On the morning of August 12, Salman Rushdie, an Indian-British-American writer, was attacked in New York, United States.
Rushdie's situation is not optimistic. In a communication with The New York Times, its agent wrote:
"Rushdie may lose an eye; The nerves in his arms were severed; The liver was also stabbed and damaged."
◎ Rushdie was attacked at the scene.
Image source: AP
In 1981, Rushdie rose to fame with his novel Midnight's Children, winning that year's Booker Prize for Literature.
However, since the publication of the novel "Satan's Psalms" in 1988, the shadow of death and persecution has been hanging over Rushdie.s.
Because the book fictionalizes the life of the Prophet Muhammad, it is considered an act of blasphemy by many Muslims. In 1989, Iran's former supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, issued a killing call, calling on Muslims to kill Rushdie.
◎ The supreme leader is the first leader of Iran, and the president is the second highest official. Pictured is former Supreme Leader Khomeini.
Image source: Explain history
For the next 10 years, Rushdie had to live in anonymity and under the protection of British police.
Although in 1998, then-Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said the threat against Rushdie was completely over, seemingly ending the "death sentence".
However, Ali Khamenei, the successor to Khomeini's supreme leader, said in 2005 that the hunt was still valid.
At this point, we still don't know what the situation of the murdered Rushdie is and whether he is okay.
But from the perspective of Iran's political ecology, it has never been the Iranian president who controls Rushdie's fate, but the supreme leader.
In Iran, religion leads politics, and the president is nothing more than a pot-and-turner supported by religious leaders.
The same is true of Ebrahim Raisi, who became president in August 2021.
◎ On August 3, 2021, at the recognition ceremony in Tehran, Iran, Supreme Leader Khamenei issued an official seal to President Lehi.
Image source: AP
At the time, many believed that this heralded Lehi's post-Khamenei successor to Iran's supreme leader.
However, it turns out that Lehi must not only be in line with Khamenei's position, but also take on the task of carrying the pot when contradictions within society erupt.
Will this be the fate of every Iranian president?
01.
Lehi's dilemma
In June 2022, Arab News reported in a report that "a massive wave of popular anger is engulfing Iran".
Countless people took to the streets, shouting "Lech to die" and protesting.
◎ On May 14, 2022, in the city of Ndimeshk, Khuzestan Province, Iran, people protested against rising prices and food shortages.
Image credit: Anadolu Agency
An important reason for their protest is iran's very bad economic situation in recent years.
Iranian media outlet Shargh quoted this year's Ministry of Labor report as stating:
"About 60 percent of Iranians don't have enough income and suitable jobs. About one in five Iranians are taxi drivers. About 35 to 40 percent of Iranians are tenants. About 20 million people are slum dwellers, which means that about 25 percent of the population is slum dwellers and homeless."
But behind this poverty, the standard of living of Iranians is still falling, and prices are still soaring.
According to statistics, in the first quarter of the Iranian calendar (March 21 to June 21, 2022), the unemployment rate of Iranians aged 18 to 35 was 16.6%, an increase of 1% year-on-year.
At the same time, inflation has reached an all-time high, with monthly inflation rates of 12.2% and peer-to-peer inflation rates of 52.5%, which is currently one of the highest rates of inflation in the world.
◎ Inflation rate in Iran from July 2017 to July 2022.
Image credit: Trading Economics
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Iran's real GDP growth rate in 2022 and 2023 will be only 3% and 2%.
In contrast to this bleak situation, Lehi's promises to the people when he campaigned last year included: combating price increases, creating 1 million jobs a year, reducing inflation and maintaining an 8% GDP growth rate.
The gap between the original promise and the reality has caused the people to fall into depression and extreme dissatisfaction with it.
Corruption is another reason for popular protests.
In May 2022, a 10-story commercial building in Abadan, Iran's Khuzestan governorate, collapsed, killing at least 41 people.
◎ May 24, 2022, Abadan City, the scene after the collapse of the building.
Image credit: AFP
This sparked a riot in Iran that lasted for days, a tragedy known as a "symbol of government corruption."<
This is because the building's developers have successfully taken over numerous construction projects in Khuzestan province by bribing the government and nepotism.
The developer's cutting corners is well known, there was a building collapse disaster 9 years ago, fortunately there were no casualties.
But this time, even though Iran's Union of Building Engineers has issued six warnings about the building's safety, and reporters reported a year ago that the building could collapse, the government has chosen to turn a blind eye and take no practical measures.
After all, the government itself has a lot to gain from these construction projects.
In addition to economics and corruption, Iran is also diplomatically unsatisfactory.
One of Lehi's promises during the campaign was to improve relations with its neighbors.
However, a year on, Iran's overall poor diplomatic relations with nearby countries have not changed much.
Instead of restraining its forces, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to provide support to nearby militant groups.
Yemen's Houthi armed group, for example, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps( IRGC), is one of its main supporters and sponsors, has been supplying weapons to the group, including drones and missiles used by the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, all of which are believed to be linked to Iran.
As for the nuclear issue, Lehi has maintained a tough stance, remaining deadlocked with the United States and not making much progress. (For the Iran nuclear deal, see our previous article "Iran May Be At a Junction Again.")
In terms of society, many problems represented by the "turban problem" have not been properly solved.
Iranian women have been required to wear headscarves since the 1980s. In the 21st century, women over the age of 9 must wear headscarves in public, and anyone who violates the rules is punishable by hefty fines and months in prison.
However, over the past few decades, the call for "anti-turbans" has persisted, and the actual degree of implementation of the relevant regulations has varied from place to place, and different presidents have paid different attention to them.
In December 2017, Vida Movahed, on Ngarab Street in Tehran, first raised her headscarf into the air, setting off a wave of protests against the mandatory wearing of the headscarf.
Image source: AP
The implementation of the Lehi government is almost the strictest.
Lehi argues that non-compliance with the turban rule is "an organized promotion of moral corruption in Islamic society."
He asked government agencies, banks and public transport authorities to refuse to provide services to "bad headscarves" (referring to women who do not wear headscarves) and to have "religious police" crack down on "bad headscarves" on the streets.
This has provoked widespread protests among Iranian women.
As a result, the iranian people's general dissatisfaction with Lehi is completely understandable.
However, lexi cannot be blamed for these problems.
In fact, the main person responsible is Khamenei, who is the real first leader of Iran, and Lehi is only the second in command.
Although Lehi has the status of "president", which is also obtained through elections, Iran's presidential election is largely controlled by the Supreme Leader.
02.
Supreme Leader and President
Iran's presidential election is very special.
On the face of it, the threshold for presidential elections is low, there are no specific age or education requirements for candidates, and the requirements are very generalized, such as: Iranian citizens, have a certain reputation, have ideas, have management ability, believe in Islam, believe in the principles of the Islamic Republic, etc.
Therefore, in every presidential election, there are many people who sign up to participate. For example, in the 2021 general election, as many as 590 people registered to participate in the election.
These applicants, due to their different political positions and different views on future development, will be divided into different factions. Former President Hassan Rouhani, for example, is a moderate, and current President Lehi is a hardliner.
However, the loose conditions and many factions do not mean that these people can really run.
Who can become an official candidate after registration is decided by the Guardian Council of the Iranian Constitution.
The committee consisted of 12 members, 6 of whom were theologians appointed by the Supreme Leader and 6 of whom were jurists nominated by the judiciary and approved by Parliament.
◎ The Guardian Council of the Iranian Constitution integrates administrative, legislative, and judicial duties, and has the three major powers to reject parliamentary bills, review election candidates, and interpret the Constitution. Pictured here is a meeting of the Guardian Council of the Constitution in Tehran on March 10, 2015.
Image credit: AFP
In this way, the Supreme Leader can exert influence and find ways to put his favorite person on the presidential throne.
In the 2021 general election, Khamenei's approach is to control the commission and not give the two threatening factions (reformists and pragmatists) the main candidates, as well as the miscellaneous candidates, official candidates.
As a result, after screening, only 7 of the 590 people successfully passed.
Of the seven, three more withdrew before the vote, leaving only three factions left: hardliners, moderates, and conservatives.
Moderates and conservatives have a hard-core rival in terms of the number of supporters.
The other of the two hardline candidates, Mohsen Rezaei, has few supporters and is equally unable to pose a threat to Lehi.
As a result, only Lech was left with the real candidate, and he was successfully elected.
◎ On June 18, 2021, Lehi voted in the presidential election.
Image source: Wikipedia
Iranians also know this ostensibly democratic election routine, which is actually controlled by the supreme leader. As a result, turnout in the 2021 election fell below 50% for the first time, an all-time low.
Apparently, Iranians are using this to express their dissatisfaction.
Since Khamenei has already decided the president, why should we still perform democratic elections?
However, behind this controlled election is actually Iran's unique political system.
It had the cloak of republicanism and maintained absolute rule dominated by the Supreme Leader.
That's why Iran has both a supreme leader and a president. It disguises itself in the form of democratic elections and the universal leadership of a democratic republic, such as the "president".
But no matter how disguised, its essence as an authoritarian state cannot be changed.
In this theocratic system, which originated from the establishment of Ruhollah Khomeini after the Islamic Revolution, the supreme leader has a dual political and religious leadership position, is the commander-in-chief of the army, and holds the greatest power.
However, it is not democratically elected and is almost lifelong. From 1979 to the present, only two people, Khomeini and Khamenei, have served as supreme leaders.
◎ Khamenei read Khomeini's will.
Image source: Wikipedia
The elected president (whether or not the election is manipulated) is the head of the executive, responsible for ensuring the implementation of the Constitution, which has a major impact on domestic and foreign affairs, but he must submit to the Supreme Leader.
It is true that this system is adapted to Allah sovereignty, but from the perspective of power constraints, it is very problematic. (For Iran's theocracy, see our previous article", "What's Next in the Middle East After the U.S. Beheading.")
For the Supreme Leader, Iran's system is very favorable. They exert their will fully, but they do not have to bear the corresponding maximum responsibility.
Much of the responsibility rests with the president. The president is elected by the people and must be responsible for the will of the people, so he has become the most suitable backer.
However, the power of the Iranian president is not small, but because the power actually comes from the supreme leader, if his position is contrary to the supreme leader, he will soon lose power.
The best example is Khomeini's student Hussein-Ali Montazeri.
He was the successor to Khomeini's designated Supreme Leader.
But in the late 1980s, Montazeri's relative, Mehdi Hashemi, was executed, and Montazeri's opposition to harsh treatment of opponents and dissidents led to growing differences over freedom and human rights.
◎ Montazeri and Khamenei.
Image source: Wikipedia
Eventually, Khomeini broke with Montazeri, who stripped him of his succession and was succeeded by Khamenei.
But for now, Lech won't be the next Montazeri, but will be in line with Khamenei.
In fact, Lehi's rise can almost be said to have been forged by Khamenei.
In the 1980s, during Khamenei's presidency, the obscure Lehi was selected from a group of clerics to become a prosecutor and then a member of the "Four Death Squad" that specifically ordered the execution of political prisoners.
◎ 1980s, Lehi during the Iran-Iraq War.
Image source: Wikipedia
When Khamenei became Supreme Leader, Lehi became his student and made his way through politics, first as deputy chief justice and then as attorney general.
After his first unsuccessful presidential bid in 2017, perhaps as compensation, Khamenei made him head of the judiciary.
When you become the head of the judicial department, you will naturally grasp the power of judicial interpretation, and you will also grasp the power of life and death in an authoritarian country.
Now, as a president who wears a pair of pants with the Supreme Leader, his power will only be greater.
Still, the crisis Lehi is currently facing cannot be underestimated.
As the Iranian activist Amir Taheri has pointed out, the unrest was not focused on a single issue, but on deeper and broader grievances.
Lehi is facing "a regime's worst nightmare".
So, how much of a challenge will this be for Lehi?
03.
Lehi's fate
In fact, while Lehi looks a bit distraught at the moment, Khamenei's support for him is still relatively adequate.
In April, Khamenei said the Lehi government was "loyal and diligent" and that negotiations on a new nuclear deal were "on track" .
By May, for visiting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Khamenei mentioned that "the president and government of the Islamic Republic of Iran are indeed vibrant."
◎ On May 8, 2022, Khamenei, Lehi and Assad were talking.
Image source: Wikipedia
From public information, Khamenei has never expressed his dissatisfaction with Lehi as he has treated some of his predecessors.
Lehi spared no effort to ensure that there were no major contradictions or estrangements between him and Khamenei.
As for popular protest, for an authoritarian state, its impact may not be as great as imagined.
Moreover, if Lehi wants to ease the contradictions, it is not impossible, and one of the most direct ways is to make the overly tough policies mild and flexible.
For example, on the Iranian nuclear issue, if Lehi is willing to step back a little and reach a compromise so that the United States will no longer impose comprehensive sanctions on Iran, the economy will immediately get better.
There are cases in history. In 2015, after signing the nuclear deal, the United States lifted most of its economic sanctions on Iran. Iran's economy picked up rapidly.
◎ In July 2015, representatives of countries and organizations participated in the consultation.
Image source: Wikipedia
Throughout the term of the agreement, Iran's economy grew by 17 percent, created 3.5 million new jobs, and significantly reduced poverty in major cities.
Of course, if it does, it may cause Lehi to lose some of the support of hardline voters.
But the loss could also give him the support of a part of the pragmatic electorate.
However, for Lech, this is probably not easy.
Khamenei proposed the concept of the "resistance economy", arguing that self-sufficiency in everything was the best way to protect against Western invasion.
Lehi openly subscribes to this concept, is not interested in foreign capital investment in Iran, and only hopes to some extent that the United States can ease sanctions to obtain frozen assets and oil and gas markets.
This shows the toughness of his position.
But as Machiavelli said, a mature leader should be both cunning and fierce like a lion.
Lehi is now more like a pure lion, fierce and cunning. Being too tough often doesn't lead to too good results.
But in any case, despite the crisis, the probability of Lech stepping down or removing the top leader's successor is not very high.
Khamenei is 83 years old and in poor health.
By controlling the elections and sending Leahy to the presidency, he was historically repeating his own line of being president twice under Khomeini and then becoming his successor.
This is a kind of inheritance, and it can also solve the problem of the transition of power smoothly and maintain the political stability of Iran.
From 1981 to 1989, Khamenei served as President of Iran. The picture shows Khamenei and Khomeini.
Image source: BBC
Whether this succession is supported and wanted by the Iranian people is probably not the focus of Khamenei and Lehi's main concern.
Soaring fuel prices also sparked a riot in 2019, when Iranians also expressed their anger at the government through mass protests.
However, after the protests, nothing changed.
As Mohammed Al-Sulami, an expert on Iranian studies, has said, in Iran, don't expect it to make real change.
In the face of the protests, the Iranian government has never shown any interest in fundamental reforms.
In the future, there is little indication that the suffering of the Iranians may be completely alleviated.
Now, as a back-cooker, Lehi shares the responsibility for Khamenei, and his fate towards the Supreme Leader has gradually become clear.
This seems to be closely related to the fate of ordinary Iranians, but in reality it is not related to each other. Because the hard fate of ordinary Iranians has never been blurred.
As Montesquieu said:
"In a republican system, everyone is equal because man is everything; In an authoritarian regime, everyone is equal because they are worthless." ■
Resources
‘Death to Khamenei’: the protests convulsing Iran. The Week, 2022-06-10.
Iran: How a unique system runs the country. BBC, 2021-06-18.
Alex Vatanka. Whose Iran Is It Anyway?. Foreign Policy, 2022-08-05.
Bobby Ghosh. Why Iran's new President Raisi will listen only to his mentor: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Print, 2021-08-03.
Jason Brodsky. The Next Supreme Leader: Is Iran's Ebrahim Raisi Destined for Greatness?. The National Interest, 2022-08-08.
Majid Rafizadeh. Iran's difficulties increase after a year of Raisi's presidency. Arab News, 2022-08-11.
Maziar Motamedi, Alia Chughtai. Iran elections: Meet the men running for president. Aljazeera, 2021-06-16.
Rahman Bouzari, Ali Fathollah-Nejad. A country in free fall, a corruptocracy in full swing: Why a building collapse in Iran matters. MEI, 2022-06-07.
Reza Haghighatnejad. Montazeri and the Men who Mattered: Iran Then and Now. Iranwire, 2016-08-16.
Zoya Hussain. The Veil Of Injustice: What Is Iran's Anti-Hijab Campaign Against State's Strict Hijab Law. India Times, 2022-07-20.