Financial Sight 2022-04-14 07:46
Today's strategy
【Shenwan Hongyuan Bank】On April 13, the National Standing Committee again proposed a reasonable concession of profits:
1. Since the beginning of the year, the National Standing Committee has repeatedly mentioned that the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and reasonable profits are no longer "new".
2. How to reasonably make profits to increase credit support for entities? This time, two points were mentioned: First, to reduce the RRR in a timely manner, and second, to encourage large banks with high provision levels to reduce the provision rate in an orderly manner.
3, timely reduction is easy to understand, historically to reduce the cost of social financing is to first reduce the burden on the bank's liabilities and then raise profits. The key lies in understanding how to understand the second point to encourage large banks with high provision levels to reduce their provision ratios in an orderly manner:
1) Provision coverage ratio = provision balance / non-performing loans, so the orderly reduction of the provision ratio starts from both ends of the molecular denominator;
2) Appropriately improve the tolerance for non-performing loans, which can sink to support small and medium-sized micro and medium-sized enterprises that are trapped in operation and seriously affected by the epidemic;
3) The provision for provisions under the corresponding control (in 2019, the Ministry of Finance also mentioned that excessive provisions are regarded as hidden profits), so that banks can release profits.
4. What are the reasons for the release of profits by appropriately controlling the provision provision: 1) increasing credit needs to consume capital, and the profits released by not mentioning more provisions must be the core of supplementary capital; 2) maintaining the stability of dividends, the major shareholder of large banks is the Ministry of Finance, which is equally important; 3) potential adverse promotions can be digested accordingly.
5. Finally, do not ignore that the objects mentioned at this national standing meeting are large banks, namely the six major banks such as industry, agriculture, China, construction, communications, and postal savings.
【Zheshang | Bank】How to reduce the provision ratio?
-- The truth of marketization and legalization and rational concessions has come!
One continue to be optimistic about the banking sector!
【Event】On April 13, the National Standing Committee proposed: Encourage large banks with high provision levels to reduce the provision rate in an orderly manner, and use monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction in a timely manner to make reasonable concessions to the real economy and reduce comprehensive financing costs.
【Review】On April 6, the National Standing Committee proposed: Use market-oriented legal methods to promote the rational concession of financial institutions to the real economy. At that time, the market was very confused, what is marketization, rule of law and reasonable concessions? Today's national standing will express the mystery for us to unravel the mystery!
【Conclusion】 The expression of this national standing meeting was very sudden, but better than expected. The performance is: (1) only raise the RRR, not the interest rate cut, which means that the price tool space is limited. (2) Encourage large banks to reduce the provision coverage ratio, which means that profits are guaranteed. Continue to be optimistic about the banking sector, the first to promote Industrial Industry / Ping An + Nanjing / Postal Savings, while paying attention to the opportunity of state-owned banks to make up for the rise, recommended bank of communications / agricultural bank / construction bank.
1. What are the benefits of reducing the provision rate?
Reducing the provision ratio can achieve the following three purposes: (1) to ensure that bank profits can grow and stabilize market expectations; (2) to ensure that endogenous supplementary capital, and reduce the occupation of capital by excess provisions, incentivizing banks to increase credit delivery; (3) to ensure fiscal dividend income, stable growth pressure in 2022 is greater, financial pressure is larger, so bank dividends are very important. Referring to the 2019 Ministry of Finance's Draft for Comments, the provision coverage ratio shall not exceed twice the regulatory requirements, and the excess provision shall be reduced to undistributed profits for distribution.
2. How do you understand the market-oriented rule of law?
The biggest difference between the 2022 concession expression and 2020 is that there are two keywords: "market-oriented legalization" and "reasonable".
(1) Market-oriented legal means: Encouraging banks to reduce the provision coverage ratio means that the growth of bank profits is guaranteed, rather than negative profit growth similar to 2020.
(2) "Reasonable" concession: The profit concession model has changed from unilateral concession to "positive sum" concession. The national standing meeting only talked about the reduction of the RRR and did not mention the interest rate cut, indicating that the future monetary policy price tool space is limited, mainly a number of tools, which is conducive to the decline in the cost of bank liabilities. Quantitative tools include aggregate policies such as RRR reduction, as well as structural targeted policies such as special refinancing (such as the establishment of two new re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and inclusive old-age care).
3. How do you view bank stock opportunities at present?
The policy of stabilizing growth continues to increase and continues to be optimistic about bank stocks. The intensive voice of the National Standing Committee means that the policy attaches great importance to the current economic pressure, and stable growth and wide credit are the most certain main lines throughout the year.
Let the profit expression be better than expected, do not pressure profits and do not cut interest rates. Let the profit model change from unilateral to positive, allowing banks to increase profits while strengthening support for the real economy.
Northeast Securities: It is expected that there will be a high probability of RRR reduction policies in the next 2-3 days
1. In terms of monetary policy, the National Standing Committee mentioned "the timely use of monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction". According to historical experience, the central bank will usually propose the implementation of the RRR reduction policy in the 2-30 days after the RRR cut, and we expect that there will be a high probability of the RRR reduction policy landing in the next 2-3 days, which means that the possibility of the RRR reduction on Friday is not low. Considering that the central bank will also carry out MLF operations on Friday, it is expected that the interest rate cut policy may appear at that time, and the subsequent reduction of the LPR interest rate is also worth looking forward to.
2. Why did the NATIONAL STANDING COMMITTEE last week not mention the RRR cut, only emphasizing the use of refinancing tools, but this week the NPC General Meeting explicitly mentioned the "timely RRR reduction"? We have seen some changes in China this week, especially the obvious worsening of the epidemic, the intensification of spillover effects, and the lockdown crisis in more provinces and cities except Shanghai, which has intensified the downward pressure on the economy this year and strengthened pessimistic expectations. In the case of uncertain time for epidemic repair, there are very limited things that policy can do, and wide money is the relatively easy thing to do at present, although from the current situation, the actual effect of adding wide money may not be very strong. However, if the short-term purpose is to stabilize market confidence, then the RRR cut and interest rate cut will still help.
3. In terms of economy, the npc standing meeting emphasized that "consumption has a lasting pulling force for the economy, taking into account both near and far, stabilizing current consumption, and releasing consumption potential", pointing to the importance of stabilizing domestic demand, which is also a reasonable choice in the context of the high probability of external demand falling.
First, in the context of the current epidemic, ensure the adequate supply and reasonable price of basic consumer goods, and solve the terminal "supply and demand distortion" caused by logistics problems as soon as possible.
Second, it is necessary to extend the category of consumer goods and expand the consumption capacity of key areas. The National Standing Committee specifically proposed to "promote the consumption of medical health, pension, childcare, etc., and encourage bulk consumption such as automobiles and home appliances", combined with the recent issuance of 300 million consumption coupons in Beijing to estimate green energy-saving consumption, the next stage or more regions will introduce similar policies, and new energy-related products, home appliances will focus on the stimulus object.
In addition, for the consumption stimulus of home appliances, we believe that we need to think in combination with its "post-real estate cycle" attribute. In fact, there is no contradiction between "housing and not speculation" and stabilizing real estate consumption, and we also tend to think that the policy will continue to relax the restrictions on house purchases, reduce the cost of housing purchases, and let the real estate industry gradually return to the attributes of people's livelihood, as a whole, the recent loosening of real estate-related policies is still a high probability, and we look forward to seeing the downward adjustment of the 5-year LPR.
(The above content comes from the exchange meeting of the broker, for reference only, according to this operation, no responsibility)