Wait and see the NBA | Teams interested in Paul's contract are more likely to be in these three scenarios

The sun was going to cut Paul for a bit of a reversal. The current narrative is that the Suns are going to cut Paul is a misunderstanding, and the Suns may only make up for the flank depth during the break, without major moves.

In fact, there are many similar reversals in June every year, and it is common to repeatedly jump news before the operation actually happens. However, you can still roughly guess this thought flow:

The Sun must have considered the plan to cut Paul - you have a contract with a partial guarantee of 15.8 million and a contract of 30.8 million after the guarantee, of course, you have to consider the feasibility of the cut, otherwise why give partial protection instead of full protection in the first place?

Dealing with part of the guarantee contract is nothing more than three methods: cut, regularization after continued holding, and trading, and cutting Paul is undoubtedly the most important of the three options;

The rest of the league is excited about the Suns possibly cutting Paul, and the puzzle point guard for the old winning team, the backup point guard for the top team, the mentor of the younger team are all valuable, and under normal circumstances, you can't get a player at this level cheaply from the free market;

The market's reaction made the Suns realize the risks of laying off Paul, so they would show a sell-or-retain attitude rather than cheapening the white.

But the plan to cut Paul is not completely absent, and the sun will still be thinking about it. If the Suns do nothing, they will almost certainly become a team above the second largest line, because the Suns will pay a luxury tax with only 6 contracts in hand (Booker, Durant, Ayton, Shamet, Paul's partial guarantee, Payne's non-guarantee), and their salary will almost certainly exceed 179.5 million after filling the roster. The Suns' disposal of Shamet's junk contract would get them out of the situation, but it would also basically be a hard-cap team that can't be signed.

If the Suns cut Paul, their payroll for next season will be instantly reduced by $15 million, and they can keep their total salary below the hard cap and have a chance to pursue some of the biggest names in the market with signings. And, more importantly, they can also re-sign Paul, which means that the team has more freedom to operate without losing its fighting power.

Another option is for the Suns to partially guarantee Paul for one year, and the non-guaranteed contract for one year is extended for 5 years on a 2X+1 basis, so that the Suns' salary next season can be further reduced. However, this way of working will prevent the Suns from re-signing Paul, but the Suns have the possibility of using the full mid-range. If the Suns knew that they would lose Paul by cutting Paul, it would have gained more power in the short term than the first plan.

The above are the benefits of cutting Paul, and I think the Suns definitely prefer the first plan, after all, Paul pulls again, his level will be higher than a player who takes the full middle class (12 million), after all, you don't know who the last person to go to the Sun to get the full middle class is. Option 1 is equivalent to Paul cutting his salary out of thin air to help the Suns increase operational freedom, which is similar to Harden's choice last year.

But will Paul be willing?

In our view, a star who has already earned $360 million in his career to give up $15 million later in his career to increase his chances of chasing a championship with his team seems like a choice to make without thinking. The problem is that even if Paul doesn't care about the money, he'll reassess the Suns' chances and his stay with the Suns — they can't put together a starting Suns with a guaranteed contract in hand, and the effort they have to make to compete for the championship is certainly not just a small step, and the window left for this team and Paul is not enough.

The Suns are not the same as the team that reached the Finals two years ago. On the one hand, the pursuit of Durant's trade hollowed out the forward line, the team's depth also became a mess, and the Suns fell from a balanced and consistent standard blocking team to a situation where the big two did not dare to rest. And the Kombat whirlwind flow after a few games against the Nuggets series has completely lost traces of Paul's trading era. On the other hand, Paul's own decline determines that the Suns really can't go the old way, and the system promoted by Paul has become uncompetitive, and you should remember the embarrassment of Paul squatting in the bottom corner when Dub is open, and his value under the team's new style of play has greatly shrunk.

It's no secret that the Suns are building a whole new team around Booker and Durant. This requires Paul to play a smaller role, preferably with less money at the same time. If so, can the sun succeed? No one can guarantee it, but what is certain is that even if the Suns succeeded, Paul, who is a year older, will get a ring that is not the same as the opportunity to compete for FMVP in the Finals two years ago.

That being the case, competing for the championship on a team that needs to be lowered in salary but has an incomplete roster structure does not seem to be more attractive to compete for the championship than to go to the free market to find a team with a complete structure and a control of the field auxiliary puzzle.

If you're Paul, when you hear, "Why don't you take more than 10 million less, and then we can go to the market around Booker and Durant to find three more playoff puzzles that can play about 20 minutes, so that we can compete for the championship", you must think that there is a guy next door named Harden who listened to similar nonsense last year, and now he looks uncertain. People also have "as one of the dual cores" and, "next year we have the opportunity to sign a bigger contract", such a pie.

For Paul, being cut meant text messages from Kachi, James, Letters, Curry, and even Jordan Jr. coming one after another. It's just a matter of using a base-salary Paul to solve the Clippers' point guard problem, and if a base-salary Paul solves the Nuggets' transition problem, it would be too much - thinking of such a plot, isn't the Sun desperate?

The Suns need to confirm that Paul will remain on the team after cutting Paul, which requires Paul to make great sacrifices while also pinning his hopes for the final ring of his career on the incomplete roster and no first-round reinforcement available for the Phoenix.

So, it's understandable why Vogel is speaking out — you see, we're different, we have a champion coach coming in and he can bring something new and within the core framework that already exists. Do you feel a thriving new look?

The sun needs such a voice, but if Paul's eyes firmly reject this possibility, then the sun will have to study what it will be like to hold Paul with 30.8 million, or what the contract will be worth in the trading market.

What is Paul's experience with 30.8 million?

It's kind of unloveable. This means that even if you give up Payne and dispose of Shamet, you may not be able to use the mini middle class. To strengthen the Suns, it may have to split the 32.5 million contract of Donbao into a cheap and easy-to-use No. 5 position, and at least one wing that can play as a starter, responsible for defense, and will not be released in the playoffs, preferably a standard small forward size. And then call all the veterans who decided to take a pay cut and receive a ring and tell them how good the chances are for Phoenix - huh? They say they suddenly fell in love with the snowy scenery of Denver Highlands? Didn't they say in the past "damn it, who will go to that damn place"?

What about exploring the deal value of Paul's contract?

It's kind of interesting, but it certainly doesn't have anything to do with Irving, and from the moment you keep Paul's contract, technically, there's no way to play a signing close to the top salary level. Harden? He executed the player option, then rushed into the dog's office and yelled "You XX raiser, either send me to Phoenix or I'll leave Philadelphia alone", maybe there will be a glimmer of hope? VanVleet had a chance if he followed the same gesture. But at least so far, I don't believe the Suns have received calls from the 76ers and Raptors about Paul — I mean, with their starting point guard, not PJ Tucker, or Korkmaz, or Thaddeus Young.

Those who are interested in Paul's contract are more likely to have the following three situations:

The first is to have a large contract to dispose of to reduce the total salary. What they fancy is that Paul has 2 years left in his contract, but the guarantee part is only 15.8 million, and the advantage of being able to pay in 5-year installments at 2X+1 is cut (the 15.8 million guarantee part is not much in 5 years). Maybe it's cheaper than finding a team with space under the hat to change the air?

But which team would do that? The Warriors pay explosion, but they won't handle it that way. If the Clippers switch to Paul, it's hard to resist not using it. Maybe after the 76ers renew Harden's contract, the dog will play this perfect tax avoidance maneuver, but the 76ers may not need to be so troublesome to achieve the same effect. Lone Ranger: Hello, we have a player named Bertans... Toot toot. No matter which team, if this is the intention to get Paul, then Paul will eventually flow into free agency, and then receive Kachi, Jamei - Rondo: I want to be in the Lakers, I can call this - Alphabet brother, Curry and Jordan Jr. calls;

The second is to have space in your hand to use, take a Paul back and use it. The current rumor is that the new version of the collective bargaining agreement does not allow teams below the poor ghost line to participate in the luxury tax share, which makes teams with a lot of space under the hat have an active desire to eat large contracts. Will jazz be interested? If Paul plays well, they may be able to go to the market by the middle of the season. The Jazz have the ability to eat Paul's contract raw, but the Suns should want to demand a little in return. If Jazz were the next home, would they give Olynyk to the Sun? The Warriors, Clippers, and Mavericks, which may need to optimize their salaries, may call the Jazz, and Paul looks sexier in comparison.

The third is that Paul is really needed, and the contract is taken out in exchange. For example, the Clippers can throw overflowing forward resources, Covington + Morris, in front of the Suns. This requires the Clippers to be completely unafraid of sky-high luxury taxes - Ballmer: Needless to say, no more than 1 billion in the future list to report to my secretary - and then put the matter of the second local tyrant line for later. Then, the sun said: If you have the face to take out this offer, if the Covington + Morris goods are really good, you TM will take it out for us to inspect it?

Although each plan seems to have slots, I still believe that the solar energy will deal with Paul's stay, and the process will have some pulls, but it will not despair, after all, this contract will only have 30.8 million a year left in July, and Paul is an old qualification who still has oil in the league and prestige. The worst-case scenario is a minor fix, the original team plays another year, and if the Heat can't win tomorrow, then, anyway, the Suns are the only team to win two championships.