From the rupture of the main shaft of the aircraft carrier "Elizabeth", to the accidental crash of the F-35B, to the "escape plan" before the Russo-Ukrainian War that "once the Russian army enters Ukraine, the British army will immediately withdraw into Poland", the image of the British army in the Chinese Internet seems to have become a laughing stock. In fact, the level of the British army has indeed decreased in recent years, and the size of the naval fleet has shrunk even more. There were only 6 Type 45 destroyers, and they were sometimes faulty, often lying in harbor together. This year marks the 40th anniversary of the Anglo-Armagh War, and the Argentine government has also made some harsh remarks, with the intention of vigorously fighting to reclaim the Falklands. So, if the British navy is so weak, why didn't the Afghan army take the opportunity to take back the Falklands? In fact, the Argentine army does not want to, but it cannot, because Argentina's strength is worse than britain.
The outcome of the Falklands War depended on the showdown between Afghan air power and the British Navy
The Falklands are 18,000 miles away from britain, but on the doorstep of Argentina, the battle for the Falklands has a home combat advantage for Argentina, and the British only have the method of sending fleets. For both sides, although it is a battle for the Falklands, the focus is not on the seizure of the islands but on naval battles. Argentina needed to make the British fleet retreat at an unbearable price before the British expeditionary fleet took the Falklands, and the British needed to send the Marines to the Falklands with as much loss as possible.
For Argentina, a weak navy simply could not afford to refuse the British navy, only to increase the number of unnecessary casualties. And Argentina also did not have a shore-based missile force, so the task of attacking the British Navy fell entirely to the Argentine Air Force. In the Falklands War of 1982, in order to get Britain to withdraw from the war due to excessive losses, it was not enough to sink one or two destroyers or cruise ships, and the most direct and effective way was to send the two aircraft carriers "Invincible" and "Athletic" as the core of the fleet to the bottom of the sea. The loss of any aircraft carrier would force the British to return home, and it was not impossible to compare the strength of the two sides at that time.
The aircraft carrier "Invincible" returning from the Falklands
At that time, Argentina's air-based anti-ship forces mainly relied on the A-4 "Aquila" attack aircraft and the "Super Flag" attack aircraft that could launch "Flying Fish" anti-ship missiles. However, the latter were grossly under-represented, with only five Super Flags and five Flying Fish missiles at the outbreak of war. Although the former has a relatively large number of aircraft, with more than fifty aircraft, it is older and can only use relatively backward air-side dive attack methods.
A-4 attack aircraft of the Argentine Naval Aviation
Although britain has put together a grand two-carrier formation, there are many fundamental loopholes in its defense system, so the Afghan Air Force is not without opportunities. The most prominent problem is the British double aircraft carrier, which is a ski-jump aircraft carrier with a vertical take-off and landing aircraft. The carrier-based aircraft dispatch efficiency of the ski-jump aircraft carrier is low, about 1/10 of the catapult aircraft carrier, and it is difficult to carry the carrier-based fixed-wing early warning aircraft, usually only carrying the carrier-based early warning helicopter, and the early warning capability is quite weak. In order to take off and land vertically, vertical take-off and landing aircraft generally sacrifice combat performance, and the "Harrier" type can only launch the "Sidewinder" infrared guided missile, and cannot use radar-guided missiles to launch over-the-horizon strikes, and the interception capability is not optimistic.
In 1978, the last "Gannet" AEW·3 AWACS aircraft were retired, and the British did not actually have any ship-based AWACS during the Falklands War
It is precisely because the British twin-carrier formation is flawed in the defense system that the weak Argentine army has the opportunity to use the air force and naval aviation to seal the throat of the British aircraft carrier. The sinking of the "Atlantic Transporter" on the side of the "Invincible" aircraft carrier by the "Flying Fish" missile shows that the British aircraft carrier is not absolutely safe. By the end of the war, the British had lost two destroyers and two frigates, and many others had been damaged.
After 40 years, Argentina's hopes of taking back the Falklands are hopeless
After understanding the duel between argentine air-based anti-ship forces and British two-aircraft carrier formations in the Falklands War, this set of examination methods can be brought into today's Anglo-Afghan military comparison. Although after 40 years, Britain had no new means of intervention, and Argentina had no better means of confrontation – the Argentine navy was still backward, with only 30 ships of various types, and the vast majority of them were patrol ships or older than 30 years old.
One of the two Type 42 ships, the Hercules, is still in service with the Argentine Navy, but part of the armament was removed and transferred to amphibious forces and the hull number was changed from D1 to B52
There has been no essential change on the British side compared to 40 years ago. It is still a double aircraft carrier formation, and it is still a combination of ski-jump aircraft carriers and vertical take-off and landing aircraft. However, the aircraft carrier is larger, jumping from 20,000 tons to 70,000 tons; the carrier-based aircraft has changed from the "Harrier" type to the F-35B, and the performance has been improved across generations, of course, the performance reduction still exists; the "Crow's Nest" early warning aircraft has been equipped to make up for the lack of air early warning platforms in the Falklands War, but the early warning helicopters are far from the fixed-wing early warning aircraft in terms of flight altitude, speed and time in space. Early warning helicopters only solve the problem of shipborne airborne early warning, and it is difficult to say how much it can be improved compared with the shipborne early warning system. Overall, the British fleet's defensive capabilities have improved, but there has not been much of a leap forward, and the air-based anti-ship force penetration is still likely to succeed.
In contrast, the Argentine Air Force and naval aviation have undergone "qualitative" changes, but unfortunately they are all negative changes. Because of the perennial economic downturn in Argentina, the aviation force is also increasingly depleted. The "Super Flag" and the A-4 attack aircraft that made great contributions to the Falklands War have not yet waited for their successors, and as a result, 23 A-4AR "Combat Skyhawks" have supported Argentina's two major air-to-ground burdens.
However, in 2016, when the Argentine defense minister revealed that the A-4AR has been completely grounded, and some of these "Skyhawks" have a lifespan of 50 years, there are various problems, and the actual utilization rate is difficult to say. The 22 IA-58 propeller attack aircraft still in service, 24 of which were deployed to the Falklands during the Falklands War, were not successful and were defeated by the British, and it is difficult to expect them to play a greater role today. As for the "super military flag" that shined that year, in 2019, France delivered 5 second-hand "super flags" to Argentina, so that Argentina may now have 7 "super flags" available. It seems that this battlefield veteran will have to wear armor for a long time.
On the whole, Argentina's desire to take the Falklands today will not be as easy as it was then. In 1982, there were only more than a hundred British Marines on the Falklands, and it was impossible to organize a decent defense, and the Arab landings could be unimpeded. At present, there are 4 Typhoon fighters deployed on the Falklands for a long time, and in the face of the Seriously Degraded Argentine Aviation, it is completely possible to take air supremacy and pose a threat to the landing forces.
The Dragon Fighter could deter Britain, but the Dragon alone was not enough
Some people on the Internet pinned their hopes for Argentina's reversal on the "Dragon Fighter", because the news that Argentina was ready to introduce the Dragon Fighter has been spread for a long time. Judging from the information currently circulating, Argentina is likely to introduce 12 "Dragon Dragon" Block3s. Objectively speaking, the "Dragon Dragon" is a very suitable choice for Argentina, the "Dragon Dragon" can be mounted C-802AK anti-ship missiles and CM-400AKG supersonic anti-ship missiles, with strong anti-ship capabilities. At the same time, the "Dragon Dragon" Block3 fighter has replaced the traditional aircraft sweep radar with an active phased array radar, which has greatly improved the level of informatization, and the ability to face the "Typhoon" space-time warfare will not necessarily fall behind. More importantly, as a light fighter, the "Dragon" is more cost-effective and Argentina can afford it.
However, in the face of the British double aircraft carrier formation, the "Dragon Fighter" fighter is still too thin. Argentina lacks reconnaissance satellites or early warning aircraft to find the location of the British fleet, and the combat radius of the British aircraft carrier has long been increased from less than 400 kilometers in the "Sea Harrier" era to 900 kilometers of the F-35B, which greatly increases the difficulty of search. The Dragon's fuselage fuel factor and combat radius (even less than the F-35B's) may not be able to meet this level of combat.
Secondly, the anti-ship capability of the "Dragon" is also somewhat insufficient, the C-802AG is a traditional subsonic anti-ship missile, using the old base of the Eagle Strike-82, which is somewhat difficult to face modern anti-missile means. The CM-400AKG differs from the common supersonic anti-ship missile in that it weighs only 900 kilograms, of which 200 kilograms are warheads, making it the lightest supersonic missile. Although this allows a "dragon" to carry two supersonic missiles, but there are some sacrifices in the ability to destroy, in order to ensure that the enemy aircraft carrier loses its combat effectiveness, it needs to hit three or four rounds at the same time, so this requires multiple salvos to launch saturation strikes.
The Dragon carries the CM-400AKG supersonic anti-ship missile
At present, under the fragmented operational configuration of Argentina, the short-legged "dragon" may be difficult to meet the needs of large-scale search and sea control tasks. Of course, its anti-ship capability is ultimately a deterrent that the British dare not act rashly. But if Argentina aims to "retake the Falklands", it is naturally not enough to rely on the "dragon".
Summary: With the current situation of the Argentine army, even the introduction of the "Dragon" is not enough to take the Falklands. To some extent, Argentina can consider establishing a complete early warning system and developing anti-ship capabilities that are not limited to the air force, which may be Argentina's only hope for retaking the Falklands, of course, all based on strong national support. In the case of Argentina's economic collapse and no signs of improvement, the long-cherished wish to recover the Falklands may only fade.