According to the Report of Turkey's Anadolu News Agency quoted by the Global Network, on May 27, local time, NATO Secretary-General Stultenberg said that no country is as deeply affected by terrorism as Turkey, and Sweden and Finland must solve the demands made by turkey on the issue of combating terrorism. If Turkey's demands are not met, Sweden and Finland will not be able to become official NATO candidates at the NATO summit in June. He also used the example of North Macedonia to remind Finland and Sweden that it took more than a decade for North Macedonia to enter the treaty because of Greece's opposition.
This is the first time that Stoltenberg has publicly acknowledged that the process of Finland and Sweden's accession to the treaty may be blocked, and it also means that NATO's plan to expand northwards has been temporarily blocked due to Turkey's request. It is worth noting that Stoltenberg has always claimed that once Sweden and Finland apply to join NATO, they will soon be approved, and even he himself said that in the process of Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO, NATO can provide them with protection in advance. When Turkey raised objections, Stoltenberg still firmly believed that Sweden and Finland would officially obtain nato candidate status at the NATO summit held in Madrid from June 28 to June 30 according to the original plan, and Stoltenberg also said that NATO members had almost no objections, but the face punch soon happened. Stoltenberg confirmed that he and the United States could equal Turkey on the issue of Finland and Sweden's accession, but did not expect that the outcome would be reversed.
NATO's access rules have become an opportunity for Turkey to knock the United States and Europe
According to NATO's access rules, if you want to become a candidate and full member of NATO, there is a hard rule, that is, all NATO members must vote in favor, as long as one country opposes or raises objections, the identity and status of NATO member states cannot be discussed, which is very similar to the EU's access rules, they practice the principle of "unanimity", not the principle of "majority". It is worth noting that when the United States first designed this rule, it was also to unite Western Europe to the greatest extent and jointly contain the Soviet Union, but it did not expect that it has now become a bargaining chip between other countries and the United States and NATO.
Stoltenberg's dispute between Greece and North Macedonia is a typical example, after the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, Macedonia was separated and established as the "Republic of Macedonia", but the name of this country was strongly opposed by Greece, and there was a Macedonian province in northern Greece, so the two countries had a big dispute. Subsequently, "Macedonia" was repeatedly vetoed by Greece on the road to accession to the treaty and the Alliance, and "Macedonia" was forced to change its name.
This time, Sweden and Finland are seeking to join NATO, which has allowed Turkey to see an opportunity. Sweden and Finland's accession to the treaty has great benefits for the United States and NATO, which can make the NATO alliance stronger, closer to Russia's borders, and can further threaten Russia's Northern Fleet and nuclear submarine bases. So Erdogan saw this and offered a series of conditions to the United States, Sweden, and Finland.
Previously, Bloomberg had quoted several anonymous Turkish officials as announcing the conditions set by Erdogan, which included sweden and Finland must sever ties with the Turkish Workers' Party and the Syrian Kurdish organization and identify them as terrorist organizations; resolve the Cyprus dispute; lift the arms embargo previously imposed by Turkey against Syrian Kurdish forces; the United States want turkey to return Turkey to the joint production of F-35 fighter jets; sell F-35 fighter jets and F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. The 16 fighter jets will also be upgraded to turkey's current F-16 fighters.
It has to be said that Erdogan has set out a lot of conditions, and these conditions are important obstacles between Turkey and the West for a long time, and it seems that Turkey has seized the opportunity this time to prepare to solve them completely.
The Kurdish problem is secondary, and Turkey intends to F-35 fighters
Previously, the diplomatic teams of Sweden and Finland had visited Ankara one after another to negotiate these conditions with Turkey. However, after the fact, Turkey still did not say anything about the accession of Finland and Sweden. In fact, for Turkey, his central focus is on the last few conditions, which is the hope that the United States can lift a series of arms sanctions imposed on Turkey in the past, especially the F-35 fighter jet.
At present, Turkey's demand for F-35 fighters is very willing, first of all, Turkey is an important party of the F-35 fighter joint production project, returning to the project, is conducive to the development of Turkey's military industry, and as the number of countries to buy F-35 fighters continues to increase, he can also get more economic benefits; secondly, Turkey's air force has also arrived at the time of upgrading, F-35 fighters are the most important alternative to the Turkish Air Force. At the same time, Turkey is transforming the amphibious assault ship previously purchased from Spain into the first aircraft carrier in its history, the "Anadolu", but the aircraft carrier must have carrier-based aircraft, and the lack of carrier-based aircraft is ultimately a decoration, and the F-35 fighter series that Turkey ordered from the United States includes F-35B fighters useful on aircraft carriers.
Therefore, for Turkey, it is not enough for the Swedish and Finnish delegations to come, and the Americans must also come to negotiate terms with Turkey. And time is running out of time for the upcoming Summit in Madrid on June 28, and it is estimated that Erdogan is forcing the Americans to negotiate with Turkey. However, it is worth noting that even if the United States comes to Turkey to negotiate, I am afraid that only F-35 fighters are not enough, and recently Erdogan has revealed his willingness to expand the security zone in northern Syria, and it is estimated that erdogan will put forward additional conditions to the United States on this issue, so that the United States can make concessions to Turkey on the issue of the security zone in northern Syria. For Turkey, the Kurdish armed forces in northern Syria are a branch of turkey's domestic separatist organization, the Kurdish Workers' Party, which is a big problem, while the United States is the most important supporter of the Kurdish armed forces in northern Syria.
It is worth noting that in addition to Turkey, the Balkan country of Croatia has also taken up the idea. Croatian President Zoran Milanovic has said that he has instructed the diplomatic service to vote against Finland and Sweden's accession to the treaty, unless NATO can help resolve the issue of the voting rights of ethnic Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina. "Croatia should not approve anyone to join NATO until the electoral issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina are resolved and they provide basic rights for Croats," he said to the outside world. Is Finland more important to us than the Croats in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina? ”
It is difficult for the United States and Turkey to make concessions on the issue of warplanes, and Finland and Sweden's accession to the treaty may be seriously delayed
I have to say that this time Finland and Sweden are seeking to join NATO, and it has become a bamboo lever for other countries to knock the United States and NATO, bargaining with the United States, which is really a great irony. It is unclear whether the United States will be able to meet these conditions of Turkey, Croatia, and especially Turkey, each of which is a valuable demand. In particular, the F-35 fighter is estimated to be difficult for the United States to make concessions. Because the United States is very worried that once the F-35 fighter is sold to Turkey, the Russian S-400 deployed in Turkey will obtain confidential data about the F-35 fighter, which is also an important technical consideration for the United States to decide to sanction Turkey on the S-400 procurement issue. And the United States is also worried that if it opens its mouth for Turkey on the F-35 fighter program this time, it is likely to trigger other NATO members to follow suit.
But for Turkey, it is also difficult to make concessions on these conditions. If you look closely at the map of Europe, you will find that Sweden and Finland are likely to be the last geopolitical expansions of NATO. Once Turkey has lost this bargaining opportunity, it will be difficult to find such a good opportunity in the future. Therefore, it is estimated that Erdogan will find it difficult to make major concessions on this issue.
Although Stoltenberg is explicitly talking about letting Sweden and Finland meet Turkey's demands, the essence behind the problem is the game between the United States and Turkey, but in the current context, it is expected that it will be difficult for the United States and Turkey to reach an agreement on these issues, especially the F-35 fighter, if this is the case, the accession process of Sweden and Finland will be seriously delayed. I have to say that Erdogan has invisibly helped Putin this time.