Imran Khan may be deposed, what are the reasons behind the recent political changes in Pakistan?

The Paper's reporter Nan Boyi intern Lin Yuxuan

On April 7, local time, Pakistan's Supreme Court ruled that the deputy speaker of pakistan's national assembly had previously rejected the motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan, and Imran Khan's suggestion that the president dissolve the parliament before the vote of no confidence was "unconstitutional" and "has no legal effect".

According to Pakistan's "International News" reported on the 7th, pakistan's Supreme Court announced the resumption of the National Assembly and cabinet, and asked the parliament to meet before 10:30 local time on the 9th (13:30 Beijing time) to conduct a vote of no confidence. If adopted, a new Prime Minister shall be elected during the current parliamentary term.

Behind the no-confidence motion is imam Khan's legacy of four years in power and the loss of military support. Zhang Yuan, executive director of the Pakistan Research Center of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, told the surging news (www.thepaper.cn), "Every time Imran Khan encountered a crisis in the past few years, the military still wanted to support him. In recent years, the opposition has banded together to engage in the 'Pakistan Democracy Movement', and the military will privately go to some swing people to do work, hoping that they will support Imran Khan and keep the politics relatively stable. But now in his fourth year, he is really disappointing the military in every way. ”

Motions of no confidence

A month ago, on 8 March, the Pakistani opposition coalition submitted a motion to the National Assembly (lower house) calling for a vote of no confidence in Imran Khan. Parliament is finally scheduled to hold a special session on 28 March, and shabaz Sharif, leader of the opposition and chairman of the Pakistan Muslim League (Sharif) party, formally introduced a motion of no confidence against the prime minister, which was approved by parliament.

However, with the arrival of voting day, on April 3, the deputy speaker of the National Assembly, Qasim Suri, rejected the motion on the grounds of a "threatening letter" from foreign forces, and announced that he would re-elect in 90 days.

In a national televised address at the end of March, Imran Khan said the government had received threatening messages from foreign countries before the opposition coalition made the motion, which stated: "If the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan is successful, Pakistan will be forgiven by the country, otherwise it will face serious consequences," Xinhua previously reported. ”

The National Assembly of Pakistan has a total of 342 seats. Imran Khan's Justice Movement (PTI) party, which controls 155 seats, is the largest party but has formed a ruling coalition with other smaller parties for years because it has less than half of the seats it controls. If the impeachment motion is supported by 172 or more MPs, imran Khan's government will be overthrown, and Imran Khan will become the first prime minister in Pakistan's history to be ousted from the National Assembly. The opposition coalition reportedly garnered the support of 177 MPs on April 1.

It is worth mentioning that the Prime Minister of Pakistan serves a five-year term, and no one has been able to fully complete the five-year term. In addition to Imran Khan, two other former prime ministers also encountered motions of no confidence, but the motions were not passed at the voting stage, and the two were not ultimately removed.

According to Al Jazeera, Pakistan's Minister of Information and Broadcasting Fawad Chowdhuri said on the 7th that no matter what the Supreme Court's ruling, Pakistan will move towards a new election, "because this will be the only solution to all the problems facing the country."

How long have you been in power for four years?

The opposition coalition may have deeper political and economic reasons for the motion of no confidence in Imran Khan.

According to the Nikkei Asian Review website, the government has been criticized for its high inflation in Pakistan. In February, after a sixth progress review, Pakistan borrowed $1.05 billion (about 6.7 billion yuan) from the International Monetary Fund, prompting opposition parties to accuse the government of "selling Pakistani sovereignty" to the IMF.

Li Min, director and associate researcher of the Pakistan Research Center of the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences and the China (Kunming) South and Southeast Asian Research Institute, told the surging news, "During the reign of Imran Khan, Pakistan's economy did not do well, especially due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the domestic economy continued to be sluggish, the income of residents fell, unemployment remained high, fiscal tensions, and foreign debt were high, which were the fundamental reasons. ”

Zhang Yuan pointed out to the surging news that "Imran Khan is a political amateur, and after coming to power, he still uses the thinking of an opposition party to fight dissidents and uses anti-corruption to suppress the opposition party." Originally, the Muslim Sharif faction (the first opposition party) and the People's Party (the second largest opposition party) could not get together, but then [the two] were forced into a corner, and gathered together under the banner of the anti-Imran Khan. ”

In addition to fighting dissidents, Imran Khan seems to be very keen on creating an image of an "anti-American fighter" recently. Analyzing the reasons for Imran Khan's early election, Zhanggan said: "First of all, once the motion of no confidence is passed, his personal dignity and political capital will be greatly affected. Second, Imran Khan started with his set of street lines, which is of political symbolic significance. He made a big fuss about anti-American issues and established a political narrative of 'anti-American fighters'. Even after losing the election, he has amassed political resources and powerful weapons for his future opposition status. ”

Imran Khan lost military support?

Al Jazeera published an article noting that Pakistan's military has long been a powerful political player, with 33 of the 75 years since Pakistan's independence in 1947 ruled by a military junta. The military intervened directly in Pakistan in 1958, 1977 and 1999, citing economic and political uncertainty.

"The role of the Pakistani military in the political situation in Pakistan cannot be ignored and can be said to be a decisive force." Li Min pointed out that "after Imran Khan's visit to Moscow, the military did not immediately take a position. The recent call by Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Bhajeva for Russia to immediately halt its 'invasion' of Ukraine shows that Imran Khan's foreign policy, especially his position in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, is increasingly at odds with the military, which may also be an important reason for his lack of military support. ”

According to indian media "The Print", the Pakistani military remains neutral on the no-confidence motion and has not publicly opposed it. "The military is reluctant to support Imran Khan, but at the same time it will not suppress him." Because imran Khan's government was originally supported by the military. ”

Moreover, unlike Imran Khan's gradual shift to "anti-American" stance, the Pakistani military still values its relations with the United States. Li Min said, "Historically, Pakistan has allied with the United States three times and received a large amount of military and economic assistance, and it can be said that the United States is one of the most important external strategic supporting forces for Pakistan." The chapter also pointed out that Pakistan cannot withstand the pressure of the strong military power of the United States, and its elites also have complex interests with the United States, so the military's attitude towards the United States is more "balanced".

However, since the Biden administration came to power, the United States has been more active in pursuing the "Indo-Pacific strategy" and Pakistan, which hopes to "restart" Pakistan-US relations, has been snubbed. Zhang Yuan told the surging news that there are two main reasons behind this: First, in the so-called "Indo-Pacific region", there is the US-ROK alliance and the US-Japan alliance at the eastern end, and the western end, that is, from India to the Northern Indian Ocean, which is relatively weak, so the United States must win india over; second, behind the US "Indo-Pacific strategy" is also the Cold War mentality of dividing camps, forcing the middle countries to take sides with themselves, and in the Sino-US game, the United States wants to contain China's rise, so Pakistan has become a typical example of suppression.

Will changes in Pakistan's political situation affect China-Pakistan relations?

On April 1, the website of U.S. diplomats published an article titled "Islamabad Government Change Will Not Undermine China-Pakistan Relations," pointing out that Pakistan's economy is currently faltering and needs China's financial support, and that China-Pakistan's energy cooperation projects have also brought positive changes to Pakistan.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian stressed at a regular press conference on April 6 that China and Pakistan are all-weather strategic partners, "History has repeatedly proved that no matter how the international situation and their respective domestic situations change, China-Pakistan relations are always unbreakable and rock-solid." ”

"Imran Khan should not be defined as a 'pro-China' prime minister." Li Min told The Paper, "Because no matter what government comes to power, Pakistan's relationship with China will continue to move forward." ”

Responsible editor: Hu Zhenqing Photo editor: Le Yufeng

Proofreader: Luan Meng