How did the Taliban 2.0 do in Afghanistan on the first anniversary of coming to power?

On August 15, Afghan Taliban personnel chanted victory slogans next to the empty US Embassy in Afghanistan to commemorate the first anniversary of the organization's rise to power. In August last year, the Taliban's rapid offensive swept through afghanistan, and the international coalition led by the US military withdrew in a hurry, and the "Kabul Moment" shocked the world! After the storm, the Taliban established an interim government in Afghanistan, hoping to rebuild in the ruins. A year on, both in Afghanistan and in the international community are observing whether the Taliban, who have come back to power, are ruling in the same way and ideology as they were 20 years ago; Under its governance, Afghanistan's society and economy can develop.

"It's a welcome peacetime"

A year ago, on August 15, the Afghan Taliban entered and took over the Afghan capital, Kabul. Two weeks after that, Kabul Airport staged a chaotic escape that shocked the world: tens of thousands of Afghans poured into Kabul Airport, and as U.S. military planes taxied on the runway, many followed the planes, some trying to grab the side of the planes, and at least 6 people fell from the sky; The extremist group Islamic State Khorasan Branch (IS-K) launched a terrorist attack on the airport, while the U.S. military opened fire on the crowd in panic, killing about 200 people, including 13 U.S. troops.

On August 15, the Afghan capital, Kabul, a street near the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. Image source: Visual China

A year later, Kabul Airport has returned to some extent normal, operating a number of Afghan domestic and international flights. The Afghan Interim Government assigned a company based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to be responsible for airport ground service and passenger safety checks, while air traffic control was carried out by Afghans trained by experts from Uzbekistan and Qatar.

Agtamer, an American journalist who has traveled to Afghanistan many times, recently visited this country that has been deeply affected by the war. He wrote in Vanity Fair magazine that the process of entering Afghanistan was similar to his own entry into other countries, but after leaving Kabul airport, the situation was very different: there were checkpoints everywhere, and the Taliban standing guard mixed and matched with traditional Afghan kaftans and previously captured Afghan Army uniforms, often smiling, curious, sometimes shy, sometimes aggressive.

Today's Taliban personnel have begun to "keep up with the times." After exchanging social media accounts with them, Agtamer received selfies, GIFs of roses, and promotional videos from Taliban personnel.

While there are still some Afghans who once worked for Western countries who want to travel to other countries as soon as possible, the security environment in Afghanistan has improved considerably. "There was less violence than previously expected. Fortunately, the devastation of war for as long as in the 1980s and 1990s did not happen again. Stockholm, the ICRC's special adviser in Kabul, said that in the past, the Afghan countryside was almost completely isolated from the outside world, and because of security problems, rural residents rarely went to the cities, but now they can go to the cities and receive better medical services.

The improved security situation has enabled Kabul to maintain basic urban life. Chinese businessman Yu Minghui has been living in Afghanistan for more than 20 years. He told the Global Times that four days after the Taliban "went into town" last year, a newly appointed police chief approached them, told them not to worry, and asked them if they needed help. The police chief said the Taliban could bring their own flatbread and water to stand guard for the merchants, and could set up a police post nearby, "so we were closed for only a week and soon resumed business." Agtamel said that after obtaining a series of permits, foreign journalists can move around Afghanistan, but during his time in Afghanistan, he was full of intelligence agents and he was closely monitored.

According to a Report released by the United Nations in July, armed violence in Afghanistan showed a significant decrease in armed violence from August 15 last year to June 15 this year. Shokat, a researcher at the Institute of Peace and Conflict at Peshawar University in Pakistan, said in an interview with the Global Times that in the past year, the afghan interim government has exceeded many expectations. They are confronted with a shattered society, with the elite in charge of management being taken away by the West and international financial aid. It had been expected that there would be a massive wave of refugees and social unrest in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S. troops, but none of this happened.

However, according to the United Nations report, more than 2,000 civilian casualties have been sustained in Afghanistan over the past year, mostly by islamic attacks launched by IS-K. The Institute for middle East Studies, a U.S. think tank, said IS-K carried out periodic terrorist attacks across Afghanistan. The U.N. report also shows that is-K sees Afghanistan as a base for expansion into the wider region, using "high salaries" to woo extremist groups, including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. IS-K also fired missiles at Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as proof that the Afghan Interim Government did not have full control over all of its territory.

In addition, the Afghan National Resistance Front (NRF) has launched a continuous campaign against the Taliban. According to the Middle East Institute, the Afghan interim government was able to prevent these resistance groups from seizing most of their territory, but it was unable to eliminate them. "Even so, in stark contrast to the turmoil and terror of earlier years, the country is largely at peace." Agtamer said it was a welcome peacetime for some Afghan areas, especially those living in rural areas that have experienced a lot of fighting.

Serious economic difficulties are being experienced

While the overall situation in Afghanistan is stable, the war-torn country is experiencing serious economic difficulties: foreign exchange shortages, rising prices, an intensification of the food crisis... According to the Washington Post on August 2, reports show that in the coming months, about half of Afghanistan's population, or 18.9 million people, will face "potentially life-threatening" hunger, and as many as 6 million people may face "close to famine conditions."

"A lot of people have lost their jobs and I'm one of them." Kabul local journalist Aya (pseudonym) told the Global Times that tens of thousands of people are unemployed, which is a big problem. Yu Minghui, who has been engaged in the trade industry for many years, also deeply felt the "water temperature" of the Afghan economy. He said that now Afghanistan's dollar reserves are seriously insufficient, the run phenomenon is very serious, recently a single bank account can withdraw $400 in cash per week, "a bank account can only withdraw $1600 a month means that businesses can not do business normally, and now Afghan enterprises are basically affected by this situation."

The deterioration of the economic situation has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. Due to insufficient donations from international aid agencies, emergency assistance to Afghanistan is likely to be significantly reduced by November, reaching only 8 percent of the country's population.

After the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, it froze Afghan overseas assets, sanctioned Afghan banks, and obstructed the flow of aid funds into Afghanistan, which was considered to be an important cause of Afghanistan's economic problems. It has also been argued that one of the reasons for Afghanistan's economic difficulties is the lack of experience in the construction of the Afghan Provisional Government. However, the ICRC's special adviser in Kabul, Stocker, said the administrative capacity and understanding of the Taliban 2.0 had improved much compared to the 1990s.

"At that time, the 'Taliban 1.0' management of the economy was to ship some scrap metal from dilapidated foreign factories to sell, grow some vegetables and fruits, and import some oil, sugar and tea. Now 'Taliban 2.0' is facing an already rather complex economy, and they have seen the role that Afghanistan can play in the world, hoping to promote afghanistan's relations with its neighbors to maximize the country's economic potential." Stocker said. He had more than 20 years of contact with the Taliban and sat on the floor chatting with Taliban commanders in the 1990s.

Afghanistan's protection of women's rights is a major concern. According to a Report released by the United Nations in July, the right of Afghan women to participate fully in education, work and public life has been restricted since August 15 last year. Many people are disappointed by this situation. However, foreign women in Afghanistan experience relatively fewer work restrictions.

Afghanistan has also seen many gratifying phenomena. "The world is developing, we need technology," AFP quoted a Taliban official as reporting that the 23-year-old was studying computer lessons in Kabul. Another 25-year-old Taliban member said he applied to a foreign university but was not admitted because he failed an English test.

Treating the Afghan interim government, countries have "temperature differences"

As of now, no country has formally recognized the Afghan Interim Government diplomatically. Afghan interim government spokesman Mujahid recently said the United States is the biggest obstacle to Afghanistan's international recognition. Some US media said that countries have not yet recognized the Afghan interim government, mainly because the Taliban has not yet achieved the goals expected by the international community in terms of guaranteeing women's rights and establishing an inclusive government.

Anas Haqqani, the younger brother of the Acting Minister of the Interior of afghanistan, Silajddin Haqqani, has bluntly stated that in the face of many challenges, the Afghan interim government cannot be expected to achieve all its goals overnight. Shokat, a researcher at the Institute of Peace and Conflict at Peshawar University in Pakistan, told the Global Times that the Afghan interim government has taken actions in economic development, education and other aspects, showing its willingness to cooperate with the international community and jointly promote post-war reconstruction and development in Afghanistan, but these efforts are not achieved overnight, especially on sensitive issues of international concern such as women's study and work.

Some experts say that unlike more than 20 years ago, the Taliban has now become a polycentric, ethnically complex religious, political and military alliance. To achieve its internal balance of power, the Afghan Interim Government has made more mature and robust decisions. However, several Western media, including Agence France-Presse, believe that there are differences between the top brass of the Afghan interim government on the issue of reform. American journalist Ag tamer said that at a recent media conference, moderates in the top echelons of the Afghan interim government wanted to guarantee women's basic rights, including access to education, so as to ensure that Afghanistan could receive international assistance, but hardliners opposed it.

It is not only the Afghan Interim Government that is divided, but also the international community's treatment of the Afghan Interim Government. The Middle East Institute, a U.S. think tank, said that in the United Nations review of Afghanistan, unlike the West, Russia and China have sought to focus THEA's mandate on economic and humanitarian issues rather than on gender issues. China has provided hundreds of millions of yuan worth of aid to Afghanistan. Russia plans to discuss oil exports with a visiting Afghan interim government delegation on August 17.

In addition to China and Russia, many countries are also actively engaging with the Afghan Interim Government. From 25 to 26 July, Uzbekistan held a high-level international conference on Afghanistan in the capital, attended by representatives and experts from more than 20 countries and international organizations. Turkey is also actively involved in domestic construction in Afghanistan. Top Turkish officials said total trade between the two countries increased by 23% year-on-year in the first six months of 2022. In June, India re-established its diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, sending a "technical team" to its embassy in Kabul.

In contrast, the United States and other Western countries seem to be more "wary" of the Afghan provisional government. The European Union's External Action Agency issued a document on August 15 urging the Afghan interim government to honour its international commitments, including counter-terrorism. On July 31, the United States used drones to kill al-Qaida leader Zawahiri in Kabul. This is the first time washington has launched a strike operation in Afghanistan since the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. U.S. officials stressed that the drone strike proved that although U.S. troops withdrew from Afghanistan, Washington still has a long-range strike capability "beyond the horizon" against Afghanistan. U.S. officials have also accused the Taliban of violating their counterterrorism commitments made in the Doha agreement. The Middle East Institute believes that the attack shows that the relations between the Afghan interim government and Western countries will be worse in the foreseeable future.

Source: Global Times