On April 18, two major events occurred.
First, the Chinese Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Services for Epidemic Prevention and Control and Economic and Social Development. Among them, it is clearly pointed out that it is necessary to improve financial services in the housing sector.
Another major event is that the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first quarter of 2022, titled: "The First Quarter of the National Economy Started Generally Stable".
Put the two things together, you can see the current real estate market status, as well as the general direction of the development of the Shenyang property market in 2022.
Status: The stock is increasing, and everyone's difficulties are similar
Comparing the economic data for the first quarter of 2022 with the data of the same period in 2021, some subtle changes can be found.
In the first quarter of 2022, the national real estate development investment increased by 0.7% year-on-year, of which residential investment increased by 0.7%, compared with 25.6% and 28.8% in the same period of 2021, the growth rate of the growth rate has changed significantly.
In other words, the national situation in the first quarter of last year was very good, and this year, it can only be said that the growth rate has slowed down significantly. Well, refine it down to the inventory we care about most:
At the end of March 2022, the area of commercial housing for sale was 561.13 million square meters, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. Among them, the area of residential for sale increased by 14.2%, and if you roughly calculate it, this 14.2% is about 30.99 million square meters.
In just one year, the national inventory has entered a state of rapid increase from a state of reduction, and the difficulties of first, second, and third-tier cities are similar.
2022: Warm wind gathering momentum "hair-trigger"
It is precisely because everyone has difficulties, since the beginning of this year, the national favorable policies have continued, 4 trillion yuan, down payment reduction, official shouts to stabilize confidence, positive rescue signal is obvious....... According to incomplete statistics, the number of cities in the country that have implemented the relaxation of the property market has reached 55, and "all of them" are good news, there is no negative, and there are many heavyweight positives.
How many pounds do you have? Take the "4 trillion" in January. People who understand the development of the real estate market know that in 2008, it was also 4 trillion yuan, not only for the property market, but directly pushed the national real estate industry into the "golden age". In addition, the 3.16 special meeting of the Financial Commission of the State Council has a very clear direction: to boost the property market and strive to maintain an economic growth rate of 5.5%.
Although Shenyang under the spring breeze has not joined the "rescue" army like Fuzhou, Harbin, Zhengzhou and other cities, it can also clearly make people perceive the "warmth" in terms of mortgage approval and housing payment speed.
Especially after the Spring Festival, the projects on sale led by the "Five Great Openings" have been renovated by marketing means, and the intensity has increased unabated. In the past, where there was a little wind and grass, the market immediately warmed up, this year's signal is so obvious, buyers are still calmly waiting and seeing, why?
Shenyang: Boosting confidence is more important than the "bailout" policy
Recently, the market often mentions "retaliatory rebound" and "retaliatory consumption", which means that from the perspective of policy dividends, urban development and other aspects, Shenyang is still one of the cities with the most development potential in the three eastern provinces, and the net inflow of population also confirms this view, so it is certain that there is still a demand for housing, and it is only a matter of time before it is sold.
But the status quo is: the demand is still there, but the confidence is insufficient.
In the previous year, what affected those "prospective customers" on the sidelines was not only policies, but also incidents such as "thunder" and "rights protection". The result is that homebuyers doubt the developer's portrayal of corporate responsibility, quality of life, and vision of happiness, causing them to stop and look for, or even wait for, residential projects that really start from the living experience. Therefore, for developers, the top priority is to boost consumer confidence.
As a consumer, grasping the window period is king. There are fluctuations in the market, and everyone is waiting for the price to be further lowered during the cold period, hoping to enter the "trough". For Shenyang, the trough is on the "eve" of the policy "ming card". To put it simply, as soon as the "rescue" policy came out, "prospective customers" have struck, changing the relationship between supply and demand, some preferential policies are bound to be recovered, and buying a house loses pricing power...
So, back to the "big day" of April 18, if you can wait and see before that, then you should "take the initiative" after that. After all, the policy has not yet been "clearly marked", but the situation is already clear, you taste, you taste.