【Editor's Note】This article is authorized by the author Makinono, "Qin An Strategy" was published exclusively on today's headline platform, reprinted from the public account "Makinono", there are many wonderful contents, welcome to pay attention.
Watching the news of the domestic media rushing to the Queen of England, far covering the news of Chairman Mao's death for 46 years, some helplessness, can only smile and shake their heads, turn their heads, they now need to study another extremely important thing, which is related to the development opportunities of the mainland in the next five years.
The title was "Russia Made a Very Important Decision", but after careful consideration, perhaps this means that it does not fully represent the will of the Russian state, and at least a considerable number of people will feel puzzled, unwilling or even dissatisfied.
So, this is more of an important strategic decision made by Putin and his ruling team.
In the Russo-Ukrainian War album (attached), I have specifically analyzed Putin's personality, style, team composition, and the evolution of policies in the past decade, and in all this data and analysis, "looking east" was originally just a vague, unrealistic, and unsettled concept.
What is looking east? How is it laid out? How long does it take? What is its connection and difference from the traditional Russian strategy? At the moment, what we see is not clear, but one thing is certain, that this trend is sudden, rapid, and betting.
How did this concept come about?
The plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum was held on September 7, and Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the plenary session. Among the direct participants in the plenary were the Prime Minister of Myanmar, the Chairman of the Myanmar National Management Committee and the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Forces, Senior General Min Aung Nhat, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Mongolia and Chairman of the People's Party, Oyun Erden. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Thien, Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabiri Jacob, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the participants via video.
Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out that the Far East and the Arctic are the regions to which Russia's future depends, because they lead to those regions of the world that are actively developing. He cautioned that Asian countries are growing faster than Western countries, and that this trend will continue in the future.
"The vast majority of countries in the Asia-Pacific region do not accept the destructive logic of sanctions. At the center of business relations are the principles of mutual benefit, cooperation and the accumulation of economic potential for the benefit of mainland citizens. The great competitive advantage of the Asia-Pacific region lies in this guarantee of its rapid and long-term development. The Asia-Pacific region has steadily outpaced the world over a long period of time," Putin said.
What caught my attention was that Tolo raya, vice-chairman of the Council of the Russian BRICS Research Council, pointed out at the end of the plenary that Russia has begun to seriously "turn to the East":
"Previously, I felt that many people's agendas for 'turning to the East' were formal. Now, for the first time, I have indeed seen firsthand how the machine turns its nose to the east. Today we meet in this hall representatives of the Russian elite: the business elite, the political elite. They gathered to listen and think carefully about how to develop relations with Myanmar, Vietnam, Mongolia, and with countries that were previously considered remote and seemed to have a certain exotic atmosphere. ”
Sensitive people will associate many, many problems from one thing, so as to judge and reflect the original inference.
For example, I wrote in a previous article that people around Putin once wrote an article analyzing his personality, saying that he did not attach great importance to economic development, science and technology, which require long-term deep cultivation, but had a strong interest and fascination in war, politics, the great power game, history, and culture.
When we compare China's strategy, economic planning, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the laying out of relations with Russia, Southeast Asia, and the United States, we are all based on at least 5-10 years, and we think very clearly and step on a solid footing.
To grasp the current world situation, first of all, there are "major changes unprecedented in a hundred years," and then the essence of world relations is "Sino-US relations," and with Russia is "back-to-back," and Asia is an important foundation.
But until August, putin's speeches reflected the "look east" in all of his speeches, what does this mean?
- Looking east was forced.
- Looking east is also the last card.
We all remember putin coming before the Winter Olympics, I analyzed, he did not tell us about the plan, we do not know two hundred percent, although the United States told us several times, but did not believe.
Putin shows us his back, it is certain that no matter what kind of action is taken, China will not betray, this is a strategic judgment, of course, it is also right.
We are gentlemen and a trustworthy nation. These large oil and gas orders are more expensive than those sold by Russia to India, but we also use this way, including the purchase of crude oil, to give Russian economic support.
Peskov said Russia was under "unprecedented pressure from the West," and I believe that's the truth.
Putin's dream is to integrate into the West, into Europe, the same Caucasians, similar religious beliefs, even if they are forced into desperate situations again and again, they have not completely given up hope, even after the battlefield suffers losses, and even the West intends to assassinate Putin, but "Russia still has illusions."
Russia's view of the East has always been a "spare tire".
But the whole situation is seeing more and more that if this trend continues, Russia will need to pay a greater price to get what it wants.
The United States reported that Russia is considering purchasing rockets and artillery shells from the DPRK, and it is difficult to distinguish whether it is true or not, but the recent exchanges between Russia and the DPRK are very clear.
So Putin's decision to "look east" may be the first time in recent history that the Russian elite has really begun to think about how to move closer to the East.
This is an extremely important decision!
This means that the situation in Asia as a whole will become more complex.
Because crisis and opportunity coexist, we cannot say that one thing is absolutely good or bad, that is not objective, it is always a complex mixture that requires our careful analysis and to think in terms of the Russian way of doing things.
Let's start with the drawbacks:
1. Changes in the security landscape in Asia.
East Asia is home to three nuclear-armed states, including Japan (which is ready to do so), which is extremely detrimental to China's development.
Today, we see north Korea moving, which has legislatively identified itself as a nuclear-armed state. At the same time, Putin sent congratulatory messages to Kim Jong-un, and relations are heating up.
Yonhap News Agency quoted KCNA as saying that the 14th Supreme People's Assembly of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea passed a decree called "Nuclear Weapons Policy" at its September 7 meeting. The document includes 11 items, including provisions on the use of nuclear weapons, the composition of nuclear forces, command and control of nuclear weapons, ensuring the implementation of decisions on the use of nuclear weapons, principles and conditions for their use, mobilization, etc.
North Korea's nuclear technology, some of which comes from the former Soviet Union, if Russia looks east, Russia-North Korea relations will be closer, Kim Jong-un will also benefit more from the two countries, unless China and Russia can reach an agreement, otherwise it may be separated.
2. Russia will significantly increase its military presence in the Far East.
This is mainly aimed at Japan, but it is also an important way to protect economic interests, and even has the intention of deterring Alaska and the Arctic.
We also need to increase deployments on a reciprocal basis, not a question of trust, which is basic military deployment.
3. In time, we may also face the same problems in energy as in Europe.
4. Russia may propose a lot of binding conditions, and those who want closer cooperation want to invite us to the other side of the Iron Curtain.
5. If the leader is not Putin, the above plan may be stranded.
And then there are the favorable ones:
- Corresponding to the first article above, it is conducive to deterring Japan and preventing Japan from sneaking up on us.
2. My energy card neck situation has been fundamentally alleviated in the short term.
Whether the pipelines come from Mongolia or Central Asia, as long as they are there, the United States will not dare to jam our energy and food routes in Malacca, because the cards are useless.
3. The above two points are extremely conducive to my settlement of the Taiwan issue within three years.
4. It is conducive to our industrial complementarity with Russia, we import a large amount of energy, grain, minerals, timber, export chips, cement for infrastructure, steel, high-tech equipment (unmanned aerial vehicles, ships), optical fiber communications 5G, computers, high-speed rail, civilian trucks, various equipment, oil and gas pipelines.
If Russia needs to increase infrastructure in the Far East, it will provide extremely broad development opportunities for our northern region, especially the northeast.
5. Help strengthen my influence in Asia, such as Myanmar, Southeast Asia, russia can use our commercial routes to achieve win-win development, and at the same time, in exchange, Russia must take out its share of Central Asian control. And we can use Russia's influence to further increase our presence in the Middle East.
The United States will be squeezed into the Japanese region in Asia.
The above is a simple analysis, there will be more topics in the future, it will be very complicated, we need to consider a series of pros and cons in advance.
There is another thing, you can think about why, obviously want to meet, until now also not announced, to Russia's "enthusiasm" in the past few days have not replied.
Caution is right, a big country, it is not a child's family, today with you are not allowed to say bad, tomorrow turn the face does not recognize anything, there should be all kinds of voices.
And if you want to better grasp the initiative in China and Russia back-to-back, I would like to make two points of thought:
1. The pipeline is repaired as soon as possible.
For reasons that people don't know very well, we talked for many years, gave way to many steps, and even some humiliation in order to win the pipeline, but it didn't work.
Nowadays, it is rare for Russia to take the initiative to bow its head, the balance is tilted, we need to seize Russia's current uncomfortable stage, the pipeline is a trillion, a repair is a kind of bondage, it is difficult to regret.
If Russia wins on the battlefield and overwhelms Europe, all this may not go too fast.
2. Science and technology catch up as soon as possible.
Russia can not develop high-tech at all, lagging too far behind, and this is not Putin's style of doing things, so as long as we firmly grasp the bull nose of science and technology and overcome the high-tech difficulties represented by chips as soon as possible, not only Russia is China, but the whole world will be Chinese in the future.
Understand the importance of yesterday's national conquest meeting.
Nowadays, it is not easy to correctly evaluate what kind of situation we are in, but the game between major powers, China, the United States, Russia and India, we can compare our own current situation through the actions of others.
Putin's sharp turn back is not only a wise move, but also a manifestation of the predicament, if Russia can come up with this humility and really cooperate with China in a down-to-earth manner, China and Russia can achieve their own development.
Words and words, the face is earned by themselves, the previous big brother, looking down on our big brother, in the end still have to choose to extend their hands under the situation and strength, this is the greatest pride, but also the greatest affirmation of China, walking in this world, there is strength to have confidence, blind blowing is meaningless.
Do your own thing well, guard against impatience, calm and calm, when the opportunity comes, jump to catch, although the situation is difficult, but we do always work in the right direction, in this fluctuating world, it is already extremely difficult.
Not only seeking truth from facts and seeing the problems in development, but also clearly distinguishing the main and secondary directions and trends, I think that every Chinese has reason to be proud and moved, and there are reasons to be full of confidence to overcome the current obstacles one by one and move from victory to victory.