putin is now also in desperation, feeling that this plan is feasible, so Turkey must not only pursue its own national interests, but also play a leading role in mediating between major powers. Erdogan is also a very sophisticated politician. ”
Although NATO countries and Russia unanimously believe that the missile that fell on Poland came from Ukraine. But NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said that although the missiles are Ukrainian, it is not Ukraine's fault and that Russia is ultimately responsible for waging an "illegal war" against Ukraine.
On November 18, the United States has been in intensive contact with European allies and Zelensky's entourage in recent days, calling on them to be more cautious when commenting on the missile incident in Poland, according to the US newspaper Politico, citing anonymous sources in the United States and Europe. The missile attack on Poland was a "really important test" for the United States, NATO allies and Ukraine.
Zhang Hong, researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"This also reflects the substantial difference between the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the relationship between Russia and NATO, and Poland for the United States, it means the responsibility and credibility of NATO and the responsibility and credibility of the United States." Ukraine may be a small episode, or even a tool for the game of great powers, but it is by no means the core interests of a great power, which can be abandoned, sacrificed, and used, but will never give all for it. Poland is mandatory, Ukraine is multiple-choice. ”
The Polish missile crisis is temporarily over, but the war continues.
Producer: He Jining
Choreographer: Wang Liu
Editor: Wang Jinjie