Wen | Liu Lanchang today's headlines original debut
Su Qi, the first inducteer of the "1992 Consensus," the former secretary general of the "National Security Council," and chairman of the Taipei Forum, put forward four thoughts in an interview after attending a lecture on "capabilities and challenges" for cross-strait attack and defense. But can Tsai Ing-wen listen? The latest trend of the so-called "sausage-cutting Taiwan independence" is to advocate "mutual recognition of sovereignty between the two sides of the strait."
Su Qi pointed out that the Ukrainian affair seems to have 4 enlightenments for Taiwan. The author believes that in fact, it is the "four questions", that is, four multiple choice questions to the Tsai Ing-wen authorities and the people of Taiwan, because it is a "curved pen" question, which can arouse the deep thinking of the people on the island than directly giving the answer.
First, he said, if there is a real war, this is a military issue, economic sanctions are useless, even if it is no matter how much cognitive warfare is done, no matter how good the propaganda war is, and no matter how good the (democratic) values are raised. This is true of Ukraine, and it will be true of both sides of the strait in the future.
Here, the actual Soviet Uprising is asking Taiwan, whether to choose war or peaceful development? If you choose war, then war will solve the problem, do not think that economic sanctions can scare the mainland, in fact, Taiwan is also subject to economic sanctions. In order to avoid being slandered by Tsai Ing-wen's "cognitive warfare" as "general communist", Su Qi only asked questions without strong and direct expression.
Second, Su Qi asked, the question to be seen in the military is whether the United States will come to the rescue? That is to say, when a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the Taiwanese people must judge whether the US military will intervene and whether it will "rush to the aid" of the Taiwan military. Sue asked until then. In fact, most of the people in the green camp on the island "do not think that the US military will save Taiwan." Because the war in Ukraine has shown from the dialogue between Biden and Putin that the US military will never send troops, many Taiwan independence elements on the island said that Biden's statement at the beginning of this statement gave Putin a reassuring pill and let go of the march into Ukraine to seize Russia's sphere of influence to ensure the buffer zone with NATO. Tsai officials also concluded that eventually the United States could reach a new compromise with Russia at the expense of Ukraine, because the United States has far greater interests in Europe than a small Ukraine. Therefore, the so-called "rushing to aid" the Taiwan military is a lie, and the current "vague strategy" of the United States is more used to deceive Taiwan, but it cannot fool the mainland.
Third, Su Qi said that if the United States does not come to the rescue, then we must look at the comparison of military strength and morale on both sides. Is ukraine's morale high? In fact, everyone is not clear about Russia's morale, but between the two sides of the strait, the Taiwanese people have to think for themselves, whether it is the morale of the other side of the strait is high, or the morale of Taiwan is high.
Su Qi's question, the answer is clear and unmistakable. Recently, under the pressure of the Tsai Ing-wen authorities in the United States, it is brewing that men of the right age to receive military training must be promoted from 4 months to one year, and Taiwan Youth quickly fried the pot, many people want to "serve" four months in advance, so as not to extend it for six months in the future, affecting the "life plan", frightening Taiwan's current military leader Qiu Guo is even announcing that it will not change until 2024. Why 2024? Because there will be a struggle for a big position at that time, the DPP authorities are afraid that this change will lose the youth vote and lose the right to govern.
Fourth, geographical factors. Su Qi pointed out that Ukraine is adjacent to European countries by land, and when war breaks out, Ukrainians can escape, and outsiders can also enter Ukraine. However, Taiwan is an isolated island, surrounded by the sea on all sides, and there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, can the Taiwanese escape? Can the weapons, ammunition, and other resources that help Taiwan from outside come in?
Su Qi believes that after the above issues are clearly considered, the situation between Ukraine and Taiwan will be very clear, so he advises Taiwan to be cautious. However, he felt increasingly pessimistic about Taiwan.
The author believes that Su Qi is actually pessimistic about the Taiwan authorities, but he does not say it directly.
In fact, since the war in Ukraine has been going on for more than a month, the "sausage-cutting Taiwan independence" has been continuously underway; first, the DPP has promoted the revision of the Constitution and lowered the age of citizens with the right to vote to 18 years old, which not only increases the number of votes in the Green Camp, but also paves the way for a future "Taiwan independence referendum." Second, Qiu Taisan, chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, suddenly proposed that "the two sides of the strait recognize each other's sovereignty." This is actually a copy of the "two-state theory" that Tsai Ing-wen has made for Lee Teng-hui.
The author believes that the Taiwan independence elements, like the Ukrainian Nazis, never "listened to persuasion" until...
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