Recently, the International Olympic Committee announced the selection of qualifications for indoor volleyball at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.
The Paris Olympics men's and women's volleyball teams still have 12 volleyball teams participating in the competition. According to the selection method announced by the International Olympic Committee, the host Team France naturally entered the shortlist directly. Of the other 11 teams, 6 teams were selected through the Olympic Trials, and the remaining 5 teams were determined by the world rankings.
This selection plan may put Cai Bin in a dilemma! There's a reason for that.
Let's look at the specific selection plan. The Olympic Trials will be attended by 24 teams, with the top 24 teams in the men's and women's volleyball world rankings. The 24 teams are divided into three groups, each with 8 teams. The top two in each group qualified for the Olympic Games. Six Olympic teams can be produced through the Olympic Trials.
At the same time, the International Olympic Committee announced the deadline for the world ranking of men's and women's volleyball. Among them, the deadline for the world ranking of the men's volleyball team is September 12 this year, and the women's volleyball team is October 17 this year.
The IOC's time arrangement in this way has a certain special significance. Because this time just finished playing this year's World Men's Volleyball Championship and the World Women's Volleyball Championship.
There is nothing wrong with this rule, and many projects also select teams through this method. However, doing so will make it difficult for Cai Bin, the head coach of the Chinese women's volleyball team.
After re-serving as the head coach of the national team, Cai Bin talked about the team's three major goals this year: world league training, asian games to win the championship, and world championships to strive for good results. However, after the selection method of indoor volleyball for the Paris Olympic Games came out, it is estimated that Cai Bin will also reposition the three major goals.
With the strength of the Chinese team, it will definitely enter the top 24 in the world and get the opportunity to participate in the Olympic qualification tournament. But the Chinese team should strive to be a little higher in the rankings, preferably in the top six, so that they can get a good signing. If the Chinese team is ranked low, it may lead to many strong opponents in the group stage. There is a risk that the Chinese team may not be able to directly qualify for the Olympic Games with the top two in the group. This is possible. When the Chinese women's volleyball team is in the ascending period, it is not afraid of any team. When the Chinese team is in a period of decline, it is not certain which team to play against. Last year's World League and the Tokyo Olympics are a stark example.
If the Chinese women's volleyball team wants to rank high in the world, it must find a way to achieve good rankings in three competitions.
Since the Hangzhou Asian Games are held locally, the Chinese women's volleyball team cannot lose, and only by winning the championship can it meet everyone's psychological needs. With the current situation of the Chinese women's volleyball team, Cai Bin will definitely send the strongest strength to treat the Asian Games.
So how do you deal with the World League and the World Championships? According to Cai Bin's meaning, the World Championships strive to achieve good results. This is a more vague goal. Whether the good result is to win a medal, or to be in the top four, or to be in the top eight. If it only enters the top eight, it may lead to the world ranking of the Chinese women's volleyball team being lower, which is not conducive to the grouping of the Olympic selection competition. Entering the top four or winning medals, the Chinese women's volleyball team must send the strongest lineup. Even so, the Chinese women's volleyball team may not be able to get a good ranking. Whether Cai Bin can cultivate a strong team in a short period of time is still difficult to say. And the strongest squad finished the Asian Games and immediately participated in the World Championships, and physical strength will become a major problem.
The safe way is to achieve a good position in the World League. In order to increase the importance of the World League, the FIVB deliberately increased the weight of the Points of the World League, only lagging behind the Olympic Games and the World Championships. If you can achieve a good position in the World League, you can get a little higher in the points ranking, which will reduce the pressure for the next game. If the World League is behind, it will force the Chinese team to find a way to achieve a good position in the World Championships. At that time, the players did not necessarily play with a peaceful mentality, but it was not conducive to the team's play. This is something that no one wants to see.
If you want to achieve a good position in the World League, the insurance method is naturally to send a strong team. No matter how good a coach is, it is impossible to achieve good results without good players. This is again something that makes Cai Bin difficult.
Originally, Cai Bin wanted to train in the World League, and naturally wanted to give young players or newcomers more opportunities to participate. The new training list of the Chinese women's volleyball team has not yet come out. Some players when Lang Dao was the head coach of the Chinese women's volleyball team slowly withdrew from the national team. Like Yan Ni, Lin Li, and Liu Xiaotong, they have all retired. Zhu Ting and Zhang Changning wanted to recuperate.
Liu Yanhan and Yao Di did not participate in the training camp and were said to have to rest for a while. Yao Di, who is about to turn 30, may continue his career, but it is difficult to say how high he can reach.
Liu Yan, who is already 29 years old, is no longer in volleyball. Xiang Chu always felt that she might not play again. Liu Yanhan was in an awkward position. She was already fixed and could not improve any more. It is difficult for her to make a great contribution to the national team at this level. It's okay to be a substitute, but it's definitely not okay to play the main force. She used to be a substitute for Zhu Ting and Zhang Changning, and was not necessarily willing to serve as a substitute for Li Yingying, especially young players like Wu Mengjie.
Recently, Liu Yanhan is addicted to shooting short videos, perhaps he wants to transform and develop towards that aspect. If you feel that you can't make a name for yourself in an industry, it is not a good thing to change an industry.
Ding Xia is 32 years old, and it is difficult to say whether she can persist until the Paris Olympic Games. Wang Mengjie's state decline is an indisputable fact. The level of players such as Li Yao, Yang Hanyu, Duan Fang, Hu Mingyuan and Diao Linyu all needs to be improved.
The players during Lang's supervision period can really maintain a high standard and participate in this year's competition in the best state, only Li Yingying, Yuan Xinyue, Wang Yuanyuan and Gong Xiangyu are left. That's why they don't have problems with their bodies.
In this way, the Chinese women's volleyball team is really high-level, and it is in the year of playing, and there are not many healthy players. How will the next game be played?
The burden on Cai Bin's shoulders was very heavy. If you think about it in the long run, it is necessary for Cai Bin to cultivate new people, let new people participate in more competitions, and improve their level by training in the competition. But those newcomers have no experience in international competitions, and their ability is not very high. It is difficult for such a team to achieve good results in international competitions. In last season's Volleyball Super League, Vargas single-handedly tore apart the defences of other teams. She became a litmus test of the gap between domestic players.
Those players in China who have not been baptized by international competitions cannot adapt to the rhythm of international competitions at all. Only by participating in more international competitions can we slowly adapt, improve our technical level, and become a top player. Just by doing so, the early results will certainly not be good. This is the purpose of Cai Bin not to say the results of the World League, but to train troops.
However, the Olympic selection plan announced by the International Olympic Committee does not allow Cai Bin to train troops. If the Chinese team's performance is not good, the points are too small, and the world ranking is lower, it is not conducive to the Chinese team playing the Olympic trials.
So can Cai Bin let those players who have participated in international competitions participate in the World League? For example, Li Yingying, Liu Yanhan, Li Yao, Duan Fang, Yuan Xinyue, Wang Yuanyuan, Yang Hanyu, Hu Mingyuan, Zheng Yixin, Gong Xiangyu, Ding Xia, Yao Di, Diao Linyu, Wang Mengjie, Ni Feifan and other players formed a team to participate in the World League. They do have experience in international competitions, can quickly adapt to the rhythm of international competitions, and can achieve good results. However, such a lineup is too uninvasive and not conducive to long-term development.
This wave of players, some people are obviously insufficient, it is difficult to improve. If new blood is not added, the competitiveness of the Chinese team is certainly not strong. I believe that the majority of fans will not like this lineup.
This gave Cai Bin a headache. Use more old players, although the results are better, but it is not conducive to long-term development. Using more new people, I am afraid that the results are not good, which is not conducive to the Olympic selection competition. Then it is best to bring the old with the new, but also in the right proportion. It is necessary to ensure that good results can be achieved, and it is also conducive to cultivating new people with development potential. This requires Cai Bin to weigh the pros and cons and consider all aspects.
Of course, even if the Chinese women's volleyball team carelessly loses Jingzhou and fails to directly obtain a quota in the Olympic Trials, it can also obtain a quota through the world ranking. The remaining five teams are determined by the world rankings. The women's volleyball team is determined on June 17, 2024. This point in time coincided with the 2024 World Women's Volleyball League. This also requires the Chinese women's volleyball team to pay attention to the World League. Lang Dao did not pay much attention to the World League before, and regarded the World League as an opportunity to train troops. Director Cai may find it difficult to face this event easily anymore. After all, this event is about the team's Olympic quota.
Just according to the world ranking, it is not necessarily beneficial to the Chinese women's volleyball team. When the Chinese women's volleyball team is at its peak, of course, it doesn't matter. Perhaps the quota was determined through the Olympic trials. If it is in a trough period, who can guarantee that the Chinese team can win the place through the world ranking.
But the Chinese team still has a chance. If an Asian team does not qualify for direct promotion through this method through the Olympic Trials, then the top Asian team can also qualify for the Olympic Games. At that time, as long as the Chinese team ranks more than Japan, South Korea, and other teams in Asia, they can also qualify. The Chinese team should be able to rank first in Asia, otherwise it is too inferior.
Having said all this, I want to tell Cai Bin that we must pay attention to every event, otherwise we may not be able to participate in the Paris Olympic Games.