Will there be a three-game losing streak? Seven goals in 2 games, a microcosm of Chelsea's plight in the second half

Every season Chelsea will always have some bitter owners who will take over the disproportionate part of the total number of goals conceded throughout the season. Last season he was inexplicably poked eight big holes by The ultimate relegated West Bromwich Albion, and this season he conceded nearly one-fifth of the goal in two games. If last season was a bad fit and was killed by West Bromwich, is this season a feng shui bad offense?

That's the end of the gossip. The loss of two consecutive defeats is quite ugly, but in the end it is only four days. The team's form inevitably fluctuates throughout the season, and it is not uncommon for two defeats to be caught in a one-week slump. Moreover, considering that the Champions League is difficult to win against Real Madrid, it is understandable that the quarterfinals really cannot defeat the twelve Champions League champions. Coupled with the five-point gap between the league and fifth-place Arsenal, the battle for the top four still has the initiative, and in terms of consequentialism alone, the situation is not yet to the point of shouting "Chelsea is in crisis". And there's still a haze of change of ownership floating on Stamford Bridge, and It's nice that Chelsea didn't stage free fall.

However, it is also clear that if Southampton Football Club is also lost, "three wins" or even "three consecutive defeats" will be extremely unfavorable to Chelsea; second, although some of these two wins can be classified as occasional factors of individual events (such as Edward Mendy's downfall of Benzema), it is observed that more are systemic diseases in the second half of the season. Occasional factors generally don't fade to play out every week, and Edward Mendy would just put him on the bench to calm down if he really lost his soul on the field. But the source of the systemic problem may be traced back to the imbalance of daily training, or even the flawed foundation of tactics. The latter will be the subject of discussion below.

When the full-back team has no full-back

Seeing the accompanying picture, you should also know that Ben Chilwell's injury is a major turning point in Chelsea's fate this season. If the unilateral folded wing can still be "left hand only auxiliary" to hold hard, then Rees James's intermittent absence since the beginning of winter has directly disrupted the balance of Chelsea's squad and tactical deployment. Maybe it sounds a bit like a small editor to protect the short, but even if it is as strong as the Premier League title double, if Liverpool does not have Andrew Robertson and Arnold at the same time, the situation will not be much better than Chelsea. Or City are without Cancello and Kyle Walker... Well, City may really be safe, after all, Guardiola spends more on the back line than the average team's attacking line, when I didn't say.

Thomas Tuchel's main formation was 3-4-3, with the trident at the front and two wingbacks forming a regular attacking five-man group, with the responsibility for providing offensive breadth left to the wingbacks. Moving close to the sideline to pull the opposing back line laterally, the smooth characteristics provide the option of the first time to cross, and the cross-movement with trident or midfield teammates to create opportunities to break into the box are all tactical tasks of wingbacks. And the speed and dynamism of Ben Chilwell and Reece James are rare assets on both ends of the offensive and defensive ends, giving Chelsea the capital to launch a quick attack on the spot when attacking, and shortening the time to recover when defending. Whether it is turning attack to defense or defense to attack, modern football has a strong emphasis on transition, and Ben Chilwell and Reese James are the best people in the team to assist the transition in the wing-back position.

The first few weeks of the season were slow and hot, with the starter briefly failing to win Marcos Alonso, and Ben Chilwell may not have been the most eye-catching player of the first half. But when considering that the left wingback has only one natural candidate besides Ben Chilvewell, and that Marcos Alonso's slow recovery and long-term back injury have always been a hidden danger to the Spaniards, it is not difficult to understand why Marcos Alonso cannot fully replicate the role that Ben Chilwell can play. Even if he could, it would be a fantasy to rely on Marcos Alonso alone to support the season. Robert Kennedy's recall, cameos from captain, Hudson Hudson Hudson, the United States and others, Marang Sal's blue cross from former Manchester United player Babe, are all expedient measures that have been tried and have been questioned. The reason Ben Chilveel's injury is so difficult to "handle" is not because he has the highest role in the squad (and certainly not low), but because he is the rarest resource in the squad.

The situation of Reece James on the other side is not necessarily much more than that. On the good side, there are at least more natural replacements for the right wing-back than the left-wing-back, at least there is a captain as an alternative, and Odoi and the U.S. team can also return to the tactical arrangement that once regarded the right-wing-back as a right-wing attacking free man. Taking a step back, even if the formation were to be temporarily adjusted to a four-back, the captain playing right-back would be much more reassuring than Marcos Alonso playing left-back. But the captain's assists and speed could not fully meet the requirements of the aforementioned wingbacks when pressing forward, and Hudson-Odoi and the Us team could not keep it on the contrary. So during Reese James' recuperation, Thomas Tuchel's troubles with filling vacancies on the right were not much better than the troubles he had on the left.

The chain reaction of folded wings that are difficult to fly and lack of side attack

So, without the wingbacks, can't support the attacking group of five people? Not necessarily, otherwise a team like Manchester City that doesn't play wing-back will never be able to score. City, who played 4-3-3, had no wing-backs, and the attacking group was replaced by the trident and the two No. 8 positions in midfield. The players who play the "winger" are actually not more responsible for the ball, but more actively create and look for opportunities to break through with the opposing full-back players, and then decide to enter the box according to the situation or cooperate with the No. 8 player who is good at using half-space. The point is that whether it is Phil Foden who is smooth foot, or Sterling and Mahrez who are back foot, they all pull wide from the starting position when attacking, making the best use of the width of the court. Off-topic, Xavi's Barcelona also focuses on this kind of double-8 and pulling wingers in front of the front, which is quite different from the tiki-taka that everyone subconsciously assumes.

The camera returns to Chelsea's side. With wingbacks out of stock, Thomas Tuchel has tried to route the corresponding attacking group in a similar way. Marcos Alonso's best way to do this is to get him into the box, so from the club world cup final onwards, Thomas Tuchel has tried to pull Timo Werner and Kay Havertz to the left flank, even approaching to separate them from the rest of their teammates and single them off with the opposing right-back. However, this is not the job they are best at, and they have not seen too good results so far.

In fact, although Chelsea has many attacking personnel, its best range of activity is in the sidelines. Timo Werner and Kay Havertz are suitable for staying in the middle as strikers or side strikers, the U.S. team's cross ball and Hakim Ziyech's pass are suitable for cutting in between the three-gate line and the top of the penalty area and looking for half-space, and Mason Mount, who is nominally a trident but a midfielder, is unlikely to stay on the wing and do lateral pulls. Hudson-Odoi has some opportunities to pull out the gap on the right in terms of player characteristics, but he himself believes that the best position and the position to play this season are mainly on the left wing, and he was unfortunately injured in February and March after a tight supply, and Thomas Tuchel did not seem to think that he showed enough ability to challenge the starting position throughout the season.

Counting this, Chelsea is not without players who can "stand" on the flanks, but there is clearly a lack of players who can "play" on the flanks. Players who can provide a certain amount of lateral strike cannot compensate for the impact and vitality of Ben Chilwell and Rees James. Attacking on the pitch is always the combination of sides and the most effective. Chelsea have no shortage of back-up players who can provide firepower in the middle, with Mateo Kovacic and kante playing normally. However, the side road cannot fly in most cases, and it is useless to go up the middle road, and it will collide with the trident that is inertia moving closer to the middle road. Coupled with the lack of players in the squad who are willing or capable of trying penetrating passes in the middle (Lukaku's most needed partner is this), the inertia of the players on the field to get the ball is to split the two wings, and Chelsea's recent lack of success in attack can be imagined.

To四后卫，or not to四后卫，that is the question.

In simple terms, the problem is that compared to the usual three-backs, the recent four-backs have stretched the longitudinal distance of the formation too long, and the distance between the three lines is too far, resulting in problems at both ends of the attack and defense. There are two basic differences between a four-back and a three-back, with the wing-back moving back to the full-back position and the centre-back's cover reduced (excuse that sounds like crap). Let's start with the former.

Neither Maran Saar nor Christensen are two full-backs, or Marcos Alonso is the co-captain, neither is known for its flank or impact. Moving from wing-back to full-back, the longer the support distance from the attacking line makes it more difficult to put into the attack. The effect of rushing forward is limited, and it will not be able to catch up because of the speed limit, and it is impossible to rely on the wing-back as the first line of defense as the three defenders. Don't press forward? The already meagre flanking force was nearly depleted, and Thomas Tuchel encouraged two midfielders to go up and attack, becoming the defensive position and the offensive group was pulled to 5-0-5, and even when the midfielder was dragged forward, it became 4-0-6. The problem of long vertical distances is used to the fullest by Brentford, who can drive straight into the box once any defender is broken through when being counter-attacked.

There are two explanations for the reduction of cover for centre-backs, one is that the cover provided by the centre-back is reduced, the other is that the cover received by the centre-back is reduced, and the situation at Chelsea is "all above". The first missing full-back's first-time line-covering caused the full-back players to lose ground slightly in the previous paragraph, and antonio Rudiger was also missing. It is easier to remember Antonio Rudiger's quota of one long-range shot per game, but it is his job in Chelsea's attacking blueprint to move forward to level with the midfield line in the stage of organizing the attack. With two teammates behind him, the situation roughly offsets Antonio Rudiger's worries before moving; there are only two central defender partners left behind him, even if Antonio Rudiger's heart is big enough, the increase in the risk factor of moving forward is also an indisputable fact.

And the part that was reduced by the cover, frankly, Thiago Silva was not young. By putting two young and strong partners as his left and right protectors, and letting him face the possible heads-up of the opponent's striker with Antonio Rudiger moving forward, you may wish to judge for yourself which is more reassuring.

So, is it that the four defenders must have these birth defects, so the three defenders are always better? No, otherwise Manchester City and Liverpool would not have to play. Taking Manchester City as an example again (as Liverpool's use of full-back players should be too far off the beaten track), Kyle Walker, Cancelo and Zinchenko are all players who can be plugged in. Kyle Walker can fill the vacancy in the middle of the centre-back or the backline at any time, Zinchenko, who is from the front, has the ability to fill the middle of the road, and Canselo directly counts him as a free man. City have wingers who can provide flanking power, as well as full-back players who can move into the middle to maintain a three-line distance, and the four defenders are naturally handy to use. There is no innate distinction between a three-back and a four-back, and which is more suitable depends on what players can be used. Chelsea are just very unfit for a four-back at the moment.

But to be honest, in the absence of qualified wingbacks before, whether the operation of the three backs can be smooth is also a question. The strongman struggled to use three defenders, halfway out of the house to play four, Thomas Tuchel faced, it is likely to be a situation of picking and losing. Consequentialism tells us that the choice of four defenders is wrong. But does the three-back have to be the right answer, or at least less wrong? Not necessarily, not necessarily.

All is well done?

In fact, as long as Reese James is healthy, the problem is half solved.

Returning to the original situation analysis, assuming that the Champions League eventually leaves the game in a "defeated" manner, Chelsea's remaining tasks this season are only the league protection four. As long as the distance is not narrowed against Arsenal, the rest of the schedule is left to the two North London teams that still need to meet directly to fight each other. There are not many tough battles left in the league, and Chelsea can remain optimistic if they have to rush to the top four without any danger.