The four teams in Group A of the World Cup are the Netherlands, a three-time World Cup runner-up, Senegal, the winner of the new African Cup, Qatar and Ecuador, a South American powerhouse. Let's analyze which two teams will advance to the round of 16 and which two teams will be out of the group.
Netherlands: The Netherlands' opening World Cup game is against Senegal, which are currently unbeaten in 15 games in all competitions (11 wins, four draws), with their last defeat against the Czech Republic in the round of 16 of Euro 2021. The Netherlands have never been out of the group stage in 10 World Cup appearances before, and this time it is also the first time in eight years that the team missed the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
The Netherlands have been runners-up in the World Cup three times, and the team has played in the final the most times (3 times) among the teams that have not won the World Cup. However, the team's group stage matches have generally been very smooth, with the last four World Cup appearances being unbeaten in three group stage games (1998, 2006, 2010 and 2014), and the Netherlands' last World Cup group stage loss was in 1994 against Belgium in Orlando, USA, and although that game was lost, the team qualified from the top of the group.
The Netherlands are currently ranked No. 8 in the world and have 23 points from 10 matches in the World Cup European qualifiers, with the only one loss coming away to Turkey. The probability of qualifying the Dutch group through big data is 83.02%, and the probability of winning the first place of the group is 59.27%.
Senegal: Senegal, the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations champions, won the first major tournament in their history by beating Egypt on penalties in a 0-0 AFC final earlier this year. That edition of the Africa Cup of Nations won 1 and drew 2 in the group stage, scoring 1 goal in 3 group games, the only goal coming Mane in the first game of the African Cup against Zimbabwe (Mane's penalty in the 87th minute). Only two goals conceded in 660 minutes in that AFP.
Senegal has a probability of qualifying from the group of 48.97%, second only to the Netherlands, slightly higher than Ecuador in the same group at 42.13%, and Qatar in the same group has the lowest probability of qualifying (25.89%).
Qatar: Qatar, as the host of this World Cup, the team urgently needs to avoid the second host who was eliminated in the first round of the World Cup, after South Africa in 2010, given that the opponents in the same group are significantly stronger than their own team. Qatar is the reigning Asian Cup champion, beating Japan 3-1 in the 2019 Asian Cup final. He scored 19 goals and conceded only one in the entire Asian Cup. But that cup is close to four years before the world of this World Cup, the opening match of this World Cup is Qatar vs South American powerhouse Ecuador, Ecuador is perhaps the easiest opponent for Qatar in the same group.
Ecuador: Ecuador are in good form, losing only one of their last 15 matches, but nine of them have been draws. The last six games have combined to produce two goals, all scored by Ecuador, so the offensive strength should not be the favorite team to qualify from the group.
Ecuador performed very well in the South American World Qualifiers, scoring 27 goals, also setting the team's record for the most goals scored in a single World Qualifier. But when it comes to the World Cup, it doesn't seem to have much of an advantage.
The two teams that qualify from this group are predicted to be the Netherlands and Ecuador. Twenty of the previous 21 World Cup hosts have made it through the first round, with the exception of South Africa in 2010. Judging by the strength of the group and the experience of the competition, Qatar will soon become the second host not to pass the first round. The match between Qatar and Ecuador should be won by the away team, while the other match between the Netherlands and Senegal should also be won by the Netherlands. The Netherlands should win all three of their group games, with the only possible point loss against Ecuador. Common sense inferred that the Netherlands qualified for the top spot with all 3 wins in the group stage, while Ecuador won 2 or won 1 win, drew 1 and lost 1, and qualified second in the group. Hosts Qatar finished bottom of the group, while Senegal finished third in the group with 1 win and 2 defeats or 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat (goal difference).
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