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A historic breakthrough in Turkish-Israeli relations, Erdogan in the next big game?

author:Straight news

On the afternoon of August 17, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Lapid and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that they agreed to fully restore diplomatic relations between the two countries, and would exchange ambassadors and consul general and other diplomats. It is the latest move since the months of reconciliation between the two countries and a historic step in relations after more than a decade of tension.

A historic breakthrough in Turkish-Israeli relations, Erdogan in the next big game?

According to the Associated Press, the Israeli prime minister's office issued a statement on Wednesday saying the move came after Israeli Prime Minister Rapid visited Ankara in June and held talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The statement also quoted Rapide as saying that the full restoration of relations with Turkey is "an important asset for maintaining the stability of the regional situation and is also very important economic news for Israeli citizens."

"The escalation of relations with Turkey will contribute to deepening relations between the two peoples, expanding economic, trade and cultural relations, and strengthening regional stability," Rapid said. ”

"As Turkey, we have also decided to send an ambassador to Israel to Tel Aviv," Turkish Foreign Minister Çavushoglu said in the capital Ankara on Wednesday that turkey's formal process for re-appointing the ambassador would begin in the coming days, a move he called "a positive step."

A historic breakthrough in Turkish-Israeli relations, Erdogan in the next big game?

Turkish Foreign Minister Cavushoglu said he would appoint an ambassador to Israel as soon as possible Image: The Guardian

Israel and Turkey were once close allies, but relations fell to a freezing point after Israeli commandos attacked a Turkish vessel bound for Gaza carrying humanitarian supplies in 2010, killing 10 Turkish citizens.

In 2016, the two countries reached a brief reconciliation, but with the United States in 2018 to move the embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to the highly controversial "holy city" of Jerusalem, which means that after the United States officially recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, protests broke out in many Palestinian cities, Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador to Turkey to show protest, and then recalled the Turkish ambassador to Israel, the relationship between the two countries fell into a low point again, Turkey even recalled the ambassador to Israel, and since then the two countries have not exchanged ambassadors.

It was not until June 2021, when former Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who had been in power for 12 years, stepped down that Israeli-Turkish relations tended to ease. Israeli Presidents Herzog and Erdogan met in Ankara in March and in May the Turkish foreign minister visited Jerusalem, turkey's first high-level visit to Israel in 15 years, and bilateral relations showed rapid recovery momentum.

A historic breakthrough in Turkish-Israeli relations, Erdogan in the next big game?

Israeli President Herzog (left) meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on March 9 Image: The New York Times

What is Ankara's goal?

In the past, the relationship between the two countries came to a point of collapse during Erdogan's administration. Today, Erdogan is still on the stage, but the Israeli and Turkish sides shook hands and made peace, and the previous suspicions were released.

Times have changed, and the situation in the Middle East has also changed significantly.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out earlier this year was a direct trigger for the warming of Turkish-Turkish relations. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Erdogan has not supported NATO or Russia "one-sidedly", but has mediated as a centrist. For example, the grain export agreement signed by Russia and Ukraine before, which has a credit to Erdogan, and Turkey has also won the diplomatic achievements of the world's attention, which can be described as a rare "scenery".

Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Erdogan has been promoting diplomatic relations with the Gulf states, Egypt, Israel and other Middle Eastern countries. That's because Turkey is heavily dependent on Russia for energy, and 45 percent of the country's natural gas is imported from Russia, so it has been exploring ways to diversify its energy supply, and improving diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern countries, including Israel, will help Turkey reduce its dependence on Russia.

A Report in the Times of Israel in May said that energy could be a key area for in-depth cooperation between Israel and Turkey, saying Turkey is closely following the energy it is developing and "daydreaming" to build gas pipelines with Israel.

A historic breakthrough in Turkish-Israeli relations, Erdogan in the next big game?

The article was titled "Turkey Dreams of Building 'Unrealistic' Gas Pipelines with Israel"

The analysis believes that if Israeli natural gas is exported to Europe through Turkey, it will help European countries reduce their energy dependence on Russia and enhance Turkey's influence in Europe. In a meeting with Israeli President Herzog in March, Erdogan publicly stated that Turkey was ready to "cooperate with Israel on energy and energy security projects."

Tehran may become an indirect inducement

In addition to the impact of energy factors, the threat posed by Iran's rise to Israel and the less optimistic Turkish-Iranian relations also provide sufficient reasons for Israel to return to the old good.

As hopes of a resumption of the JCPOA become increasingly slim, tensions between Iran and Israel do not appear to have any tendency to ease. Five Iranians in Turkey were arrested for attempting to assassinate former Israeli diplomats, which further deteriorated relations between Iran and Israel.

Meanwhile, while no highly offensive public declarations have been made, the rivalry between Turkey and Iran has continued unabated, most notably blatant disagreement between the two sides over Syria and Iraq, Al Jazeera reported.

A historic breakthrough in Turkish-Israeli relations, Erdogan in the next big game?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) and Iranian President Lehi (left) Source: Al Jazeera

Turkey has wavened its campaign against the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern Syria, with the main goal of preventing attacks on its forces and the syrian opposition's area, and announced plans to safely return one million Syrians to the soon-to-be-established "safe zone."

Considering that the relevant actions have the potential to expand Turkey's control over Syria, the Iranian side has publicly rejected a "military solution", called for a political process, and emphasized the concept of Syrian sovereignty and independence, which means indirectly opposing Turkey's related actions.

At last month's summit in Tehran, neither Iran nor Russia formally supported the action, and Turkey had no intention of giving up. Iran's supreme leader, Khamenei, has publicly stated that Turkey's actions "will harm Syria, Turkey and the region," warning Turkey.

"We will continue to defend Palestinian rights"

After announcing the full resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavushoglu stressed that despite the normalization process with Israel, "we will continue to defend the rights of Palestine, Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip."

However, an important signal is that Turkey's ambassador to Israel is not the official capital "Jerusalem" that Israel calls, but the customary choice of Tel Aviv. This is not only a gesture of overture to the Palestinians, but also a warning to Israel. This is enough to show that although the Turkish side has returned to the old goodwill with Israel, it still regards the peaceful settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli issue as the "political red line" of bilateral relations.

A historic breakthrough in Turkish-Israeli relations, Erdogan in the next big game?

On May 13, 2021, a Palestinian boy inspects the damage caused by Israeli airstrikes. Source: Xinhua News Agency

This statement by the Turkish side is not the first time. During a visit to the West Bank city of Ramallah in May and meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Chavusoglu promised that "Turkey will continue to support its Palestinian brothers and sisters in their struggle for an independent, sovereign Palestinian state," according to the Turkish Radio and Television Corporation. He also stressed that "even if Turkey's relations with Israel are thawed, Turkey's support for Palestine will not diminish."

However, in the context of changes in the international geopolitical landscape, the Palestinian-Israeli issue has gradually faded from the center of the Middle East political arena and is no longer the most important diplomatic consideration for Middle Eastern countries. From Israel's active pursuit of improving relations with regional powers in recent years and its successful normalization of relations with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Saudi Arabia through the so-called "Abraham Accords", to the full restoration of diplomatic relations with Turkey at this time, there is no doubt that it is gradually testing the bottom line of these regional powers on the Palestinian-Israeli issue.

It turns out that the position of the middle Eastern powers on Palestine's support has not changed, but this position is not everything, and it can still appropriately give way to national interests. After being marginalized, the future situation of Palestine is probably not optimistic.

The author 丨 Chen Miaosong is a direct news reporter of Shenzhen Satellite TV

Editor 丨 Zeng Zijin, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

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