This article was compiled from: The Athletic
Written by Jovan Buha
原标题：Lakers-Grizzlies preview and prediction: Defending Anthony Davis and Ja Morant, X-factors
Since the trade deadline, the Lakers and Grizzlies have been the two best-performing teams in the West. They are both defensively minded, led by an outside star and an inside star, and both like to attack the inside. As Bushy Brow says, it's going to be a "fun" series. Let's dive into it.
Let's take a look at two sets of data, the above is the respective season data of the Lakers and Grizzlies, and the following is the data of the 3 games between the two sides -
The Lakers' question: How do they limit Morant's speed?
The Lakers should try not to let Morant attack with the ball as much as possible. They didn't do that in the March 1 game, and Morant scored 39 points, including 28 points in the third quarter. The best way for the Lakers is to shoot Morant, who shot only 30.7% from three-point range this season, and he shot 1 of 11 three-pointers in two games against the Lakers. Morant's speed is too fast, which is his most obvious advantage, and the Lakers can't let him hit the inside at will.
Morant is one of the most threatening fast-offensive players in the league, and his top speed can easily break through defenders, hit the basket to score, or pass to teammates who are in the open space. Morant beat Schroder with speed and athleticism in Game 2, and the Lakers need to deploy more players to disrupt Morant's rhythm, and Reeves, Vanderbilt, and Troy Brown may all be arranged to defend Morant.
If Morant is the best player in this series, the Lakers will likely be eliminated. If he's not, he might be a close series. If he doesn't perform as well as James and Thick Brows, the Lakers have a good chance of qualifying.
Grizzly Question: Do they wrap thick eyebrows?
The Grizzlies are likely to use Dillon to defend James, Tillman to defend Thick Brows, Jalen Jackson Jr. to defend Vanderbilt (so he can always assist his teammates), Morant to defend Russell, and Bane to defend Reeves.
In the two games against the Grizzlies, he averaged 29 points, 20.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks while shooting 55.6 percent from the field and averaging 11 free throws per game, demonstrating his ability to dominate the interior in this series.
The Lakers need a aggressive brow, and there has been too much time this season for the Lakers to either ignore the brow on the offensive end or let the opposing duo or even three-man bag drown him. How to better use thick eyebrows is a question that Hamm needs to study before G1.
Against the Grizzlies, Thick Eyebrows can't be satisfied with jump shots, he should decisively attack the basket, if Tillman and Jaren Jackson Jr. are not on the court, Thick Eyebrows can simply feast on the inside, and no player can match his size and athleticism.
Without Adams and Clark, the Grizzlies are bound to decline in controlling each other's frontcourt rebounds, which is an advantage that thick eyebrows and the Lakers can use. In the regular season game, the Grizzlies didn't have a thick eyebrow, but they probably did so in the playoffs. How the Lakers crack each other's anti-thick eyebrow strategy will be an interesting attraction in this series, and head coaches Hamm and Jenkins will face off.
The Lakers' X-Factor: Reeves
A number of Lakers players are expected to be the X-factor, including Hachimura, Schroder, Vanderbilt, but Reeves has been the Lakers' third-best player this season, and the Lakers need Reeves to play well in this series.
Reeves is likely to be the first player to go up and defend Morant, and when he's not guarding Morant, he may defend Bane, Kennard or Jones.
His ability to make fouls has reached elite level, and he has the potential to get Dillon, Bane and even Jaren Jackson Jr. into foul trouble.
The Grizzlies' X-Factor: Jalen Jackson Jr
Jaren Jackson Jr. may be too good to be considered an X-factor, but without Adams and Clark, his importance has increased greatly to affect the direction of this series.
Since Clark's season reimbursement, Jackson Jr.'s performance has become more prominent, and the offensive end has also played a bigger role. Since March 6, he has averaged 23.5 points per game, shooting 53.2% from the field and 39.3% from three-point range, which is already considered the top performance in the league.
Jackson Jr. is undoubtedly the best defender in terms of efficiency per minute, but he has too many fouls. He made five fouls in each of his three meetings with the Lakers, sometimes forcing him to sit on the bench in the fourth quarter. The Lakers' focus on interior offense is also a challenge for Jackson Jr. Tillman is a reliable role player, but has limited defensive contributions.
The X-Factor of the Series: Anti-Fast Attack
Both teams are fast-attack masters, so the X-factor of the series should be the defense of fast-attack.
The Grizzlies rank 22nd in the league in positional warfare points per game, but fast-break scores third. They ranked fourth in scoring on a fast attack through a steal and fifth in scoring a fast attack after grabbing a rebound. Morant, Jones, and Bane are all fast attack masters.
By comparison, the Lakers rank 19th in the league in positional warfare points per game and seventh in fast-break scoring. The Lakers grabbed rebounds and launched a fast attack in second place, but the fast attack that took advantage of the opponent's mistakes only ranked 30th.
In terms of defensive fast-offense, the Grizzlies rank 16th in fast-break points per game, slightly below the league average, but the Lakers are even worse, and their stat is only 27th, which may become the Achilles' heel in the series.
Series prediction score: The Lakers win 4-3
In the regular season meeting, the Lakers are 2-1, but it is difficult to get much information from it. Between James, Morant and Bushybrow, at least one person is absent in every meeting. Thick Brow and James did not join forces in any of them.
The clash of the past two seasons has shown that the two teams don't like each other, and a lot of trash talk and confrontation is expected, and this round of the showdown has the potential to be the most exciting series of series.
The role of Adams and Clark on grizzly bears cannot be underestimated. Adams' rebounding, cover and toughness, and Clark's defensive, dynamic and athletic talent have been key to the Grizzlies' success over the past two seasons. The Grizzlies are 20-16 since Adams' injury, and interestingly, after Clark's injury, the Grizzlies have a better record, 13-7.
The Lakers arguably have two of the best players in the series, but Morant is also close. The two teams are likely to play as late as the seventh and at least six, with a small difference. The prediction is that the Lakers will win 4-3.