In the French election, Macron "led the way"?

On March 17, 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron presented his campaign platform at a press conference in the northern suburb of Paris, in the province of Seine-Saint-Denis. (Xinhua News Agency, Shaun Laurent/Photo)

Aurore Lambert, disturbed by the pandemic and the stock market, suddenly received a presidential candidate platform material from the French consulate and was stunned.

"It's been five years unconsciously. The election is here again. She sighed to the Southern Weekend reporter.

The first round of voting in the French presidential election will be held on 10 April 2022. Auror, a risk manager at a financial institution in Hong Kong, has been away from her homeland for more than 20 years as a native of Paris.

Liang Sijing, who is studying for a doctorate in sociology in France, is also paying close attention to the upcoming election, "Of course, we must care!" Even if you are not naturalized and cannot vote, international students should pay attention to it. ”

She has been living in France for ten years and plans to pursue a teaching position at a university in Paris after earning her degree. The adjustment of education, immigration and unemployment benefit policies are all closely related to the vital interests of overseas Chinese in France.

The highly anticipated French election enters the final sprint stage. On 7 March 2022, the French Constitutional Council announced the list of 12 candidates who have qualified for the presidency.

The latest polls show that nearly 80% of French predict that incumbent President Macron will win the election.

"Reformer" Macron

Recalling her study abroad career in recent years, Mao Lingling, who studied music in Bordeaux, France, thought to herself that being accidentally injured by gas in the "yellow vest" movement was the most dangerous experience.

At that time, she was going to work part-time in a restaurant near the school, and the crowd of protesters on the street was full of emotions and clashed with the police, and the scene was very chaotic, "I was choked by gas, and it was quite scary."

"Everything has been encountered, and it is the epidemic again, and it is a war." Mao Lingling's hometown is in Chongqing, and a year before the current president, Macron, came to power, she went to France to study.

In recent years, Europe has poured in a large number of refugees, and the policy toward foreigners has become one of the important issues in the presidential campaign, and France's education and work policies for foreigners have shown signs of tightening, which makes Mao Lingling, who intends to develop in the local area after graduation, feel nervous and always pay attention to the direction of the election.

The Yellow Vests Movement, the largest protest movement in France in decades, was sparked by protests against the government's increase in fuel taxes.

"If you want to reform, you will definitely encounter resistance, there will definitely be opposition." Ding Chun, director of The Center for European Studies at Fudan University, said the yellow vest movement was one of the biggest challenges macron had encountered since he came to power, and the core crux of his opposition was that his reforms touched the cake of many people.

Ding Chun said that in the French election five years ago, the political elite won the presidential throne, and Macron was an out-and-out "dark horse". At that time, as soon as the young man appeared, he was presented as an enterprising and innovative "reformer", which was also an important reason for his successful election.

As the youngest president in French history, he began his presidency in the face of persistent economic malaise, severe structural unemployment, polarization between rich and poor, and institutional rigidity. The two presidents of the right-wing Sarkozy and the left-wing Hollande tried to reform, but the road to governance was difficult and fruitless. Neither of them was re-elected, and they stepped down hastily after only one term.

After Macron came to power, he adopted the suggestions of the "pure student think tank" composed of experts and professors from the French School of Administration and Sciences Po, and launched a series of reform measures in a big way.

In the economic and social fields, Macron introduced tax reforms, tax cuts for the rich and capital, restructuring state-owned enterprises such as state-owned railway companies to improve the efficiency of economic operation; revising labor laws, reducing subsidy levels, and improving the resilience of the labor market. At the same time, he led the government to deepen reforms in the retirement system, health insurance system and civil service system.

Macron's reform measures have, to a certain extent, reversed France's long-standing plight of high deficits, high deficits, high unemployment and low growth. In 2021, France's GDP grew by 7% for the whole year, and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 15 years.

12 candidates

The French Constitutional Council published the list of candidates who were eventually eligible to run for the presidency, and a total of 12 candidates were endorsed by the required 500 signatures of parliamentarians, thus qualifying for the presidency.

Recently, a poll conducted by the French think tank Fondapol for Le Figaro showed that two far-right politicians, éric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen, had a 13.7% and 20.0% approval rating, respectively, followed by Macron; Jean-Luc, the candidate for the "indomitable France" of the far-left party Melenchon) has only 8.9 percent approval rating.

Valérie Pécresse, the first female presidential candidate in the history of France's right-wing Republican Party, is considered the candidate with the highest overlap with Macron's political spectrum and the closest voter base.

Out of interest in academic research, Liang Sijing gained an in-depth understanding of the political positions of the main candidates. She downloaded an app that tested political leanings, which anonymously listed 12 candidates' very specific platforms, judging the respondents' "political pops" and support targets based on users' support or opposition to these programs.

"It's all a matter of trade-offs, and it's interesting." Liang Sijing told Southern Weekend reporters that the test questions in the app also include whether to set up a new climate tax for the rich, whether to boycott the 2024 Olympic Games in France and so on.

After some maneuvering, the software concluded that the closest candidate to Ms. Liang's political claims was Fabián Husserl, a French Communist Party candidate.

"But I know that Husserl's political stance is relatively niche in France. It is unlikely to win an election. Liang Sijing said.

In addition to the mainstream political position in France, there are also many niche political factions. Even friends and family members support different candidates. Liu Xiaoliang said that her parents have opened restaurants in France for more than a decade, even if they have become French nationals, they only think about how to make money all day long, and they do not participate in political activities. She and her sister are both more supportive of Macron.

The clothing company where Liu Xiaoliang works, the boss and his wife are old-school Chinese who have immigrated to France for 40 or 50 years. The couple has always supported Mélang-hsiung, because Mérlong-Hsiung is a politician in the traditional left camp, whose political philosophy is relatively close to that of socialist countries, and the old couple has a high emotional affinity for him.

Mei Langxiong is a typical left-wing candidate. He advocated shortening working hours, lowering the retirement age, raising the minimum wage, benefits and tax rates, and even intending to end the presidential system of the Fifth Republic. Mei Langxiong's "Green Party" once launched two presidents, Mitterrand and Hollande.

Chen Xiaojing, assistant researcher at the Institute of European Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, told southern weekend reporters that the Impression of the French Nation to the world is relatively free and emotional, and from the French Revolution to the social movements of the 1960s, France has a strong leftist tradition, so many people think that the leftist position will be welcomed in political campaigns.

Historically, France has had only two left-wing presidents, Mitterrand and Hollande, and the rest of the presidents have been almost entirely right-wing or center-right.

Although Le Pen is a far-right among the current 12 candidates, she deliberately downplayed some extreme positions in an effort to cater to mainstream French social preferences. But it still advocates cracking down on immigration in order to cut crime and "save France from globalization".

Zemur, a journalist, is more extreme than Le Pen, and his propaganda and agitation ability is stronger, and he has won many followers with extreme views such as opposing the European Union, opposing immigration, and advocating force, and is known as the "French version of Trump".

Chen Xiaojing believes that in such a major event as the presidential election, the French people are more rational and pay more attention to the votes in their hands. Even within the right, extreme right-wingers such as Zemour and Le Pen, although it is easier to incite popular sentiment, are not necessarily welcomed by voters when they actually arrive at the polling site.

Standing at the "crossroads" again

The French presidential elections are held on a two-round basis. If no one wins an absolute majority of more than 50 per cent in the first round to win the election, the top two candidates will advance to the second round.

"There has never been a case in history of a candidate who received more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round and was directly elected." Ding Chun introduced.

In the second round of balloting, the winner with the highest percentage of the votes was elected. The two rounds of voting are spaced two weeks apart. In the 2022 French presidential election, the first round of voting will be held on April 10 and the second round of voting will be held on April 24. One of the big suspenses now is who can make it to the second round.

"As long as we don't get that Le Pen and Zemur up, the others don't really matter to us." Ms. Mao said she had heard some xenophobic remarks around her, although mainly aimed at outsiders in West Asia and North Africa, "but it really can't be taken lightly."

Not only are international students worried about extreme political forces coming to power, but French people like Aurora will also worry about their country choosing a "French version of Trump".

"I hope Macron will continue to persist in the reform." Auror told Southern Weekend that France needs a window of time to push through some reforms, but the situation in Europe is very unstable now, and she is worried that some extreme politicians are rising in France, allowing France to miss this precious window.

"If you still want to continue to change, no matter who comes to power, the task is very arduous." Ding Chun analyzed that during his 5-year term, Macron also suffered "Waterloo". For example, failing to control the pace of reform, not fully balancing the interests of all parties, hastily raising fuel taxes, moving the "cheese" of the middle and lower classes, and incurring the "yellow vest" movement that has lasted for many years, which is a typical "if you want to be fast, you can't reach it".

For the next president, the lack of "re-industrialization" plans, the slow progress of "revitalizing France", and the highest foreign trade deficit since 1970 are challenges that cannot be ignored. In addition, the people's purchasing power continues to weaken, and the troubles of tax burdens, fiscal deficits and public debt levels remain high, which also make people's scalps tingle.

Auror also believes that France, as a European power, needs an influential president to establish the image of France and safeguard Its interests.

"Whatever Europe wants to do, it has always been France pulling the flag, and Germany pays for it." Ding Chun said that with the escalation of the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Crisis in Ukraine has become an unavoidable topic in the election campaign.

The latest poll shows that nearly half of French (49 percent) believe Macron defended French interests diplomatically, suggesting that his shuttle mediation has won the approval of the French people, who are full of national pride.

Wave after wave of unevenness rises again. "The epidemic situation has just turned, and this war has greatly affected our company's business." Liu Xiaoliang said that the raw materials of their clothing company are mainly imported from Guangzhou. Since the beginning of the war, the euro has depreciated sharply, equivalent to the cost of raw materials rising, "I hope the new president can stabilize a little, and our life can be better." ”

Pandemics, wars, and years of domestic problems have made the 2022 French election particularly critical, and France is once again at a crossroads that will determine its historical direction.

(At the request of the interviewee, Liang Sijing is a pseudonym)

Southern Weekend reporter Li Zailei