On April 25, 2022, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Sustained Recovery of Consumption (hereinafter referred to as the Opinions), which has good guiding significance for stabilizing and promoting automobile consumption, and is also conducive to the further introduction of specific measures to promote automobile consumption by local governments.
The "Opinions" pointed out that the barriers to restricting consumption should be broken. Steadily increase bulk consumption such as automobiles, and all regions must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and promote the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to use management. Establish and improve the management mechanism of the automobile modification industry. Completely abolish the policy of restricting the relocation of used cars, and implement inter-provincial measures for the registration of small non-operating used car transactions.
As a part of the automotive industry, the timely introduction of the "Opinions" is beneficial to the development of the caravan market, especially to expand the consumption of new RVs. Because RVs are in the category of improvement consumption.
At present, RVs are mainly converted from light passengers, and the development of RVs is closely related to the bus market. In other words, the growth of the caravan market will inevitably bring benefits to the development of buses.
Judging from the recent market sales, RVs have begun to exert their strength and have begun to play a role in improving the bus market.
According to the data, the cumulative sales of RVs in 2021 were 12,582 units, up 43.2% year-on-year, outperforming the growth rate of the bus market in 2021 by nearly 30.6 percentage points. In the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative sales of RVs totaled 2425 units, an increase of 17% year-on-year, outperforming the growth rate of the bus market in the first quarter of 2022 by nearly 35.7 percentage points.
From the perspective of the sales structure of the current caravan market, self-propelled caravans with light passenger modifications below 6 meters are the mainstream, and the proportion of light guest room vehicles under 6 meters in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 is 99.22% and 99.5%, respectively. It shows that the recent growth of the caravan market is mainly reflected in the growth areas of light guest room vehicles.
From the perspective of the competitive landscape of the caravan market, there are about 20 modification companies entering the caravan market, and SAIC Maxus, Nanjing Automobile and Jiangling Motors have performed more prominently.
From the perspective of the flow of caravan areas, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other regional markets have more sales. The top 5 regional markets for RV sales in the first quarter of 2022 are Jiangsu, Hubei, Shandong, Zhejiang and Guangdong, and the top 5 regional markets for RV sales in 2021 are Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang, Henan and Guangdong. Overall, RVs are mainly sold to developed coastal areas or economic provinces.
First, the growth momentum of the caravan market is better, and it has become a "fresh force" driving the growth of the bus market
Motorhome sales in the first quarter of 2022 and 2021, compared with the bus market year-on-year, are as follows:
The figure above shows that in the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative sales of RVs totaled 2425 units, an increase of 17% year-on-year, outperforming the -18.7% growth rate of the bus market in the first quarter of 35.7 percentage points.
In 2021, the cumulative sales of RVs were 12,582 units, an increase of 43.2% year-on-year, outperforming the 12.6% increase of the bus market by nearly 30.6 percentage points.
It can be seen that whether it is the first quarter of 2022 or the whole year of 2021, the caravan market has outperformed the bus market and become a "fresh force" driving the growth of the bus market.
According to the research and analysis of the bus terminal network, in addition to policy stimulus, there is also a reason that after the outbreak of the epidemic, people pay more attention to the privacy and safety of travel, and RVs have such characteristics to meet the travel needs of some consumers. As a result, the demand for RVs has increased.
Second, models of 6 meters and below are the absolute main body of RV demand and the mainstay of promoting the growth of the RV market
According to the length segment of the model, the sales volume and year-on-year comparison of the RV market in the first quarter of 2022 and the whole year of 2021 are as follows:
The figure above shows that in the first quarter of 2022, 2413 caravans were sold in the light passenger segment of 6 meters and below, accounting for 99.5%, which is the absolute main part of the caravan market in the first quarter. The sales volume of the 6-8 meter segment and the section larger than 8 meters were 1 and 11 vehicles, accounting for 0.04% and 0.454% respectively, accounting for a small and almost negligible proportion.
In 2021, 12,484 caravans were sold in the light passenger segment of 6 meters and below, accounting for 99.22%, which is the absolute main part of the caravan market in 2021. Sales in the 6-8 meter segment and the larger than 8-meter segment were 0 and 98 vehicles, accounting for 0% and 0.78% respectively, accounting for very small and almost negligible.
In short, the model segment of 6 meters and below is the absolute main part of the recent caravan market. That is to say, the recent RVs that have played a role in pulling the bus market are mainly light passenger caravans. Why is this happening?
According to the research and analysis of the bus terminal network, the reasons are as follows:
First, due to the impact of the driver's license, the user's choice of a motorhome under 6 meters can achieve better driving safety and driver's license versatility.
Second, you can hang up a blue card and enjoy a better right of way than a yellow-label caravan of more than 6 meters.
Third, 6 meters and below light passenger caravans are economical and practical, and the length of the vehicle will produce high costs and easily cause waste.
It is the above reasons that make the current RV under 6 meters become the "fragrant food" of the market.
Third, from the perspective of the competition pattern, SAIC Maxus, Nanjing Automobile and Jiangling Motors have performed prominently; the top 6 has accounted for more than 90%.
In the first quarter of 2022 (only the sales volume of more than 40 car companies) and the sales of mainstream RV companies in 2021 (only the sales volume of more than 200 car companies) and the proportion are as follows:
The above table shows that in the first quarter of 2022, SAIC Maxus, Nanjing Automobile and Jiangling Motors ranked among the top three in the RV industry, with cumulative sales of 917, 716 and 345 vehicles respectively, accounting for 37.8%, 29.53% and 14.23% of the market respectively. TOP6 accounted for more than 90% (91.75%).
In 2021, Nanjing Motor, SAIC Maxus and Jiangling Motors ranked among the top three in the caravan industry, with cumulative sales of 4583 units, 4415 vehicles and 1471 vehicles respectively, accounting for 36.4%, 35.1% and 11.7% of the market respectively. TOP6 accounted for more than 90% (90.64%).
In the industries where nearly 20 companies participate in the competition in the caravan market, SAIC Maxus, Nanjing Automobile and Jiangling Motors are the first camp in the industry and have performed more prominently.
Whether it is the first quarter of 2022 or the whole year of 2021, the market concentration of the TOP6 caravan companies has exceeded 90%. It shows that the current market concentration of the industry is very high.
Fourth, from the perspective of regional flow, Jiangsu is the only one, and the coastal developed regions or economic provinces are the main sales markets for caravans
The top 7 regions for sales in the first quarter of 2022 (only the areas with sales of more than 100 vehicles) are as follows:
The above table shows that in the first quarter of 2022, there are 7 regional markets with cumulative caravan sales of more than 100 vehicles, namely Jiangsu, Hubei, Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Henan and Sichuan. Among them, Jiangsu is the only province that accounts for more than 15%.
It can be seen that at present, RVs are mainly sold to coastal developed areas (Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangdong) or large economic provinces (Hubei, Henan, Sichuan).
Fifth, the policy market is double-driven, and the caravan may become an incremental market for the bus market
The reason why it is said that, first, the release of many favorable policies will play a positive role in leading and escorting the future development of the RV market.
In addition to the policies mentioned at the beginning of the article, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce recently issued the "Notice on The Guidelines for Promoting Automobile Consumption in the Commercial Field and the Experience and Practices of Some Localities", which pointed out that policies are used to support the industrial development of the automobile field and support the modified car (caravan) market.
At the same time, the "14th Five-Year Plan" Cultural and Tourism Development Plan also clearly points out that it is necessary to identify a number of high-grade self-driving caravan camps, promote self-driving tour boutique routes, and support camps to reasonably set up service facilities that are compatible with self-driving cars and caravans. It will also rely on products and routes such as railways, cruise ships, caravan camps and self-driving tours to promote the formation of an integrated pattern of multi-way intermodal transport.
A series of policies show that caravan tourism has been included in the future development direction.
Second, the customer group of the future RV market demand will continue to expand.
According to the survey of the bus terminal network, the post-80s and post-90s have gradually become the main force of caravan consumption, and the values of experience and taste of new have gradually heated up. Public data shows that in the future, the number of self-driving trips in the mainland will reach more than 3.5 billion, providing a solid foundation for the development of motorhomes.
In addition, the post-60s and post-70s are about to join the retirees, and the rich and idle people who have passed the struggle period have appeared, and the proportion of those who have a driver's license and rich driving experience is larger, and the demand for buying Arvedics is also more.
Third, the caravan may become a new growth point in the future bus market.
With the development of the mainland tourism market, the sales volume of the caravan market will increase year by year. The caravan is mainly modified from the bus, and the growth of the caravan may become a new growth point in the future bus market.
Especially in the recent past, the new energy bus market has continued to be sluggish, large and medium-sized buses have been squeezed by high-speed rail, the entire bus market is tepid, and the industry's "big to small" trend is obvious. Therefore, the bus industry, whether it is car companies, or end customers are looking for new incremental markets.
With the advent of the post-epidemic era and the improvement of people's living standards, tourism and leisure caravans will surely become the main force of the bus market, and I hope that the industry can seize the opportunity in time.