The Warriors and Grizzlies' series G4 will begin tomorrow at 10 a.m. at the Warriors' home court, and the Warriors are currently leading by a big 2-1 lead. The series was intense, with people being expelled in each game, G1 being a Green Ii foul, G2 being a Dillon Level 2 foul, and G3 being expelled for two technical fouls in a row. Because of Morant's injury, these two days the media frequently hyped, this game has not yet started, the heat is already very high, then G4 who can win?
G4 Warriors side Payton Jr. and Iguodala are absent, Porter is injured but he should bring injuries to the court, Grizzlies side of Dillon released from the ban to return, Morante does not know whether he can play. The Grizzlies have won 20 of morant's 25 games in the regular season, which means that the No Morant is even better. But the playoffs are a time to fight superpowers, and Morant's absence is bound to bring great losses to the Grizzlies.
In order to better predict the outcome of the G4, let's first briefly review the G3. Let's take a look at the technical statistics of both G3 sides:
The Warriors rebounded 38 times (including 4 rebounds in the frontcourt), assisted 34 times, shot 53 of 84 from the field, shooting 631%, shooting 17 of 32 from three-point range, shooting 53.1% from three-point range, shooting 90.5% from 19 of 21 free throws, 5 steals, 17 turnovers, 4 blocks, and 24 fouls.
The Grizzlies rebounded 29 times (including 7 rebounds in the frontcourt), assisted 21 times, shot 40 of 92 from the field, shooting 43.5 percent, shooting 43 of 16 three-pointers from three-point range, shooting 37.2 percent from three-point range, shooting 76.2 percent from 21 free throws, shooting 76.2 percent from the free throws, making eight steals, making 10 turnovers, blocking three times, and committing 20 fouls.
The G3 Warriors won 30 points, just as the so-called smooth and smooth, the Warriors in this game in rebounding, assists, shooting rate and most of the data ahead of the Grizzlies, especially in assists and shooting rates. It should be said that the Grizzlies' 43.5% shooting rate is also quite good, but the Warriors' 63% shooting rate is really outrageous.
Before G3 started, I looked ahead to the Warriors' way to win, listing four, which were to make adjustments to the starting lineup, Klay had to play, wiggins to reduce outside shots, and limit Morant.
In G3, Cole put Cumminga in the starting lineup, which was not what I expected, I thought Cole would let Poole or Looney start, either offensively or defensively. However, Cuminga's starting effect was very poor, and the Warriors quickly fell into passivity in the opening game, not only unable to shoot themselves, but also allowing the Grizzlies to shoot 6 three-pointers in a row, and the team also fell behind by a large score. Cuminga is also the only G3 Warriors starter with a negative plus-minus.
Clay performed well in G3, shooting 8-of-13 from the field, including 21 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists on 4-of-6 three-point range, while in the first two games Clay shot 6-of-19 and 5-of-19, Clay reduced his three-point shots and played more passes, and the shooting percentage naturally came up.
Wiggins only had two three-point shots in G3 and hit them all. Wiggins had 17 points and three rebounds on 7-of-10 shooting in the first two games, and Wiggins' shooting was 6-of-14 (1-of-5 from three) and 6-of-16 (1-of-7 from three-point range) in the first two games, which can be seen that Wiggins significantly reduced his shots outside the three-point line, which is consistent with the G3 Warriors' team-wide strategy. It should be said that the Warriors in the confrontation with the Grizzlies, Wiggins is one of the few points that can have a height advantage, he must be closer to the basket, in order to play aggressive, in order to compress the Grizzlies' defense to open up space for outside shooters.
The G3 Warriors' restrictions on Morant remain unsuccessful. Morant shot 13-of-31 from the field in 36 minutes, including 4-of-7 three-pointers for 34 points, three rebounds and seven assists; G1 played 38 minutes and 31 shots for 14 of 31, including 4-of-11 three-pointers for 34 points, 9 rebounds and 10 assists; G2 played 41 minutes and 15-of-31, including 5-of-12 three-pointers for 47 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. From these three games, Morant's play is very stable, G3 Morante's early departure time due to injury is reduced, but he is already a big score behind the Grizzlies when he leaves the game, that is, he does not go down because of injury, and it is time to play. However, although his playing time has decreased in this game, his shooting percentage has been greatly improved, which means that he has played more efficiently.
G3 Kerr started with Cuminga, but did not use him to defend Morant, but used Wiggins to defend, it should be said that the effect is still not good, I understand that Wiggins is relatively tall, in terms of flexibility can not keep up with Morant, I wonder why Kerr is not willing to use Anderson to try it?
Combined with G3, I think the Warriors need to do the following in order to win in G4:
The same involves the issue of starting out. G3 with Cumminga started the effect is obviously not good, is expected Kerr will make adjustments, in addition to Curry, Clay, Green, Wiggins, who will be put on the starting line-up? From the G3 line of thinking, I think Kerr still wants a person who can defend and has a strong impact on athletic ability, so that Poole and Looney should not start, is it possible that Anderson? Of course, it is also possible to continue to make Cuminga start.
Three shots must have two people play normally. G3 Clay 4 of 6 three-pointers, Poole 3 of 5 three-pointers, Curry three-pointers are 8 of 2, which means that in addition to Curry, two of the three Muskets are more accurate. The same is true in G4, where at least two of the three have a reliable three-point shooting percentage to win. In fact, the main thing is to reduce some unreasonable three-point shots, the shooting rate will naturally come up, G3 In addition to Curry's occasional forced three-point shooting, Klay and Poole, Wiggins, Porter's three-point shots are basically empty positions.
Reducing three-point shots increases the pass cut under the basket. G3 Warriors 84 shots across the team, including 32 three-point shots, accounting for 38%, G1 and G2 these two data are 41% and 40%, respectively, it can be seen that the Warriors' three-point shot proportion is gradually declining. Everyone knows that the Warriors are best at three-point shooting, and it takes a lot of courage to give up one of their best martial arts in the game, but the Warriors did it. They reduced their three-point shots, increased a lot of passing, and a lot of tactics were dazzling, making the Grizzlies tired of coping, letting the shooting opportunities appear more under the basket, so that the shooting rate was guaranteed, that is, not to score, and the rebounding was also dominant.
Morant needs to be restricted again. Although Morant's appearance is not clear at the moment, he knows the importance of G4, and I think unless Morant's injury is particularly serious, he will most likely appear on the court, which comes to the topic of defending Morant. In the Timberwolves' first six games, Morant averaged 21.5 points, 8.7 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game, and the Warriors averaged 38.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists in the first three games of the second round.
The Warriors do not lack the tip of the single defense, there is also an overall defensive system, it should be said that the Warriors' defense is higher than the Timberwolves, and the reason why Morant scored high I think is Kerr's intention. The Warriors basically didn't have Morant in their pockets, and Kerr thought he'd rather be killed by Morant alone (e.g., Morant scored 15 points in the final moments of G2) rather than let shooters like Dillon and Bain drive. G1 Dillon and Bain shot a combined 6-of-23; G2 Bain was 2-of-7, Dillon played just 3 minutes, replacing his sledgehammer and Jones combined for 3-of-14; G3 Bain opened the game with 4-of-7 three-pointers, but Williams, who replaced Dillon, was 1-of-5 on three-pointers and 1-of-8 from Melton's three-pointers.
It can be seen that the Warriors' strategy of defending Morant is very clear, that is, not to pack the clip, take a step when holding the ball outside the three-point line, and allow Morant to shoot three points, which greatly reduces the power of Morant's breakthrough, except for the final key moment, the rest of the time allows Morant to score, and the rest of the Grizzlies shooters are not spared. Such a defense is basically a bet on Morant's three-point inaccuracy, of course, Morant's three-point is indeed worse. If G4 Morant doesn't play, the Warriors' defense will be easier to handle. With the exception of Morant, the Grizzlies don't have any points with particularly good individual abilities, basically as long as they can defend alone, and they can change their defenses indefinitely when they encounter blocking.
It is foreseeable that G4 will also play very fiercely, and Dillon will inevitably have a full booing as long as he takes the ball. In addition, the old Payton, who G3 planned to sit behind the Grizzlies bench, did not get his wish, and he sat behind the Warriors bench. With Dillon back this time, Payton Sr. is likely to sit behind the Grizzlies bench and condemn Dillon to some extent.
The smell of gunpowder on both sides is very strong, the first three games each expel one person, who is the turn of this game? Green is now very good at controlling his emotions, like the situation in G3 in which the sledgehammer eats a technical offense and then chatters with the referee will not appear again in Green.
Overall, the G4 Warriors have a higher probability of winning, and we'll see if it's a big win or a near win. I am Zhouyu, thank you for reading, welcome to like and follow, thank you!