"Filling up one tank of oil can buy a bicycle, and adding four tanks of oil can buy an electric car."
The surge in oil prices has spawned many segments, and electric vehicles (here refer to two-wheeled electric vehicles such as Yadi and Emma) have become oil price counting units. Once simply used as a "work artifact", it is now a spokesperson for green, technology and people-friendliness.
But the new vitality of two-wheeled electric vehicles is not just poured out of high-priced oil. In the view of the Hong Kong Stock Research Agency, the reason why Yadi has been prosperous for a long time is not only on the road, but also in the workshops, production lines and laboratories that consumers cannot see. Technological change is a means of "punching a punch, lest a hundred punches come". Now, the two-wheeled electric vehicle market is competing for its own combination punch. Who is the grandmaster of a generation?
Dual carbon, power exchange, ESG, two-wheel electric vehicle global technology war
On April 1 this year, the Japan Electricity Swap Alliance Gachaco was officially launched, and plans to start a wide range of substations from Tokyo this autumn to carry out commercial operations. However, this is not a supporting enterprise spawned by the new energy vehicle tide, it is invested by the four well-known Japanese motorcycle manufacturers Honda, Kawasaki, Suzuki and Yamaha and Japan Petroleum and Metals Group ENEOS Holdings, which is also aimed at the power exchange service of two-wheeled electric vehicles.
In fact, in China, the same household electric vehicle brand , Yadi , will frequently switch power in 2021. On May 19 last year, Yadi announced that it has jointly established Aichang Energy (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. with The Great Yangtze River Group to provide power exchange services for electric motorcycles, electric light motorcycles and electric bicycles. On October 11 last year, Yadi launched a high-end intelligent tram replacement series, including a new car for the electric beast series, as well as the corresponding intelligent power exchange platform.
Two countries, multiple brands have done the same thing, and the reasonable explanation is the industry trend. When the entire new energy-related industry takes off in the context of global double carbon, global players have come up with a new hand: green environmental protection, scientific and technological intelligence, ESG and so on.
Overseas, some car brands have included the last kilometer in product planning, Mercedes-Benz and N+ bicycles have created 3 new electric bicycles, and Porsche has also launched an eBike Sport electric bicycle with a unit price of more than 50,000 yuan.
In China, Yadi, which ranks first in the world in terms of electric two-wheeler sales for five consecutive years, can basically represent the most advanced wind direction in this industry: Nobel Prize winner Andrei, known as the "father of graphene". Andre Geim praised Yadi, the world's first brand of electric two-wheelers, as "a pioneer and global leader in graphene technology", and two-wheelers should also be technology-oriented; in December last year and February this year, Yadi received the industry's first "carbon footprint" certificate, and the 2022 ESG automotive and motorcycle industry and the highest rating medal in the Asia-Pacific region, attracting the attention of WSJ, FT and Bloomberg.
In fact, this also reflects a fact from the side: although focusing on the environment and technology has become a must-answer question in the industry, the two-wheeled electric vehicle is obviously supported by the leader. In contrast, the differentiated advantages of different players have not been played out in this global technology war. In terms of practical applications, two-wheeled electric vehicles are also the mainstay of new energy.
In 2021, Yadi alone sold more than 13.86 million electric vehicles, and the total number of two-wheeled electric vehicles in China exceeded 300 million, completing user education earlier than new energy vehicles. For ordinary users, when it comes to green travel, two-wheeled electric vehicles are king.
However, when implemented in enterprises, the difference between this leader and non-leader seems to be very reasonable. Last year, Yadi's R&D expense ratio exceeded 3%, leading the industry. But for other electric vehicle players who are still in the "volume increase" stage, just maintaining the channel construction is a big expense. In Q4 2021, The main intelligent two-wheeled electric vehicle brand Xiaoniu Electric, sales expenses increased significantly by 65.9%, approaching 100 million.
In essence, this wave of green and technology has made the development stage of two-wheeled electric vehicle companies more clear. The Hong Kong Stock Research Agency believes that more mature enterprises do more mature things, which is the inflection point of value redistribution.
Reshape the industrial chain, and the value distribution changes
At this year's Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, Miao Wei, former minister of industry and information technology, pointed out when talking about the lack of cores in automobiles that in the face of industry difficulties, many domestic car companies "just shouted, did not act". He mentioned that some foreign car companies have solved problems by investing in locking production capacity, but there is a lack of corresponding actions in China.
Interestingly, in the field of two-wheeled electric vehicles, Yadi is busy actively deepening the industrial chain. In December last year, Yadi acquired a 70% stake in two subsidiaries of Zhejiang Nandu Power Power Co., Ltd. On March 7, Yadi and Zhejiang Nandu held a signing ceremony for Huayu New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which was established based on the cooperation and reorganization of Jieshou Nandu Huayu Power Supply Co., Ltd.
The action is fast and the goal is clear: the battery. The TWFAR graphene battery that helped Yadi Guanneng series sell 4 million vehicles was developed by Yadi and manufactured by Huayu, which shows that Yadi has grasped the pain points in the supply chain and must take the battery as the "rice bowl" of the electric vehicle in its own hands. CITIC Securities commented that this marks that Yadi has entered a new stage of development of "strengthening upstream and downstream control - integration of the industrial chain up and down - and improving value distribution".
Among them, the benefit account is actually not difficult to calculate, due to the high technical content of the battery, the impact on the electric vehicle is greater, and the importance of the two-wheeled electric vehicle company under the electric trend will only gradually strengthen. For industry leaders, it may be the only way to integrate the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain after the channels and products have a moat.
For the industry, it is also a symptom of increased competition, and not all companies have the ability to grasp the supply chain. Layout around the theme of green technology, the chain from upstream of the industrial chain to consumers is being reshaped, and the value distribution of the electric vehicle industry is being transformed. When more mature companies have a greater right to speak, the industry will turn to profit increase after the trend of volume increase reaches the extreme - this increase will be the first to manifest in the leader. Just like in Japan, gachaco, the power exchange alliance, even incorporates the battery recycling business into the industrial chain, so that various links can close the loop in their own ecology.
From 2018 to 2020, the market share of the top four brands in the two-wheeled electric vehicle industry increased from 47.4% to 57.9%, although the various actions of the head brand need time to be transmitted to the market, but there is no doubt that small and medium-sized players are being "forced to fall behind". The road will still be full of electric vehicles, but this technology war is destined to have many companies out.
Behind the game of change, a small number of players are more stable
Founder Securities pointed out in the research report that the high-end upgrade of two-wheeled electric vehicles is an inevitable trend. There are two internal reasons, one is that the high-end represents the domestic basic disk to stand firm, and the other is better quality, more intelligent experience and other factors, which will help to further open up the high-end market in Europe and the United States. The high-end upgrading of two-wheeled electric vehicles should change to high-quality competition in product quality.
In essence, high-end and this round of technology competition is the same trend, product power can come from many aspects, but to make consumers accept, the most direct way is either an attractive price, or an attractive function, design.
This also represents that behind the transformation of the two-wheeled electric vehicle market, car companies need to have "parallel thinking": the father of innovative thinking, Eduardo de Bono, believes that traditional vertical thinking focuses on "what", while parallel thinking focuses on more possibilities. Therefore, while high-end and chasing the wave of science and technology, it is also important to be able to flexibly apply the strategy according to local conditions.
At the 2021 Yadi Technology Global Multiplier Strategy Summit, Yadi officially proposed a global doubling strategy, and The founder and chairman Dong Jinggui said: "In the future, Yadi will occupy at least 35% of the market, and there is one of the three worlds." "Right now, Yadi's global market share is about 28%. The remaining growth needs to be diversified thinking, the domestic can get out of the trend of profit growth, and foreign countries must also look for multi-faceted opportunities.
In the European and American markets, the subsidy policy for two-wheeled electric vehicles continues, and the high-end demand is strong. India and Southeast Asian markets, originally have a motorcycle culture, in the ban on motorcycles, subsidies and other factors to lead, the demand for electric motorcycles will inevitably break out, but the market is more complex than Europe and the United States, the strategy is not only high-end problems.
A typical example of a nearby market is the Recent Launch of the Rena Max, an Abu Dhabi startup from the United Arab Emirates, which recently launched a takeaway electric car known as the "Gucci" in two wheels. From the demand for takeaway boxes to intelligent configuration, it is like a typical portrait of China's electric vehicle market.
But Barq said that in the past, the local four-wheel and two-wheelers were mostly made by Western or Chinese manufacturers, and these foreign manufacturers had no way to meet the precise needs of the local area, although similar, but the climate problems, food storage problems caused by eating habits, customs and design problems, etc. were not "god-like", Rena Max could even drive on the highway, and its target operation mode was to rent to customers in the takeaway express industry.
This poses more challenges to Yadi, as the winner of traditional competition, more user thinking is needed in terms of high-end and going to sea. Fortunately, with globally leading experience as a backslider, they at least have a strategic leadership.
On the consumer side, how to transform industrial advantages into product strength advantages is a problem that two-wheeled electric vehicle companies need to continue to think about. Zheshang Securities believes that the promotion of Yadi Guanneng series and urban high-end travel VFLY series, as well as the current achievements, show that Yadi's domestic product structure is expected to continue to be optimized. Simply put, consumers will continue to accept Yadi.
On the industrial side, the new national standard, the double carbon trend, policy iteration, etc. have brought structural opportunities, and green technology will eventually become a mandatory requirement, and small and medium-sized players will be cleared, which will benefit Yadi' leaders. Due to the different implementation times of local policies and the difference in the implementation of the new national standard, the dividend period of the domestic two-wheeled electric vehicle "exchange" will continue for a period of time. Those car companies that are more active in turning the current dividend into future advantages have the capital to go further.
I don't know who the dark horse is. But the change race of most companies will only win for a few players in the end.