The U.S. government finally approved the Chip and Science Act of 2022 (the "Chip Act"). The bill decided to inject a total of $280 billion over the next five years to boost the U.S. chip industry. According to reports, the main elements of the bill include: providing about $52.7 billion in financial support to the semiconductor industry, providing companies with $24 billion worth of investment tax credits, and encouraging companies to develop and manufacture chips in the United States; Provide about $200 billion in scientific research funding in the coming years, with a focus on cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and quantum computing.
It is reasonable to say that it is not too much for a country to use industrial policy to develop cutting-edge science and technology. But under the bill, if a semiconductor manufacturer builds or expands an advanced semiconductor manufacturer in China or other potentially unfriendly country and builds a factory in the United States, the company will not receive the subsidies promised by the Chip Act. If combined with the so-called "chip quad alliance" (the United States, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan) that the United States is vigorously promoting and leading at the moment, the whole world understands that the United States is trying to establish "chip hegemony completely under its own absolute control", and the most core opponent is China.
Can the United States really do this? Is it that with subsidies and preferential taxes, the world's chip and other technology industries will flock to the United States? To be honest, the United States is really a little old, and I am afraid that the brain is also seriously watery.
First, to say that subsidies and tax incentives for the chip industry, only the United States can do it? Will other countries do it? Second, if the so-called "unfriendly countries" all reject or minimize the import of chips in the United States, and then go all out to develop their own chip technology, then where to find enough markets for chips developed at a very high cost in the United States to cover investment costs? Third, forcing science and technology to diverge, what a serious impact this will have on future high-tech progress.
In fact, an important feature of contemporary scientific and technological development is that even a very small subdivision may require trillions of investments, and the cost is so high that it is rare in history. Therefore, the cheapest and most reasonable way to develop must be a global combination. First of all, countries with different advantages, based on their own advantages, carry out research and development in a part of the subdivision field, and then combine all the most advantages to constitute the lowest development cost; Secondly, to provide a global unified market for products, which can minimize the cost of use with huge production capacity and market; Third, huge market sales and profits can cover huge investment costs.
However, the United States goes against the tide and resists the law, "making a big pot to fry a small dish", and can this small dish cover the cost of creating a big pot? I am afraid that chip companies all over the world must consider this issue. Perhaps because of this, TSMC, which has been coerced by the US government to build a factory in the United States many times, has been dodging and hiding, and has concerns. Recently, it was South Korea's turn to reply (in fact, coercion) to the Question of Whether to Join the "Chip Quad Alliance" for a limited time by the United States. How does South Korea respond? A senior South Korean government official said: "This week (August 8 to August 13), the Rokk Foreign Ministry will convey to the U.S. State Department through formal diplomatic channels the matters related to the preliminary meeting of the 'Chip Quad Alliance' at the beginning of next month (early September)," but the RoK government decided to propose two basic principles to the United States: First, the participating countries should respect the one-China principle; Second, there is no mention of export restrictions on China.
It can be seen that Koreans understand very well that it is not so much that Korean chips are inseparable from the Chinese market, but rather that the entire chip industry is inseparable from China, and it is impossible to give up such a large market as China. Therefore, those countries and enterprises that rely on high input, high output, and high technology must respect the one-China stance, because this is the basis for dealing with China.
Facts tell us that the us government's approach has the opposite effect on China. As soon as China's industrial policy is released, the stocks of related industries will rise sharply. However, the official signing of the "Chip Act" has brought about a plunge in related stocks in the United States. After the news was announced, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by more than 5%, while many chip-related technology stocks such as TSMC, Nvidia, Broadcom, Qualcomm, AMD, Intel, micron technology, etc., all fell deeply, with the largest falling nearly 6%.
The decline in the stock prices of global chips and "chip law" related companies shows that the market and companies understand that small markets and small circles cannot afford a developing semiconductor industry, and trying to exclude the world's largest market, the Chinese market, from the global chip industry chain is a disaster for the semiconductor industry. So, the Chip Act is evil, at least not a good one. Its implementation will bring immeasurable and serious damage to the global chip industry.