Wen | Cheng Jing Edited by | Qi Fei
Marakanang Palace, the presidential palace in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, has long been the target of fierce competition in the general election. Hundreds of kilometres away in Ilocos del Norte province, there is another "Mara Kannan Palace of the North" – a "palace" built by the Philippine Department of Tourism in 1977 for then-President Ferdinand Marcos. During Marcos's reign, his family often lived here.
Years later, at the urging of Marcos's daughter, Amy Marcos, then governor of Ilocos Dole Norte Province, the two-story building was converted into the President Marcos Memorial and became one of the province's most famous tourist attractions.
Marcos's former supporters came here to take selfies in front of lavish portraits of the former president and his wife and visit the rooms where they lived. Their son Ferdinand Marcos The Younger (i.e. Marcos The Younger) also lived here in his youth, and a portrait hangs in his room. Wearing a golden crown, he rides a white horse through the clouds, holding a Bible in one hand and the Philippine flag in the other.
Portrait of Little Marcos in the North Malakannan Palace.
Now the young man in the painting replaces his father and is about to enter the highest political arena in the Philippines. Statistics released by Philippine media at 2 a.m. on May 10 show that of the 92% of the votes that have been counted, Marcos Jr. received 57.04% of the votes, more than twice that of his main rival and current vice president Leni Robredo, and achieved an overwhelming advantage.
A polling station in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, on May 9.
The confrontation between Marcos Jr. and Robredo symbolizes more than 40 years of political antagonism in the Philippines. Due to the superposition of factors such as class, experience, generation and information asymmetry, Filipino voters' perceptions of the two candidates are also polarized. Analysts fear that whoever wins, the Philippines is likely to tear it apart further.
Vigorously promote the "golden age" of his father's rule
Nine years after the palace was built, the Marcos regime was overthrown in the 1986 Popular Power Revolution, and the family was forced into exile in Hawaii. Three years later, at the age of 32, Marcos Jr. witnessed his father's death in exile. The Philippine president at the time, Mrs. Aquino, allowed the rest of the Marcos family to return home to stand trial. Marcos Jr. returned to the Philippines in 1991 and was one of the first in the family to return home.
As early as 1981, Marcos Jr. was elected vice governor in his home province of Ilocos Dorinta, entering politics for the first time. Upon his return to his homeland, he continued to expand his political career while facing corruption lawsuits and trials. For more than two decades, he served as governor, congressman and senator of Ilocos Do norte until he lost to Leni Robredo in the vice presidency in 2016 – the most recent and second most important meeting between the two after this election.
Ilocos Dole Norte is the home of the Marcos family.
His father was undoubtedly the most controversial figure in the history of the Republic of the Philippines. Marcos served as president for 20 years from the 1960s to the 1980s, but under the constitution implemented in 1935, the President of the Philippines was legally entitled to only two four-year terms. After becoming president in 1965, Marcos made his first-ever appointment as defense minister, putting himself in direct charge of the military and increasing the budget of the armed forces, a move that his political enemy, then Senator Aquino, called "the establishment of a garrison state."
Former President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos.
In addition to reorganizing the army and police, Marcos stepped up taxation and built roads, schools and other public works on a large scale after taking office, but because the tax could not support his infrastructure ambitions, the Marcos government was saddled with a huge amount of foreign debt by receiving a large number of foreign loans.
He came to power for advocating economic and social reforms, but during his tenure he practiced crony capitalism and amassed wealth in infrastructure activities through businesses owned by family members. During his second term of office, due to serious corruption, the widening gap between the rich and the poor, ethnic and religious contradictions and the communist movement, social unrest in the Philippines intensified, and small-scale armed conflicts occurred in many places.
Marcos is best known for his 14-year martial law rule. Barring him from participating in the 1973 elections, Marcos imposed martial law in 1972, dissolving Parliament and passing military power to suppress opponents and martial law violators. According to human rights groups, 70,000 people were imprisoned, 35,000 tortured, more than 3,200 extrajudicially executed, and hundreds more missing in the Philippines during martial law.
In 1972, then-President Marcos newspaper the day he declared martial law.
In this context, the Philippines grew by only 3.4 percent in gross domestic product (GDP) in the 1970s, lagging behind the average growth rates of 5.4 percent in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia.
The economic downturn has forced a large number of Filipinos to go abroad to earn a living. Mario, a resident of Manila, told Phoenix Weekly that his father was one of the first Filipinos to go abroad to work in the 1970s. Mario's father, who had a bachelor's degree in business, went to work as a clerk in a company in a middle Eastern country. He said similar jobs could be found in the Philippines, but the income was completely unable to support the family.
Since the 1970s, a large number of Filipinos have begun to go abroad in search of job opportunities.
During the dictatorship, the Marcos family's wealth was even more staggering. After the 1986 People's Power Revolution, protesters broke into the presidential palace after their escape and found that First Lady Imelda had left 15 mink coats, 508 dresses, 888 handbags and about 3,000 pairs of shoes in her closet. At the time, one-third of the Philippine population lived on just $1 a day.
The "People Power Revolution" of 1986
In the memory of many, "3,000 pairs of shoes" is a symbol of the Marcos' extravagance. In 1986, then-President Mrs. Aquino established the Presidential Council for Good Governance, which was intended to track down malfeasance and corruption during the president's tenure. The commission's 2020 report noted that as of that year, about $3.4 billion of illegal wealth had been recovered from the Marcos family and their cronies, and another $1.3 billion was still "in litigation." The government estimates that the Marcos family amassed wealth of $5 billion to $10 billion.
Imelda's shoe collection.
But today, the Marcos campaign's social media ads depict his father's reign as a "golden age of peace and prosperity."
Jan, a Filipino born in the 1970s, has a direct understanding of life under martial law. Jane is from Negros Island in central Philippines and is one of the country's major sugar producers. Sugarcane farmers on Negros island are employed by the owner of the estate, have no land of their own, and often cannot afford to eat because of their meager income.
In 1985, the "Escalant Massacre" took place here, and more than 20 people died in military repression as local farmers gathered against Marcos's land policy. Jane told Phoenix Weekly that she used to cook porridge with her mother as a child and distribute it to farmers who couldn't afford to eat. So it was hard for her to accept Marcos's propaganda about the "Golden Age".
A protest during martial law in the Philippines.
But there are still many people who miss Marcos's time. Leah, a Filipino living in Shanghai, told Phoenix Weekly that her mother was one of them. "They thought Marcos had both good and bad: the Philippines had gone from a poor country to what we see today, and Marcos had a lot of credit for the country's economic development and infrastructure development; martial law was a decision that had to be taken under the social unrest of the time."
Such an explanation puzzled Leah. She believes that whatever Marcos's level of governance is, it belongs to the past of the former president, and Marcos Jr. has been in politics so far lackluster, "some of Marcos's supporters discuss him as if his father is still alive."
Ella Mae Alipao, a 15-year-old Filipino girl, said she got most of her information about Marcos from TikTok and Facebook, and that she "didn't trust books very much." Ella believes that it wasn't until Marcos was ousted that the Filipino people discovered how good the old president was, "when people realized that he should be in power longer."
Marcos Jr. made similar remarks. In an April 26 interview with CNN Philippines, Marcos called his father a "political genius," and on the issues of his father's time in power, he said, "Historical issues should be left to the professor."
"Layout for 6 years, very well controlled cyberspace"
The Philippine Constitution stipulates that the president cannot be re-elected for a term of six years. The term of the current President Duterte will end on June 30 this year, and the new Philippine government will take office on the same day.
Although there were 10 candidates in the May 9 general election, in the previous polls, Marcos Jr. has been leading and has a clear advantage. Britain's The Economist described that unless there is an earth-shattering accident or an unprecedented poll error, Marcos Jr. will win the election by an overwhelming margin.
Through social media, Marcos Jr. gained a large number of supporters. His VLOG channel on the video site is named after his nickname "Bonbon Marcos" and currently has 2.27 million subscribers. His videos include not only campaign ideas, rally scenes, and COVID-19 guidelines, but also daily life records such as playing guitar, playing mobile games, and traveling to dinners.
Jesús Bautista, a 71-year-old citizen of Manila, is a supporter of Marcos Jr.
Perhaps to bring young voters closer together and show the image of a loving father, he and his son recorded a dialogue with the theme of "I never asked my father's questions", which was viewed more than 880,000 times, more than the 840,000 times of his "Answer voters' questions" video with his campaign partner.
This is inextricably linked to filipinos as the world's number one social media heavy users. According to a 2021 report by a digital marketing company, more than 80 percent of the Philippines' 110 million people are social media users; the country's Internet users spend the most time on social media in the world, with an average of 4 hours and 15 minutes per person per day.
Since announcing his candidacy last October, Marcos has posted more than 60 videos on the VLOG channel. But critics point out that he has consistently lacked a detailed governance program and that his statements are mostly slogans. Jane was impressed by Marcos Jr.'s reference that "unity has brought the Philippines back to power," but she didn't see Marcos announce any actual plans.
Others have accused Marcos Jr. of his campaign propaganda tactics of "whitewashing history" and "false propaganda." A video of TikTok's conversation with Marcos-era attorney general Juan Enrile said martial law philippines were so safe that residents could "stay closed at night" because no one dared to commit theft; another widely circulated claim was that Marcos's wealth "did not come from stealing from the treasury," but from gold paid by his clients during his time as a lawyer.
A video of a conversation recorded by Marcos Jr. with his son.
Sources from opponents said Marcos Jr.'s team deployed water troops on the network, creating an atmosphere in which he was deeply supported by voters. Cleve Arguelles, assistant lecturer in political science at De La Salle University in the Philippines, said: "It is difficult for other candidates to compete online with Marcos's propaganda machine because he has been laying out for more than 6 years. ”
Investigative reports by Philippine online media Rappler show that Marcos Jr. is reaping the fruits of its social media layout. According to local prist firm Agents International, some content creators earn $4,700 a month, which is a lot of money for Filipinos who earn as little as $170 a month. But Marcos Jr. denied using the Water Army in an interview in late April to build momentum for himself.
In this regard, Dai Fan, director of the Center for Philippine Studies at Jinan University, explained to Phoenix Weekly, "Because the older generation of intellectuals and elites were harmed during the martial law reign of Marcos, there is indeed prejudice against the Marcos family." But because the Philippine media is mostly controlled by traditional elites, some of whom take a pro-American stance, they often exaggerate the role of social media in elections. ”
He believes that social media and institutional media present very different public opinions because different classes and age groups of voters are speaking differently.
It is reported that the Philippine polls usually divide voters into A, B, C, D, E and other five classes according to income, of which the middle and high income classes represented by A, B and C account for only about 10% in the Philippines, which means that 90% are lower middle income classes, and the latter supports The proportion of Marcos Jr. is more than 50%. "Marcos Jr. has a structural advantage in the ballot, which is not enough to explain it by 'historical revisionism' [in the media's mouth.'" Dai Fan said.
Supporter of Marcos Jr.
The Philippines has the youngest demographic in Asia, and half of them are now under the age of 8 when Marcos stepped down in 1986. Alfred W. McCoy, an American historian who has published several books on Southeast Asian politics, said, "Most Filipinos alive today do not remember the pain of the nation's economic collapse in the last years of Marcos' administration." Troubled people often romanticize the rule of dictators and instead reminisce about the good old days. ”
Marcos's dictatorship undoubtedly left a deep imprint on the hearts of the older generation of Filipinos, and in the eyes of some, although the Philippines at that time was corrupt, the society maintained social progress and economic development; after Marcos stepped down, corruption continued, but social development became slow.
Dai Fan also mentioned that among the younger group, the highly educated tend to oppose The Little Marcos, and the rest of the young voters "either know less about history or have their own independent judgments."
In addition, Filipinos have always admired charismatic political strongmen, and if other candidates do not stand out, it is difficult to win the favor of the majority of voters. Leah also admitted that her mother chose Marcos Jr. more because she felt that Robredo was "not the material for being president."
Robredo, the Philippine presidential election candidate.
It should not be overlooked that Sarah Duterte, Jr. Marcos' running mate and daughter of current President Duterte, has helped him a lot. Sarah has served one term and three terms as deputy mayor of Davao City, Mindanao, her family home base, and duterte's 28 years as mayor, the father and daughter have been working in the local area for more than 30 years.
Vice presidential candidate Sarah Duterte.
Dai Fan explained that the Marcos family owns the ticket warehouse in the northern Philippines, and the Duterte family is strong in the south. "In the Philippines, many ordinary people may not necessarily read newspapers or study the candidate's platform, but may choose a familiar political family; in some rural areas, one vote can be exchanged for the benefit of local forces, so voters are likely to follow the call of the local governor to vote."
But until Election Day, Duterte did not publicly endorse Marcos Jr., and he also made himself "neutral" in private meetings, a rarity in previous elections. Analysts say that's because Duterte can't accept Sarah running for vice president as a marginal role, and he's been hoping his daughter can run for president to protect himself from the ICC's investigation into "crimes against humanity" into the Philippines' drug campaign.
There is also the view that Sarah is unlikely to be satisfied with the role of "spare tire" after becoming vice president, and she is likely to ask for a concurrent ministerial position to pave the way for the presidential election in six years.
The opponent failed to become the second Lady Aquino
On the morning of May 7, two days before Election Day, thousands of Robredo supporters gathered on Manila's bustling Ayala Avenue in Makati to make the final effort. Some wore pink T-shirts, pink masks, pink shopping bags, and pink towels, fans and umbrellas.
In October 2021, Robredo gave up his liberal party membership when he ran as an independent candidate, and also jumped out of the "red, yellow and blue" framework of the traditional electoral politics of the Philippines. Yellow is the representative color of the Liberal Party; red symbolizes nationalism and is the color of Marcos Jr.'s campaign this time; and former President Arroyo often wears blue.
According to Pinky Nepomuceno, a staff member of Robredo's campaign, on the day Robredo announced his candidacy as the only female candidate, supporters posted a flood of photos with pink elements online because "pink represents women." Robredo made pink the campaign's signature color, calling it "an answer to the people's demands." Her supporters are also known as the Pink Allies.
Born into a family of judges in Naga, the capital of Southern Gammaline Province in central Philippines, Leni Robredo, 57, Chinese Lin Lini, holds a bachelor's degree in economics and law and worked as an economic researcher and pro bono lawyer before entering politics.
Leni Robredo (front row center).
In 1986, at the age of 21, she joined the Office of the Bicol Basin Development Project in her hometown. There, she met her future husband, Jesse Robredo (Chinese lin bingzhi, whose ancestral home was Jinjiang, Fujian, China). In February of the same year, the People Power Revolution, a movement of more than 2 million people, overthrew Marcos's 20-year dictatorship.
The first meeting between the two is difficult to describe romantically, but Robredo later recalled that she found Jesse "on the same frequency as her" — they both longed for the meaning of life, wanted to serve the country, and the love of the time also stemmed from the aftermath of people's desire for change after political turmoil.
Mr. and Mrs. Robredo.
After the two married, Jesse became mayor of Naga in 1988, and Robredo founded an organization that provided training and livelihood opportunities for women. She said in interviews that she hopes to promote women's empowerment to help women become more financially independent, benefiting women who have been abused at home and are unable to leave their partners.
At the age of 32, Robredo passed the bar exam before joining the district attorney's office. Since 1998, she has been working as a coordinator for a legal aid organization based in Quezon City that aims to bring legal services to marginalized groups such as women, farmers, workers, the urban poor, indigenous peoples and more.
But whether working on legal aid or women's empowerment, Robredo is a low-key "politician's wife." Jesse served as mayor for 19 years, of which only 3 were absent. Under Jesse's rule, Naga was praised by Hong Kong's Asia Weekly as one of Asia's "fastest-improving" cities, and in 2010 he was appointed Home Minister by then-President Benigno Aquino III.
Soon after, however, the couple suffered a turnaround. In August 2012, Jesse, who had held a cabinet position for just two years, died in an air crash. His supporters therefore called on Robredo to enter politics. In 2013, Robredo was appointed chairman of the Liberal Party's Nammaline constituency and elected to the House of Representatives in the same year. During her time in Congress, her main concerns were people's political empowerment, open government information, anti-discrimination, and so on.
In April, Leni Robredo supporters at a campaign rally.
Most of Robredo's political assets in the early years of his political career came from his husband, and Jesse's family did not have many ancestral roots in politics. For many Filipinos, Robredo's presence has blown a "new wind" into countries mired in the cycle of political dynasties. Both she and her husband appeared in public in fairly modest form: Jesse often wore a pair of slippers when he met voters during his lifetime, and Robredo was photographed waiting for the night bus after work when he was a member of the House of Representatives.
Robredo's political participation began during the period of the anti-Marcos dictatorship, and nearly 30 years after the end of that vigorous revolution, she began her first head-to-head confrontation with Marcos's son.
In October 2015, Robredo announced his candidacy for vice president as a running mate for Liberal candidate Mar Roxas, and the following year he narrowly defeated Marcos Jr. by 0.64 percent and was elected. After being sworn in, she was also appointed by Duterte as a cabinet member in charge of housing and urban development.
After becoming Vice President, Robredo set up a poverty alleviation project called Anga Buhay (meaning "improving the quality of life"), which covers areas such as public education, rural development, food security and nutrition, women's empowerment, universal health care and housing, as well as raising funds for disaster relief in the aftermath of natural disasters and outbreaks.
But due to insufficient funding in the vice president's office, Robredo had to raise additional funds to move the project forward. In September 2021, Duterte's approved 2022 budget fell 21 percent year-over-year, and she acknowledged that she was unable to support some local governments when she received a lack of funds. But Robredo insisted that "this situation has been accustomed since 2016 and limited funding will not be an obstacle to public services." ”
After the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, Leah, who was overseas, donated money to her hometown through Anga Buhay's epidemic assistance program. She told Phoenix Weekly that she was impressed by the donation: After her inquiry email was sent, the team quickly replied, informing her that "the fundraising goal has been achieved, but if you still want to donate, we can receive it." Leah laughed and said, "If you change a politician, you will definitely collect the money without saying a word." ”
After the donation, Leah received a number of emails announcing the details of the donation, and her social media homepage was updated in real time. She pointed out that during the epidemic, the Vice President's Office has provided epidemic prevention supplies, arranged temporary shelter, transportation and food for frontline anti-epidemic medical workers, and provided testing points for the public, which are obvious to all.
She also mentioned that Angat Buhay has long received help from ordinary citizens, including ordinary citizens, and even some things as detailed as "please help my father", and most of the helpers can get a timely response. She speculates that the vice president has a dedicated team running and docking these requests.
Jane also said Robredo was the "most functional" vice president she had ever seen. She joked that the Philippine vice president is usually just an alternate figure for the president, whose main function is to "cut the ribbon on major occasions and unveil the curtain." "Some people accuse Robredo of not doing much on big projects like infrastructure, which is unfair in itself — it's not the vice president's job, she's done enough!"
Since Robredo's 2015 candidacy for vice president, some have compared her to Mrs. Aquino, the first female president of the Philippines: both are women, their husbands are in politics, their political opponents are from the Marcos family, and they have also experienced the pain of widowhood.
Mrs. Aquino, former President of the Philippines.
Mrs. Aquino's husband, Benigueno Aquino, was arrested and imprisoned during martial law and was granted medical parole and exiled to the United States. In 1983, Aquino re-established opposition to the Marcos dictatorship in the United States and was allowed to return to his home country the same year, but was assassinated while disembarking from the plane in Manila.
It was Aquino's assassination that ignited the social movement against Marcos in the country. Marcos was forced to weaken the military and announced in 1985 that he would reconvene the following year. In 1986, Mrs. Aquino ran for president. But after the election, both sides claimed to have been elected. In protest against Marcos' electoral fraud, 1 million Filipinos took to the streets and surrounded the presidential palace, followed by the defection of the armed forces and the announcement of the resignation of senior government officials. Knowing that the tide was turning, Marcos went into exile in Hawaii with the help of the U.S. Embassy, and his 20-year reign came to an end.
However, Robredo was not able to become the second Lady Aquino. Dai Fan believes that although Robredo has the support of the church, intellectuals and elites, he is still essentially a political elite without a family background, which means that she cannot obtain a large number of votes from local powerful mobilizations, "she is facing the two major political families of Marcos and Duterte, and the chances of winning are very small in the case of a large number of local governors announcing their support for Marcos."
In contrast to Mrs. Aquino's unanimous recommendation from the opposition when she ran in 1986, Robredo's refusal to call on other candidates to abandon and join her in the final stages of the election shows that her efforts to integrate the opposition have failed and her political prestige is far from reaching Mrs. Aquino's height.
But in the absence of joint endorsements from political families and opposition, Robredo has the support of hundreds of grassroots volunteer teams across the country.
JP Loch, a programmer living in Laguna province, joined one of the volunteer teams. He told Phoenix Weekly that the vice president's performance during the pandemic won his favor, and in March he joined the team at the invitation of a friend to develop a mobile word guessing game based on Robredo's campaign platform. Roch said there were volunteers on the team who were in charge of contacting robredo's campaign to get authorization and follow up information, but the connection was loose.
Roche has been at two campaign rallies in support of Robredo, attended by many highly educated young people like him, and the atmosphere of "like-mindedness" reassures him. At each rally, he said, participants take care of each other, volunteers coordinate services, and carpool pick-ups for inaccessible voters, "Volunteers pay time, money and resources, and these moves are really contagious and make me often feel like I'm doing too little." ”
Robredo and Duterte.
Jane believes that Robredo is more like a practical civil servant than a politician. Multiple voters, including her, told Phoenix Weekly that unlike traditional politicians who carry a lot of lawsuits, Robredo has no case and no corruption record, and has a clear stand against corruption.
But Dai Fan believes that in the context of many Filipinos, after the overthrow of the Marcos regime and the democratization of the country, the country's corruption problem is still deeply rooted, so many people no longer have hope for anti-corruption, "they are concerned about whether economic development can benefit ordinary people more."
There has also been criticism that Robredo represents the Philippines' "elite oligarchy." As a former colony of Spain and the United States, much of the country's land, agriculture, and utilities remained in the hands of a small number of political families who benefited greatly from their close ties to the imperial powers. Robredo represented the Liberal Party in 2016 with close ties to the ruling family, but in this election, because the party could not coordinate the final candidate, she left the party at the last minute and ran as an independent.
Due to the closure of the epidemic, Jane, who lives in Shanghai, was unable to go to the Philippine consulate in Shanghai to vote on May 9. Until the last minute, she prayed that something miraculous would happen, "Philippine presidential elections are usually 'to pick someone who is not so bad,' so I didn't care about the last few general elections." Robredo's appearance makes this election special." Unfortunately, the final result disappointed her.
There is a high probability of continuing Duterte's China policy
Whether it's the "revival" of the Marcos dynasty or the "Pink Revolution" of Robredo, the choices of 65 million Filipino voters are not only about their own country, but also have far more impact than the islands' border with the sea.
It is worth noting that the Philippines under Marcos was one of the first U.S. Asian allies to open up channels of communication and establish bilateral relations with China in the 1970s. In this election, Marcos Jr. is also the only popular candidate who openly supports the state's "maintenance of continuity of China policy". He has stressed that "confrontation is futile" and that economic cooperation with China is valuable.
Marcos Jr. also actively maintained rapport with Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian. In October 2021, shortly after announcing his candidacy for president, Marcos Jr. participated in a photo wall ribbon-cutting event at the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines, at which Huang Xilian called it "an honor" to meet Marcos and those who supported China-Philippines relations, and said that "we will start a better future together."
In October 2021, Marcos Jr. met with Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian.
Some scholars have pointed out that the extent to which Marcos Will replicate Duterte's pro-China policy is unclear, but there are indications that on the South China Sea issue, Marcos Jr. will have a similar attitude to Duterte.
Two months ago, Marcos Jr. publicly commented on Duterte's remarks on the South China Sea. He took a similar position with the president that the Philippines could not afford to go to war with the "Giants of Asia."
Fast back in 2016, after Duterte was elected president, he changed the "one-sided pro-American" line of his predecessor, Aquino III, and shouted that the Philippines should implement "independent diplomacy." In July of the same year, the Hague Ad Hoc Arbitral Tribunal rendered an award in favour of the Philippines. But Duterte decided to shelve the ruling and the South China Sea dispute. In August, Duterte made his first visit to China after the South China Sea arbitration, and at a business forum held in the Great Hall of the People, he made a high-profile announcement that "the United States has lost power" and "parted ways with the United States."
In October 2016, Duterte visited China and was greeted at the airport by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Zhao Jianhua.
Although the Philippines has not really severed its security and economic relations with the United States since then, Duterte's five visits to China during his term of office have shown their sincerity in advancing relations with China; in contrast, the United States has invited Duterte to visit the United States many times during the Trump administration, but has been repeatedly postponed.
In his 2017 State of the Union address, Duterte thanked China for helping the Philippines with infrastructure construction, saying that Philippine-China relations have eased and that the Filipino people can expect the two countries to jointly conduct oil exploration activities in the South China Sea.
In a 2020 commentary, the Asia Times said duterte was able to turn around in the Philippines-China relationship because on the one hand, he may think that China has dominated Asia militarily and economically; on the other hand, he believes that the situation at that time needs to be cleverly hedged until a more mature time to solve the problem in a peaceful and mutually beneficial way.
For marcos Jr. today, there is no circumvention between him and the United States. It has previously been reported that Marcos Jr. was arrested once he arrived in the United States because he faced huge claims for his father's martial law abuses case, as well as a contempt of court conviction related to his estate.
But analysts point out that if Marcos Jr. is successfully elected president of the Philippines, he can hold a diplomatic passport and enjoy immunity to address the U.N. General Assembly as head of state; while the United States, as host country of the United Nations, must fulfill its basic obligations to the United Nations.
Asked in March how he would handle relations with the United States and China, Marcos Jr. said the Philippines would be friends with both countries. He said it was time to abandon the "Cold War mentality" and that any alliance would have to consider its interests for the Filipino people.
Dai Fan analyzed to the "Phoenix Weekly" that Marcos Jr. will most likely continue Duterte's China policy, adopt a relatively moderate stance on the South China Sea issue, and continue to determine that the South China Sea arbitration is invalid; will develop friendly relations with China and strengthen Philippine-Chinese cooperation; maintain a balance between China and the United States, and refuse the United States to intervene in the South China Sea issue.
Richard Heydarian, a professor of political science at the Philippine Institute of Technology, said in an interview with the US media that the Philippine public today wants to see a more pragmatic and determined china line than during Duterte's administration, which may limit Marcos's friendly tendencies toward China; but even Robredo is unlikely to adopt a confrontational policy toward China. "Because the reality is that most Filipinos, even the military, recognize the Philippines' limitations in confronting China ... Many have also expressed a willingness to support economic ties with China. ”
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