The Paper's reporter Liu Hui
Two food powers, Russia and Ukraine, are mired in military conflict, and the global wheat market has been volatile for a time. With the good offices of Turkey and the United Nations, significant progress has been made in the Russian-Ukrainian food negotiations. On July 22, Kiev and Moscow reached an agreement on a ukrainian grain export mechanism in Istanbul.
On July 22, 2022, local time, Istanbul, Turkey, UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar attended the signing ceremony of the "Ukrainian Food Security Transport Initiative". Visual China figure
This is the first major agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine since the february 24 conflict. "Today, there is a lighthouse on the Black Sea," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a speech to The Russian and Ukrainian representatives at the scene: "You have overcome obstacles, set aside differences and paved the way for an initiative that serves the common interests of all." ”
Russia allowed Ukraine to export grain from the Black Sea, and millions of tons of Ukrainian grain were eventually able to enter the market, but will the alarm of the global food crisis be lifted? The answer is not optimistic. In an interview with the www.thepaper.cn, Sophia Murphy, executive director of the Institute for Agricultural and Trade Policy Studies (IATP), described a crisis that transcends the Russian-Ukrainian conflict – even if the war is over now, the global famine problem will remain serious.
Sophia Murphy, Executive Director of the Institute for Agricultural and Trade Policy (IATP).
After the signing of the food agreement between Russia and Ukraine, countries like Egypt, which were previously extremely dependent on imports of Russian and Ukrainian wheat (80%), may be able to breathe a sigh of relief, but they will soon find that food security is still a "luxury" because of inflation and other factors. Global inflation has not yet peaked, and the food system crisis cannot be easily defused by a bilateral agreement.
"Wheat is very important for many poorer countries, but inflation is actually more linked to energy, and the rapid spike in food prices is due to the difficulties faced by logistics systems on the one hand, and the wider inflation, the impact of THE NEW CROWN pandemic and fluctuations in energy markets on the other." Murphy parsed.
In early July, the state of food security and nutrition in the world, released by five UN agencies, said that the number of hungry people in the world would increase to 828 million by 2021, and progress towards the eradication of hunger and malnutrition in the world would be reversed. "Conflict, extreme weather and economic shocks are major contributors to food insecurity and malnutrition." The report's foreword reads, "We must show greater courage and decisive action to build resilience to future shocks." ”
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has undoubtedly exacerbated the food crisis, but to solve the problem of famine, every country and society needs to do more. "Whether or not governments themselves believe that people should be provided with a more secure food security, this is a 'political necessity' for social stability," Murphy said. ”
Sanctions exempting food are traditional tactics
The Paper: There was a global food price crisis between 2007 and 2008, when rising energy costs, growing demand for biofuels, trade shocks due to export restrictions, panic rushes and adverse weather played a role. Today, we seem to be facing similar situations such as soaring energy prices and rising prices, is it possible that a food price crisis similar to that of 15 years ago will happen again?
Murphy: I don't think it's going to be that serious in the short term. The crisis of 2007-2008 affected more crops than there are today, as a result of several simultaneous events, such as widespread panic caused by the reduction in production in several major food-producing regions around the world. Another example is drought, which we have also encountered this year.
On July 4, 2022 local time, in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, 10 kilometers from the front line, a farmer harvested crops in a field around a rocket crater. Visual China figure
The price of rice was particularly affected that year, affecting the food security of almost half the world. For countries with large population bases, such as India and Indonesia, many were embroiled in the "rice economy" during the 2008 crisis. Although the international market for rice itself is small, it is crucial for some countries.
This time the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, and the wheat market was particularly affected. This impact does not refer to global wheat production, but to the export market and logistics system of wheat, that is, how it is traded. In fact, Ukraine's grain stock is very high, but exports cannot be shipped out in the case of Russia's blockade of Black Sea ports. Ukraine has a certain amount of production this year, wheat has been sown this spring, is being harvested, the biggest problem facing the process is a huge logistical bottleneck.
Overall, wheat is important for many poorer countries, but inflation is actually more associated with energy, and the rapid spike in food prices is due to a combination of difficulties facing logistics systems, broader economic inflation, the impact of COVID-19 and fluctuations in energy markets.
The Paper: So we are not short of food, but a lack of cheap food for consumption?
Murphy: The claim that the world is currently facing food shortages is inaccurate. The data shows that global food crop production has been increasing since the 1960s, and famine is more like the result of political decisions and distribution.
For now, most people in the world have enough food to spend more money on buying increasingly expensive wheat, and can still spend their money looking for alternatives (other than wheat). However, in some specific kinds of food, the world is indeed facing a crisis of shortages.
In China, food prices have not changed much due to government policy adjustments. In Russia and Ukraine, the largest food-importing countries, such as Africa, food prices are much higher. Nowadays almost every country is experiencing inflation, food prices are soaring, and everyone is talking about it. If we all saw that this was not just a Russian-Ukrainian issue, and we were all affected, perhaps it would make more sense. It's like even though you don't want people to suffer, you want them to realize that this problem is happening.
We are indeed facing a real crisis, because the food system is not functioning enough to guarantee production, it is a complex system. We must rethink our energy and food systems to make them more resilient.
The Paper: The conflict in Ukraine has put the West in a dilemma, on the one hand, they want to exclude Russia completely from the global market, but on the other hand, humanity still needs to cooperate together on global warming, food crisis and energy issues.
Murphy: In my opinion, this is indeed a real dilemma. Looking at the example of Europe, energy is more important than food. European countries have alternatives to other food and will not face famine. Some of the grain companies that remain in Russia continue to operate within their means.
Most of the people in dire need of food (imported from Russia and Ukraine) and the country are relatively poor, and they cannot quickly find alternative resources for other cereal species. The current situation is a bit like the comprehensive sanctions imposed by the United States on Iraq since the 1980s (the "showdown policy"), in which Iraq is not allowed to export oil but is allowed to buy food from Iran.
So it's a very traditional way to deal with food with sanctions exemptions. The point is that if you stop exporting food, it will actually hurt other countries more than it would hurt Russia. On some issues, even if you subjectively only want to sanction Russia, it is actually the weaker and more vulnerable countries that are hurting more.
Of course, food is important, but for Russia, crude oil is certainly more important than grain, so from the perspective of economic value, the income from Russian grain and fertilizer entering the international market is not so valuable.
The Paper: The International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food) released a report in May titled "Another Perfect Storm?" The Russian-Ukrainian conflict triggered the third food price crisis in 15 years, the report said. The special report blames the escalation of food insecurity on fundamental deficiencies in the global food system – such as heavy dependence on food imports and excessive commodity speculation. These deficiencies were exposed but not corrected after the spike in food prices in 2007-2008. Does this mean that countries should reduce their dependence on food imports?
Murphy: It's not an easy question to answer. In my opinion, if you are an "agricultural power" with vast land and huge indigenous grain productivity like China or the United States, you can use "trade" as a means of increasing wealth and improving national food security. If you encounter crop yield reduction or swine fever, you can also import some grain, but the "big head" of food consumption is still in China. If you're in a desert country that doesn't have growing technology and investments that rival those of a large agricultural country, such as Saudi Arabia, you might import food to meet the demand for food supplies.
England is another story, and despite its own land resources suitable for growing food, its food imports are still high because it takes the land for other purposes. Due to its strong national strength, the UK is more resistant to risks in terms of food security. Often the smaller the country, the greater the volume of food import transactions, and the key question is whether the country has the ability to protect incomes and cope with markets with fluctuating food prices.
Given the continued volatility in food prices, I believe that every country should at least guarantee a certain amount of indigenous food stocks. Just like the food price in Ukraine, although it soars and then falls, if you are a country like Egypt, you probably can't afford to risk a food shortage in the middle of two months. Egyptian residents need to eat that day, and they cannot wait until 2 months after the price of food falls. So the state needs a strategy that depends on the size, affluence, and productive potential of the country.
Food security is a political necessity
The Paper: So is it understandable that the country needs to have a more robust food system and provide better security for the people?
Murphy: First, according to my observation, this is the right thing to do, whether [the state] is subjectively willing or not, whatever the ideology of the state. The government certainly does not want the people to go hungry, which is not a good thing for the stability of the government. Whether or not the government itself believes that people should be provided with a more secure food security, this is a "political necessity".
Secondly, the role of the market is also obvious. I believe that China has a deep understanding of this, and the market has stimulated the creativity and huge capital of the main body, and has also created more jobs and brought more wealth to people. The market doesn't care how wealth is distributed, but the government does. The government should ensure the minimum living security for every resident, the issue of food and clothing is the "non-negotiable" requirement, maybe you can't afford to buy a car, maybe you can't eat meat every day, but you have to meet the minimum level of food and clothing, which is the role of "protector" played by every government.
In some countries, public institutions also play a large role in the distribution of food, and much of the food supply is achieved outside the role of the market and the Government. They are involved in securing people's most basic food supply, because we know that food is the source of everything. Without solving the problem of food and clothing, people cannot work, cannot learn, and cannot make progress.
I think the challenging part is, how do these two forces work together? The market does what it is supposed to do, but it also needs a force that is in opposition to the market economy to protect the public economy, and food is affected by these two distributional logics.
On August 10, 2021, local time, in Caracas, Venezuela, 63-year-old Luis Diaz was farming in farmland near La Vega. Visual China Infographic
The Paper: In some countries, although it produces a lot of grain and grain, the local people do not have enough food security, such as Myanmar. Is this because they did not handle the relationship between the above two logics?
Murphy: Yes. In most cases, there is also a lot of food in war zones, such as Ukraine. Perhaps in some of the countries in the East African region that are located in the core arid regions, food production is a problem because they cannot grow their own food. But in more places, the problem is not a shortage of food production, but not enough money to buy, or a smooth logistics system to transport. In this case, perhaps one should think about how to protect the functioning of the supply chain, rather than worrying about insufficient food production.
I think for many countries, the solution to this kind of situation is to improve the social security system. Like the U.S. government, it may provide monetary guarantees; Egypt will provide food security; In India, you can sometimes also get rice and lentils at special ration stores; There are many non-profit organizations in North American countries, and churches spontaneously established by citizens will become an important source of food supply. Different governments have different social security systems.
The Paper: Some countries in the world have more reliable food systems, can you give us some examples, and what can we learn from their experience?
Murphy: My point is that people can learn from each other from different latitudes. China has an impressive history of grain cultivation and has a rich local grain production. China still allows some grain to be traded, for example, while the government guarantees annual grain production and strategic reserves. In countries like Norway and Switzerland, they have almost no food shortages, and although they do not grow grain on a large scale and are "net importers" of food, they have a complete social security system to eliminate poverty, and the poor are basically resettled.
There are also countries, such as pacific island countries, which are not financially rich, but there is an adequate supply of food that people need, because the land in these countries is arable and the food variety is rich, with fish, vegetables and various foods. So my answer is that there are many different types of answers to this question, some involving financial resources and some involving productive capacity.
I believe that a lot of times the answer [to ensure the resilience of food systems] is investment in the possibilities of the future. For example, one of the problems that everyone must strive to solve in the future is environmental protection, and everyone will face many challenges such as the lack of freshwater resources. If the soil is overexploited, it will endanger future production. These can hinder the good functioning of food systems.
The Paper: The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and others proposed the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 2015, which included ending hunger by 2030, a goal that was later considered impossible. But in the long run, do you think we should expect it to be realized? Maybe one day we can eliminate hunger, just as technological developments have endless possibilities?
Murphy: I think the current global food production certainly feeds every individual in the world. The key problem is that we don't distribute food fairly, there is an uneven distribution, and there is wasteful behavior, for example, Iowa, the United States, has a lot of food reserves, but in Kenya, people are hungry because of dry weather, and how to get food is not always a simple matter. But I have always believed that the eradication of famine remains an imaginable goal for humanity.
As the proportion of hungry people becomes lower and lower, people encounter increasingly complex social problems, for example, sometimes people do not eat because they drink heavily, and sometimes people do not eat because of a lack of care from their loved ones. We may not be able to completely let hunger go away, but we can eliminate food shortages and ensure that everyone gets food when they need it.
Just like literacy rates, universal literacy is a goal to be pursued, but there will always be people who are unable to read and read for a number of unimaginable reasons. But I think this can be used as an analogy that the vision that "every individual has absolute subsistence rights and is protected" is pursuable, but how to achieve this goal is not the only "template".
Often, when a society is more cohesive and has a strong sense of national identity, the government is more able to take care of the food and clothing of each individual. But when there is a tear in public opinion in the country, for example, in North America, many indigenous people are divided from the first generation of immigrants, the two are in different economic circles, the indigenous people want more autonomy, the relationship between different groups is very complicated, and they are bullied by the government at that time, so the indigenous people eat very badly. For them, hunger is not simply due to the inability to get food, but is rooted in a long and complex history.
Multilateralism is essential
The Paper: Climate change is also a topic of particular concern to everyone in recent years. This summer, many places, including Europe, the United States and China, were very hot and unbearable. If people are reluctant to even go out and cannot carry out their daily activities, what impact do you think this will have on farmers and even food production patterns?
On July 20, 2022, local time, in Bucharest, the capital of Romania, couples embraced in the city fountain. Visual China figure
Murphy: I'm sure there's already technology that's there that's been there that's working on this. Previous studies by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations have shown that people cannot work in high temperatures. When the temperature rises, work efficiency decreases even when sitting in an office. Not to mention certain periods of time outdoors.
This working condition is very dangerous. This is also the case in North America, partly due to hot weather, but also affected by different immigration policies, as Countries in North America rely on large migrant labor and machines are taking over the jobs of some people. So I think this different kind of AI technology development will replace some mechanical, repetitive work tasks, such as irrigation.
These technologies are all rapidly evolving, but they also face the dilemma of how to distribute them, and will they be used to deal with the problem of absolute poverty in some countries in Africa? At the same time, less developed countries will not have the same level of investment as developed countries, and all technologies require corresponding inputs to be realized, so the question of fairness eventually comes back to us.
In addition, we still need water resources to grow grain, and the question is who provides fresh water resources? We can produce better electricity resources and more decentralized, renewable and clean energy sources like solar, but who will provide it? These issues can also be addressed to food issues.
The most worrying problem with global warming is that it will cause sudden changes. Although humans are very intelligent, no one is sure whether humans will be able to adapt quickly to these changes. The IATP, where I work, is committed to eliminating unnecessary harm to the environment caused by food production and seeking to change policies to ensure that our food crops are environmentally friendly enough.
But I think in the next hundred years, food crop production will face more challenges.
The Paper: As you mentioned, when we rely too much on technology to adapt to the new environment, will there be a new "inequality" situation? For example, some countries will be far behind.
Murphy: I think we've witnessed this fact, which was one of the completely unexpected but unfortunate outcomes of the Green Revolution , also known as the Third Agricultural Revolution , which took place in the late 1950s and late 1960s. Some countries have produced so much food as a result of a series of technological updates that food prices have fallen, and farmers in others have been unable to compete because the latter have not experienced the Green Revolution. These countries have not increased investment in irrigation and infrastructure to compete with countries with high agricultural inputs.
The Green Revolution has led us to dramatically reduce hunger on a global scale, and even as the global population doubles, we have dramatically reduced our hunger from one-third to one-seventh. But we have also paid some price for it, such as losing a diversified food system. Because we have large and very cheap rice, many other crops and other production systems are neglected, resulting in food systems losing some of their resilience.
Due to the success of the Green Revolution, we have not done a good job of diversifying our food systems, missing a lot of corresponding knowledge and land resources. I believe that countries need to commit to diversification and decentralization as they embark on a new round of investment, ready for the irresistible changes and challenges of the future.
The Paper: What do you think is the biggest challenge we are facing right now? What else can governments and public organizations do?
Murphy: I think one of the main challenges, at least in the West, is that short-term-driven financial factors keep us away from long-term sustainable investing. It won't be effective until governments genuinely show a willingness to focus on long-term development, such as the U.S. government's recent willingness to take climate change seriously. But agricultural policies that go in the wrong direction are difficult to reform, which is a challenge for many countries around the world.
The second challenge is that people think they have to grow food before they care about the environment. In fact, if people don't care about the environment, food cultivation is even less likely to succeed. So we have to change that mindset, we have to change the understanding of "cheap food" (not just low prices but high environmental costs), and the state must be more involved and guide the dissemination of a longer-term perspective.
From the current point of view, in order to ensure that people's food and clothing problems are not affected by the food price system, I believe that the "public food economy" needs to be enlarged, while the "market food economy" needs to be contracted. This is a huge challenge, but it can be achieved based on certain policies or objectives, such as the previously mentioned UN's 2030 Agenda. If the Government fulfils these obligations, it is possible to achieve them.
But the reality is that countries are fighting over who should do more. On the one hand, who pays more is certainly worth discussing, but on the other hand, it's irrelevant because climate change doesn't care which country pays more. Therefore, it is also a huge political challenge. Climate issues, food issues are closely linked to national interests, so we need collective efforts. This solidarity has historically existed, but we have not seen it recently in our cooperation on climate and food.
The Paper: Multilateralism is experiencing some degree of collapse, and countries seem to be more keen to emphasize the interests of their own countries and allies rather than broad cooperation. What is the negative impact on the food problem?
Murphy: I've always believed in multilateralism because I don't see other solutions. The United States cannot solve the problem of climate warming alone, nor can China. Therefore, on certain issues, there must be consultations among States. Like the Paris Agreement, countries' powers are divided, "you fulfill your obligations, I fulfill my obligations," but ultimately technology sharing and joint action.
There are a lot of political forces that are opposed to multilateral cooperation right now, but my organization is committed to building connections between countries, and I think most people in the world understand that people need to cooperate. Another fact is that one does not actually have to wait for the United Nations to solve the problem or for the highest leadership of the country to fully agree to cooperate before acting.
Right now, perhaps the tearing of public opinion in the United States has created a lot of political differences, and it is difficult for the government to move forward with measures to combat climate change, but you will find that in some state governments, there have been some new policy proposals to advance change. I don't think there will be a "grain tsar" to coordinate distribution, solve all problems, and contribute from all levels.
At the same time, I do see some very important cooperation in the food sector, and China is participating in it. For example, FAO created AMIS (Agricultural Market Information System), which focuses on the sharing of information on global agricultural products, because it is more transparent and can alleviate the volatility of food markets. It tells us that, in addition to politics, technical cooperation can have an important impact.
(The Paper's intern Hanmeng Li also contributed to this article)
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