If Russia cuts off its natural gas, will old Europe tremble?

In the cold wind, old Europe is trembling, will this be the scene we will see in nine months?

In 2021, Europe's gas reserves have fallen to extremely low levels, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to the danger that Russia may cut off gas supply like the sword of Damocles. What about the old Europe that has cut off the Nord Stream 2 pipeline with a knife and annoyed the polar bears and says that they want to cut off gas and need natural gas to keep warm?

Europe, which was already struggling because of the epidemic, has also spread the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, resulting in problems in Russia's natural gas supply, and world oil prices have generally risen, and Europe is facing the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s. Not to mention spending too much money, what if Russia really cuts off natural gas supply? Russia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, accounting for about 8% of the world's supply, and the European Union is the world's second largest import region and the largest buyer of Russian oil and gas. On the days of oil and gas price increases, Russia is not worried about finding the next buyer. For European countries, who asked you to sanction Russia? Such a risk, you have to bear it yourself.

How big is the risk? No solution, no solution? Old Sa felt that the first thing Europeans do is look up to the sky.

How much natural gas Europe will consume in the new year and how much gas it is likely to import will depend on the sky.

In 2021, the reason why Europe's natural gas reserves have fallen so low is mainly for two reasons: the first is that Russia is trying to raise the price of natural gas and have some control over sales; the second is that Europe has experienced a cold winter, which has brought heating energy demand to a new peak, undoubtedly increasing a lot of natural gas consumption. So in 2022, will God bring new punishments to Europe?

Who knows what God thinks?

Looking at the sky, there may be good news. According to weatherologists, the winter of 2022 will be warmer than it was in 2021 or even before, which may be a shame for environmentalists who oppose the greenhouse effect, but Europeans are relieved. Maybe not as much natural gas will be needed this year as you might think. (Next year?) I can't get by this year, why do I want to do so much? ）

The same God also brought bad news to Europeans. In 2022, the Earth will experience a new relatively dry year, which is more similar to 2021. Does this have anything to do with natural gas consumption? Do you have to burn more stoves when the weather is dry? The stove does not need to be less, but... The so-called whole body is precisely because the weather in 2021 is relatively dry, resulting in Brazil's reliance on water conservancy power generation is greatly reduced, resulting in Brazil having to import a large amount of oil and natural gas to make up for the energy gap, which is also an important reason for the price increase of oil and natural gas that year.

Is there anything else I have to do here?

If this drought continues in 2022, I am afraid that it means that Latin America needs more oil and gas resources, the oil and gas market is a global market, under certain conditions, you will have more and I will have less, which is really not good news for Europe.

Seriously, if Russia chokes up natural gas, how much impact will it have on Europe?

In terms of total imports, relevant experts believe that its impact has different calculations from 20% to 40%, 40% is obviously greatly overestimated, after two or three years of US natural gas is vigorously seizing the European market, achieving a considerable share - of course, Russia still has a unique point, it is the use of pipelines, the United States uses LNG-LPG (liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas), obviously pipelines are much more convenient and save money.

So does this mean that if Russia cuts off gas supply, it will give the United States the opportunity to continue to occupy the European market? Thinking of beauty is probably not so good luck for Americans. Natural gas production in the United States has also recently declined, due to the impact of the epidemic and other reasons, resulting in a decline in its oil shale development, while U.S. natural gas is mainly a by-product of oil shale development.

Even if the United States wants to help, the natural gas provided by the United States to Europe is also in the form of LNG-LPG, the production capacity is on the one hand, and the transportation is on the other hand - the ships that can transport liquefied petroleum gas are strict, must be specially designed, specially manufactured, and have limited tonnage in the world (it is said that the manufacturing schedule has reached 2026), and due to the limitations of transportation, the United States cannot quickly provide more liquefied petroleum gas to Europe. The same question applies to Qatar and Australia.

LPG vessels entering port require almost a level of martial law to ensure their safety.

Russia, the United States, Qatar and Australia are the world's major natural gas suppliers, and in terms of production capacity, Australia and other places are not without potential, but there is basically nothing that can be done about transportation. At the same time, in the face of Europe's demand for a large-scale increase in production, the attitude of OPEC oil producers is that since they can make the same money, why should they increase production to save Europeans?

It looks like Europe is facing the danger that Russia could cut off gas, and this year will be really sad. This has also become the consensus of relevant experts, believing that only by surviving the winter of 2022 can we consider gradually reducing our dependence on Russian energy after that, until 2030 to completely get rid of the situation of relying on Russian gas.

However, first get through 2022...

To say that the solution is not nothing, and there is more than one.

Don't look at the Europeans are generally five big and three thick, let him surf and swim, let him do some work is difficult...

First of all, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands and other major European oil and gas producers are not incapable of providing more oil and gas to achieve self-help, the North Sea, barents Sea have sufficient resources. These countries have been cutting production all these years for a variety of reasons, and when it comes to reasons, there are the impact of the epidemic, the promotion of environmentalists, the regular overhaul of oil well equipment, and the ideological questions - if you can buy it, why do you do it yourself?

Some European countries have become accustomed to using cheap natural gas, resulting in a long-term low desire to produce in this area. In theory, it is possible to increase production, but for many European uncles who have become accustomed to leaving labor, suddenly want to increase production, I am afraid that they will not be able to adapt quickly.

Another way, of course, is to tighten the belt of the pants slightly, these years, Europe's production is decreasing, consumption is increasing, especially in oil and gas, obviously, this is the room for compression. But people are accustomed to living comfortably, and in europe,those welfare-loving countries, it is difficult for any government to let everyone take the lead in living a poor life.

Another way is to appropriately relax sanctions against Russia, which depends on the wisdom of politicians, and the wisdom of politicians has always been difficult for everyone to compliment.

【End】

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