In the continuous escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a new round of changes has been staged in the Middle East region thousands of miles apart, Iran and Turkey at the same time against the pro-American Kurdish armed forces, Kurds threatened to abandon the camp where IS prisoners are held, forcing the United States to intervene, also to seek chips for themselves.
Turkish airstrikes on civilian infrastructure and oil fields in northern Syria
After Turkey's strike, Kurds threatened to release IS
In recent days, tensions on the Turkish-Syrian border have continued to escalate. In order to "liquidate" the Istanbul bombing, Turkey continued to attack Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq, killing nearly 200 people. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the airstrikes were "just the beginning." Unable to resist, the Kurds turned to the United States for help, even threatening that Turkey could be forced to abandon the camps where IS prisoners were to be launched if it continued with new ground operations.
The Syrian Democratic Army, a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia group, recently said that Turkey's ground operations will lead to the resurgence of IS extremist groups and a second civil war in Syria, and that they will also stop counterterrorism operations against IS. This would be very bad for the whole world.
Currently, the Syrian Democratic Army is responsible for prisons and internment camps where IS personnel and their families are held. Among them, the largest detention camp, Hall camp, houses more than 50,000 people, two-thirds of whom are children. 50,000 is not a small number, and once the Kurds "do what they say", it is likely to lead to a resurgence of terrorism, and then some of the previous international counter-terrorism cooperation may be done in vain. What about the United States?
General Abdi, the "Syrian Democratic Army", said they had suspended operations against IS because of Turkish airstrikes
Turkey and Kurds put the United States in a dilemma
Turkey's military action has put the United States in a dilemma. On the one hand, Turkey is a member of NATO and a long-time ally of the United States. The United States needs Turkey's support to get Finland and Sweden into NATO. One of the conditions set by Turkey is to take action against Kurdish forces.
On the other hand, the Syrian Kurdish armed forces are a good hand in fighting IS, or one of the few available military forces of the United States in the Middle East other than Israel. It should be said that when it is not a last resort, the United States must try to balance the two. Therefore, weighing the pros and cons, the United States may not strongly oppose Turkey's military action, but it will also light a "yellow light" in order to suspend the situation. At present, the United States has expressed dissatisfaction with Turkey's actions, but has not publicly criticized it.
Judging from Erdogan's current tough attitude, he does not plan to stop there. Turkish media revealed that Turkish armed forces may end artillery and air strikes in northern Iraq in December, followed by a possible large-scale ground operation in Syria. However, Turkey does not have the strength to completely eradicate Kurdish forces. Erdogan is running in the presidential election next year in exchange for some political leverage or for the United States to satisfy Turkey on issues such as arms sales.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Kurdish crackdown on IS is also asking for the United States
At the same time, the Kurdish armed forces in Syria also have something to ask of the United States. Based on huge economic interests and geopolitical needs, the United States has been supporting the Kurds for years. Kurds are one of the few ethnic groups in the Middle East that does not have strong anti-American sentiments. As the fourth largest nation in the Middle East, the Kurds do not have their own country, cannot gain independence on their own, and urgently need external support. The United States needs agents to meddle in Middle East affairs. The two sides hit it off.
But under Trump, the United States began to withdraw from the Middle East, and the Kurds became "outcasts" from pawns. The United States opposes the creation of a Kurdish statehood so as not to detonate a new "powder keg" in the Middle East. At present, 30 million Kurds are distributed in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran, and any change in the status quo of this ethnic group will cause great turmoil in the Middle East.
Panoramic view of Camp Hall in Syria
The support of the United States for the Kurds will inevitably provoke a response from the Kurds in Turkey and impact US-Turkish relations. The United States is also a rat thrower, "often picking up and often putting down" the Kurdish issue. The Kurds also understand that in order to eventually succeed in independent statehood, climbing the high branch of the United States is the only way out, and desperately fighting IS is an important strategy in exchange for US support. Kurdish forces threaten to release IS prisoners, not really want to release, if they really release, there will be no chips. The real intention of the Kurdish armed forces is to alert the United States and obtain American support.
By striking IS, the U.S. can create a strong core of anti-Syrian forces in northern Syria and shake Russia's only strategic pivot in the Middle East, the Assad regime. At the moment of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, this is of great significance to the United States and the entire Western camp. The forces in the Middle East are entangled with each other, like chaos, and it is difficult to have true tranquility and to distinguish right from wrong. The strategic and energy interests of the land are too tempting, and there is no dominant regional power or integration mechanism. The United States is unlikely to be really absent here, and it will not easily abandon the Kurdish armed forces.