□ Investment advisors continue to be optimistic about the trend of A-shares in the second quarter, and seventy percent of investment advisors are bullish on A-shares. In terms of market operation, most investment advisers believe that A-shares will show a structural market in the second quarter. From the perspective of investment hotspots, the most optimistic investment line of investment advisors in the second quarter is technology growth stocks
□ In the second quarter, equity assets such as stocks and funds were still the most worthwhile assets in the eyes of investment advisors. Among them, the total proportion of investment advisers who believe that equity assets should be allocated the most was 44%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous quarter. In addition, 21% of investment advisors recommended the allocation of precious metals such as gold, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous quarter
□ In the first quarter of this year, with the gradual recovery of the market, the investment income of high-net-worth clients increased significantly compared with last year, and 55% of high-net-worth clients made a profit. Among them, 7% of customers have a profit margin of more than 30%, and 48% of customers have a profit margin of 0% to 30%, an increase of 25 percentage points from the previous survey
□ Compared with the previous quarter, the willingness of high-net-worth customers to increase their positions has increased under the money-making effect. According to the survey, the proportion of high-net-worth clients who intend to actively increase their investment in the stock market in the near future increased to 34% from 31% in the previous quarter, while the proportion of those who plan to withdraw funds from the stock market is 7%, down 11 percentage points from the previous quarter. In addition, the willingness of high-net-worth clients to allocate to high-dividend sectors has increased significantly
Looking back at the A-share market in the first quarter, driven by various favorable policies, the market rebounded rapidly and recovered lost ground, and the investment income of high-net-worth customers increased significantly in the first quarter. Under the money-making effect, the willingness of high-net-worth clients to increase their positions increased in the second quarter.
The investment advisors interviewed this time are still full of confidence in the trend of A-shares in the second quarter, and seventy percent of the investment advisers said that they are bullish on the A-share market. Among them, 48% of investment advisors believe that the increase of the broader market is between 0% and 5%, which is basically the same as the previous quarter, and 22% of investment advisers believe that the increase of the broader market is more than 5%. From the perspective of market direction, the most optimistic investment line of investment advisors in the second quarter is still technology growth stocks.
Sixty percent of investment consultants are optimistic about the macro economy in the second quarter
Benefiting from the continuous efforts of the steady growth policy, investment advisors have more positive macroeconomic expectations for the second quarter of this year. Compared with the first quarter, 60% of investment advisors have a "neutral" and "optimistic" attitude towards the macro economy, an increase of about 20 percentage points. Most investment advisers believe that the continued efforts of the steady growth policy will be the main driving force for the strength of the stock market in the second quarter.
Optimistic about the economic growth rate in the second quarter
In this survey, 60% of investment advisors have a "neutral" and "optimistic" attitude towards the macroeconomic situation in the second quarter of 2024. Among them, 45% of investment advisers believe that the economy is in the stage of bottoming out.
Investment advisers are also more optimistic about economic growth than in the first quarter, believing that the economic growth rate will rise or remain the same as 70%, an increase of 10 percentage points from the previous quarter. Among them, 57% of investment advisers expect the economic growth rate to rise in the second quarter, and 13% believe that the economic growth rate will be the same as that in the first quarter.
Policy factors are still the primary factor influencing the stock market in the eyes of investment consultants. According to the survey, 20% of investment advisers believe that the continued efforts of the stable growth policy will be the main driver of the strength of the stock market in the second quarter, which is the same as the previous quarter, and another 18% believe that the main factor driving the strength of the stock market is the stable economic growth. In addition, the inflow of foreign capital, the entry of long-term funds such as pensions into the market, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate are also important factors driving the strength of the stock market in the eyes of investment consultants.
Entering mid-to-late April, A-shares ushered in the intensive disclosure window of annual reports and quarterly reports. In terms of risk factors, the proportion of investment advisors considering fundamentals increased slightly compared to the previous quarter. According to the data, 24% of the investment advisers believe that the economic downward pressure is still an important factor affecting the A-share market in the second quarter, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 19% of the investment advisers believe that the performance of listed companies is an important factor affecting the A-share market in the second quarter, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Liquidity expectations are skewed to be accommodative
The change in liquidity policy is not only related to the tightening of capital supply, but also to the capital supply of the stock market. According to the survey data, investment advisors still expect liquidity in the second quarter to "tend to be loose". Specifically, 62% of investment advisers expect the liquidity policy orientation to be neutral or loose in the second quarter, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 19% of investment advisers expect the liquidity orientation to be neutral and tight in the second quarter, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the previous quarter.
In terms of stock market liquidity in the second quarter, although the mainstream view of investment advisers is still the game of stock funds, the proportion of investment advisers who believe that over-the-counter funds will enter the market has increased significantly. Among them, 48% of the investment advisers believe that the market is still a game of stock funds, down 5 percentage points from the previous quarter, 30% believe that over-the-counter funds will further flow into the stock market, an increase of 10 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 10% believe that the market is facing many uncertainties and funds will flow out of the stock market, down 6 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Dividends and buybacks are the focus of attention
On March 15, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued four policy documents, systematically proposing a series of policy measures from various aspects such as issuance access, continuous supervision of listed companies, and supervision of intermediary agencies, and clearly implementing the requirements of "long teeth and thorns" and angular supervision, highlighting "strong foundation" and "strict supervision and strict management".
In this survey, 34% of the investment advisers believe that the policy signals released by the regulator will have a significant effect, and the regulatory policy guidance will affect the future market style to a certain extent, of which 34% of the investment advisers believe that it will be good for emerging sectors such as new quality productivity, and 32% of the investment advisers believe that it will be good for the state-owned central enterprise sector.
Among the relevant measures proposed in the four policy documents, strict control of IPO entry and strengthening the supervision of cash dividends are the measures that investment consultants are most concerned about. Among them, 29% of the investment advisers are most concerned about the measures related to the strict control of IPO entry gates, and 20% of the investment advisers are concerned about strengthening the supervision of cash dividends and regulating the reduction of holdings of senior executives and shareholders of listed companies. In addition, cracking down on financial fraud and improving the quality of listed companies have also received more attention.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) proposed in relevant policy documents that it will strengthen the supervision of cash dividends and enhance investor returns. In this regard, 74% of investment advisers believe that the increase in dividends and buybacks of listed companies will enhance investors' willingness to invest. Compared with dividends and buybacks, investors pay more attention to whether listed companies pay dividends, and 55% of investment consultants believe that investors will be more inclined to choose listed companies with dividends.
Seventy percent of investment advisors are bullish on the A-share market in the second quarter
Investment advisers continue to be optimistic about the trend of A-shares in the second quarter, and seventy percent of investment advisers are bullish on A-shares. From the perspective of sector selection, the most optimistic investment line of investment advisors in the second quarter is technology growth stocks, and the attention to cyclical stocks has also increased significantly. With the strength of the high-dividend sector, the willingness of high-net-worth clients to allocate to the sector has risen significantly.
Confidence in the rise of A-shares in the second quarter
Looking forward to the trend of the A-share market in the second quarter of 2024, 70% of investment advisors are bullish. Among them, 48% of investment advisors believe that the market will rise between 0% and 5%, which is basically the same as the previous quarter, 22% believe that the market will rise by more than 5%, and 23% believe that the market will fall.
In terms of the rhythm of the stock market, investment advisers generally believe that the market will not have a significant unilateral decline or unilateral upward trend. Among them, 40% of the investment advisers believe that the A-share market will fluctuate repeatedly in the second quarter, and some sectors will rise sharply, accounting for the highest proportion; 26% of the investment advisers believe that the market will fall first and then rise; 13% of the investment advisers believe that the market will rise and fall.
In terms of index volatility range forecasting in the second quarter, 60% of investment advisors expect that the upper limit of the Shanghai Composite Index will be around 3,200 points and above, of which 44% believe that the upper limit will be around 3,200 points, and 40% believe that the upper limit will be around 3,100 points.
According to the survey, young investment advisors are more optimistic about the trend and growth of A-shares in the second quarter. For the trend of A-shares in the second quarter of this year, among the investment advisors who have been in the industry for 1 to 5 years, the proportion of investment advisors who are bullish on the A-share market in the second quarter has reached 73%, exceeding the average level.
The technological growth style is the most popular
In the second quarter, investment advisors were still most optimistic about technology growth stocks, and their attention to cyclical stocks also increased significantly compared with the previous quarter. Specifically, technology growth stocks were favored by 48% of investment advisors, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous quarter, cyclical sectors such as coal, chemicals, and nonferrous metals were favored by 12% of investment advisors, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous quarter, and consumer and pharmaceutical stocks were favored by 13% of investment advisors, down 12 percentage points from the previous quarter.
The AI sector has gone through multiple rounds of hype since last year. Most investment advisors still believe that there are still structural opportunities in the sector looking ahead to the second quarter. Among them, 27% of the investment advisors judged that the technology sector will still be in the adjustment stage, down 5 percentage points from the first quarter, 20% of the investment advisors believe that the overall adjustment of the technology sector is in place, and the valuation is relatively reasonable, and 22% of the investment advisors believe that some stocks in the technology sector have attractive valuations, an increase of 2 percentage points from the first quarter.
In the artificial intelligence sector, the most optimistic subdivisions of investment advisors are computing power and algorithms, accounting for 43%, the concept of humanoid robots is favored by 23% of investment advisors, the media and game sectors are favored by 11% of investment advisors, and the chip sector is favored by 10% of investment advisors.
The willingness to allocate to high-dividend sectors has increased
Since 2023, state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have lowered the listed interest rates on deposits. Against the backdrop of the continuous decline in deposit rates, some investors have turned their focus to the equity market, among which high-dividend assets with "high dividends, low volatility and low valuation" are becoming a new hot spot for funds.
In the first quarter of this year, a number of high-dividend stocks showed strong trends, and the willingness of high-net-worth customers to allocate high-dividend sectors also increased significantly. Among them, 69% of investment advisors said that their clients plan to allocate an appropriate amount of high-dividend stocks in the coming quarter, and 21% of investment advisors said that their clients plan to allocate a large number of high-dividend stocks.
From a valuation perspective, 29% of advisors believe that the current valuation of the high-dividend sector is reasonable, 25% believe that the high-dividend sector will be in a correction phase, and 23% believe that some stocks in the high-dividend sector are attractively valued.
Among the high-dividend sectors, investment advisors are most optimistic about utilities, petroleum and petrochemicals. Specifically, 30% of investment advisors are optimistic about the utilities sector, 24% are optimistic about the petroleum and petrochemical sector, 15% are optimistic about the financial sector represented by banks, and 14% are optimistic about the coal sector.
Equity assets have the most allocation value
According to the survey, in terms of asset allocation, equity assets such as stocks and funds are still the most worthwhile assets in the eyes of investment advisors in the second quarter. Among them, the total proportion of investment advisers who believe that equity assets should be allocated reached 44%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous quarter. In addition, 21% of investment advisors recommended the allocation of precious metals such as gold, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Enhance equity and gold allocation
Compared with the first quarter, the proportion of investment advisers who take equity assets such as stocks and partial equity funds as the main allocation direction in the second quarter has increased. 44% of the investment advisers suggested that equity assets such as stocks and funds should be the main allocation direction in the second quarter, an increase of 4 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, 21% of the investment advisers suggested the allocation of precious metals such as gold, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 10% of the investment advisers believed that they should hold currency, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous quarter.
In the first quarter of this year, the international gold price rose sharply. Especially in April, the COMEX gold price once exceeded $2,400 per ounce. With the rise in gold prices, the performance of related listed companies has also risen. There has been a marked increase in investment interest in gold from high-net-worth clients.
Specifically, 66% of advisors said their clients made small purchases of gold-related assets in the first quarter, and 16% said that their clients bought large amounts of gold-related assets in the first quarter. Among the high-net-worth customers who allocate gold assets, the purchase of gold ETFs is the mainstream. Among them, 51% of high-net-worth clients bought gold ETFs, 22% bought physical gold, 17% bought precious metals stocks, and 5% bought gold futures.
The attractiveness of ETF funds has increased
The results of this survey show that the attractiveness of public fund products has improved, and the proportion of investment advisers who believe that the attractiveness of public fund products in the second quarter is lower than that of stocks, a decrease of 8 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Since the beginning of the year, benefiting from relevant favorable policies and market promotion, ETF product issuance has continued to be active. Thirty-four percent of the investment advisers said that the large-scale issuance of broad-based ETFs is conducive to enhancing liquidity in the capital market, and 30% of the investment advisers believe that it is conducive to attracting long-term funds. Among the many ETF products, index and industry ETFs are the most popular. CSI index ETFs and industry ETFs are favored by 32% of investment advisors, while 11% are optimistic about commodity ETFs.
According to the changes in the scale of fund investment of high-net-worth customers in the first quarter, 65% of high-net-worth customers redeemed funds, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the last survey. Among the clients who redeemed the fund, the investment advisor said that 46% of the clients redeemed the equity-biased fund. Among the clients who subscribed to the fund, the investment adviser said that 40% of the clients chose to subscribe to the ETF fund.
Investment advisors focus on performance factors
In terms of operational strategies, flexible grasp of thematic investment ideas is most highly regarded by investment consultants. In addition, as the market entered the intensive disclosure period of listed companies' performance in the second quarter, investment advisers paid more attention to performance factors in stock selection ideas, and the proportion of investment advisers who chose value investment ideas increased significantly compared with the previous quarter.
According to the data, 33% of investment advisers believe that they should flexibly grasp the thematic investment ideas in the second quarter, which accounts for the highest proportion, 32% of investment advisers believe that value investment should be selected in the second quarter and focus on high-quality companies, an increase of 10 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 9% of investment advisers believe that risk aversion is the priority, maintaining low positions and operating less, down 4 percentage points from the previous quarter.
More than half of high-net-worth clients made a profit in the first quarter
In the first quarter of this year, with the gradual recovery of the market, the investment income of high-net-worth customers increased significantly, with 55% of high-net-worth customers achieving profits, and about three-thirds of high-net-worth customers plan to increase their investment in the stock market in the near future.
Nearly half of high-net-worth clients increased their positions in the first quarter
According to the survey results, 55% of high-net-worth clients made a profit in the first quarter of this year. Among them, 7% of high-net-worth clients made a profit of more than 30%, and 48% of clients made a profit margin of 0% to 30%, an increase of 25 percentage points from the last survey.
Looking back at the rebalancing operations of customers in the first quarter of this year, 46% of high-net-worth customers chose to increase their positions. Specifically, 41% of clients chose to increase their positions slightly, 5% chose to increase their positions significantly, and 34% chose to keep their original positions.
The technology sector rebounded in the first quarter of this year. According to the survey, 49% of high-net-worth customers reduced their positions in the sector in the first quarter, of which 35% of high-net-worth customers reduced their positions significantly, and 14% of them reduced their positions slightly. In addition, 30% of clients chose to add positions to the technology sector.
Under the money-making effect, the willingness of high-net-worth customers to increase their positions has increased. According to the survey, the proportion of high-net-worth clients who intend to voluntarily increase their investment in the stock market increased to 34% from 31% in the previous quarter, while the proportion of customers who intend to withdraw funds from the stock market is 7%, down 11 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Among those customers who want to increase their access to the market, cash deposits are the main source of funds, accounting for 44%, followed by redemption of bank wealth management, money market funds, and bond funds, accounting for 36%. Among the customers who withdrew funds from the stock market, the funds were mainly directed to bank wealth management products and fixed deposits with a maturity of years or more, accounting for 35%.
Investment in Hong Kong stocks tends to be active
Investment advisors have increased their expectations for the value of their investments in Hong Kong stocks in the second quarter. According to the survey, 70% of investment advisers believe that Hong Kong stocks are attractive for investment, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the proportion of investment advisers who believe that the investment value of Hong Kong stocks is average decreased to 13% from 16% in the previous quarter. From the perspective of income from investing in Hong Kong stocks, 43% of high-net-worth clients made a profit in the first quarter of this year. Among them, 6% of customers have a profit margin of more than 30%, and 37% of customers have a profit margin of 0% to 30%.
High-net-worth clients were also more active in investing in Hong Kong stocks than in the previous quarter. According to the survey, 79% of high-net-worth clients invested in Hong Kong stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect in the first quarter, an increase of 16 percentage points compared with the previous survey. Among them, 20% of customers increased their investment in Hong Kong stocks, an increase of 5 percentage points over the previous quarter, and 20% of customers basically maintained their original positions, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the previous quarter.
From the perspective of Hong Kong stock targets favored by high-net-worth customers, 29% of high-net-worth customers chose artificial intelligence and other technology leaders listed in Hong Kong, accounting for the highest proportion, 27% of high-net-worth customers chose blue-chip stocks with high dividend yields represented by banks, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 23% of high-net-worth customers chose targets that Tencent and other A-shares do not have.
Conclusion
The survey results show that investment advisers are optimistic about the macro economy in the second quarter of this year, and seventy percent of investment advisers believe that the economic growth rate will rise or flat, an increase of 10 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. At the mesoscopic level, seventy percent of investment advisors believe that A-shares are expected to fluctuate upward. At the micro level, the most optimistic investment theme of investment advisors in the second quarter was technology growth stocks, and the focus on cyclical stocks also increased significantly compared with the previous quarter. As the attractiveness of high-dividend sectors has increased, the willingness of high-net-worth clients to allocate to high-dividend sectors has increased significantly.