On April 22, Beijing time, the playoffs of the NBA's 2021-22 season are in full swing, because of injuries, the series has also had several sets of unexpected scores. First, Doncic injured the Lone Rangers led 2-1; second, because Booker injured the eighth-place Pelicans in the West pulled back one on the road, the series with the Suns became 1-1; finally, because of Middleton's injury, the defending champion Bucks also suffered a counterattack, and the series with the Bulls is currently tied.
So the question is, the same core injury, the same 1-1 series start, as the defending champion Bucks and the league number one Sun, in the end which team is more likely to overturn, we can do a simple analysis by the following points: (Middleton is expected to miss 3-4 weeks, Booker 2-3 weeks)
First: the superstar color of the wounded core
Booker averaged 26.8 points, five rebounds and 4.8 assists per game in the regular season, shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 38.3 percent from three-point range, making him the Suns' number one scorer and the team's most reliant score point in key moments. Although the data is not gorgeous, Booker is an MVP candidate in the eyes of multimedia and celebrities.
Middleton averaged 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.2 steals per game in the regular season, shooting 44.3% from the field and 37.3% from three-point range, making it the Bucks' second scoring point and the key to the Bucks' championship victory last year. Although Middleton is not the core of the Bucks, he is the most trusted helper around the alphabet brother, and the game has a means to fix the tone at all times.
If you compare the superstar qualities of Booker and Middleton, it is clear that Booker is better this season, and Booker is more important to the team.
Second: squad strength
Although the Suns are a triple-core lineup of Booker + Paul + Ayton, they more often rely on the tactical system of all the people, but the playoffs are the stage for superstars. Paul cut 30 points, 7 rebounds and 10 assists in the first game of the series, Booker and Ayton jointly cut 46 points, and the Suns only won 11 points in the end; in the second game, Booker scored 31 points in the half, and only 5 points ahead of the Pelicans, which shows that the Pelicans are not playing badly, and in the case of Booker's injury, the Suns can not expect Paul to play 30 points, this time it is particularly necessary for role players to stand up, Ayton can not take advantage of the Pelicans' interior line, others have limited ability to attack autonomously. So it's not easy for the sun to get through.
Compared with the Suns, although the Bucks said that Middleton was injured, the alphabet brother is still the strong point of the team, and it is difficult to be completely limited, plus the team also has Da Luo and Holliday, at this time, as long as the role players can seize the opportunity, the Bucks will still be a good side.
Third: the strength of the opponent
The Pelicans backcourt is a combination of Ingram and McCollum, one old and one young, one big and one small, and in the first two games of the series, they have a stable performance, averaging 51.5 points, 15.5 rebounds and 14 rebounds per game; the interior line has a combination of Valanciunas and Nance Jr., which is also an old and a young, and the style of the ball is complementary, plus the Pelicans have some momentum young people, so although it is the 8th place, the pelicans' strength or explosiveness can not be underestimated.
The Bulls, on the other hand, were almost meaningless, with DeRozan scoring 41 points in Game 2 of the series, and the Bulls overtook the score in the final moments to win the game. There is such a statistic that can prove that the Bulls are a pseudo-strong team, counting the win of the Bucks, the Bulls' record against the top four in the East and West this season is 2 wins and 14 losses, DeRozan played one of the highest seasons of his career, but LaVine has been silent for a while, if it is not Vucevic's sudden opening, the Bulls want to win too hard.
In summary, I personally still think that Booker's injury has a greater impact on the Suns, and in the face of the young and aggressive Pelicans, the Suns are easier to roll over; and on the Bucks side, the alphabet brother is young and strong, and it is an absolute strong point, so I think the probability of the Bucks passing is still very large, but Middleton's injury may really affect the team's plan to defend the title in the playoffs.