"Lager Finance" obtained a weekly average sales data of China's smartphones from industry insiders, showing that in the 15th week of this year (4.11-4.18), the national smartphone sales fell to 4.15 million units, 14% less than the same period last year. Declined for at least the third consecutive week.
According to data from IDC, Prospective Industry News and Wind, China's average weekly sales of smartphones in 2012 were about 3.36 million units (175 million units in the whole year), and in 2013, the weekly sales volume was about 6.59 million units (about 343 million units in the whole year).
The statistical caliber "sales" here is the number of mobile phones sold to consumers. Another common statistical caliber of "shipments" is the amount of goods shipped by manufacturers to agents (or middlemen).
The above-mentioned industry insiders come from a Chinese smartphone company with the top three market share. He believes that the low of nearly 4 million units per week is mainly affected by the current restrictions on passenger and cargo flow and the weakening of consumer demand. Some manufacturers may also be plagued by inventory mismatches.
In terms of passenger flow restrictions, as of Monday, April 18, 45 cities in China had imposed full or partial travel restrictions on communities covering a total of 373 million people, according to a report by Nomura Securities. The previous week involved 23 cities and covered a total of 193 million people. These 45 cities account for more than 25% of the population of the Chinese and nearly 40% of GDP.
On April 23, shanghai metro passenger traffic was about 100,000, Guangzhou 4.158 million (about 8 million non-epidemic), Beijing 4.1057 million (9.7013 million the day before). ）
In terms of logistics restrictions, although as of 9 o'clock on April 24, the Ministry of Transport summarized the data, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hebei, Anhui, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shaanxi and other places closed some highway toll stations or service areas in their jurisdictions, and the shutdown situation was significantly reduced compared with a week ago, but the recovery momentum of the national single-day vehicle freight index was temporarily ended on April 23, falling back to 89.63 from 91.11 the previous day. The Shanghai traffic index fell to 16.24.
In terms of inventory mismatch, industry insiders told "Late Finance" that the epidemic has repeatedly affected residents' desire to consume more or less.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics and third-party institutions in the industry, the median per capita disposable income of urban residents in the country in 2021 will be 43504 yuan and the average monthly income will be 3625 yuan. In 2021, the median monthly sales price of mobile phones in China is 2710.12 yuan, and the average price multiple of mobile phones covered by monthly income is 1.33. In 2012, the median monthly income of urban residents was 1832 yuan, and the average monthly sales price of mobile phones was less than 1,000 yuan. The average price multiple of the income coverage mobile phone is greater than 1.8.
This makes the low-end market below 3,000 yuan more resilient and more demanded, but in order to sell more profits, mobile phone manufacturers are more betting on high-end mobile phones from purchasing raw materials to commodity stockpiling, resulting in insufficient inventory of low-end mobile phones.
However, this is not an industry commonality, such as the iPhone 13 Pro 256GB best-selling, low-end iPhone 13 mini series slow sales.
In addition, China's smartphone penetration rate as early as 2017 has been as high as 96%, the sustained growth of the industry market is not sustainable is an established trend, the recent emergencies may only increase the slope, do not change the trend. After several major innovations in touch, 3G/4G, and full screen, consumers' motivation to buy mobile phones has weakened, and the replacement cycle has been extended to 25-30 months. (Gong Fangyi)