On April 1, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference to introduce the situation of strict and down-to-earth efforts to prevent and control the epidemic. Wu Zunyou, chief expert of epidemiology at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that the epidemic of the Omiljung strain is still very serious to a country or region, so it is necessary to strive to control the epidemic in a short period of time and must adhere to "dynamic clearance".
Wu Zunyou said that although the Aomi Kerong BA.2 strain had a high proportion of asymptomatic infected people at the time of the epidemic, due to its rapid transmission speed, a large number of infected people will be produced in a short period of time, and the total number of deaths caused is still very high. Through the analysis of the data released by some foreign countries, it can be seen that the number of deaths caused during the epidemic of the Omiljung strain is higher than the number of deaths caused by the same period during the epidemic of the Delta strain.
Source: China Net
The above passage has caused a great impact! It makes people feel that the harm of Omicron is far greater than that of Delta, in fact, ignoring the following facts in Wu Zunyou's words!
1. "Simultaneous Period"
In fact, Delta's case fatality rate is much higher than that of Aumechjong. However, at the time of the Opmi-Kerong outbreak, the number of infections in the short term was indeed higher than that of Delta. Therefore, in a very short period of time, it is possible that the number of deaths caused by Omi kerong is higher than that caused by Delta.
In fact, tracing back to the original text, this sentence was reported by the Wall Street Journal on January 17, 2022, see: Deaths Due to Omicron Higher Than From Delta (webmd.com)
This week the nation recorded a seven-day average of 2,200 daily coronavirus-related deaths, higher than the daily death count recorded two months ago during the Delta variant surge, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Meaning, in the United States, on the average 7-day death toll of the week at the time of the report, Omiqueron caused 2,200 deaths per day, higher than the average daily death toll recorded 2 months ago when Delta was endemic.
However, the professional medical institution WebMD cites the CDC article as further explaining:
A CDC study released on Tuesday showed nine deaths per 1,000 cases during the Omicron surge, compared to 13 deaths per 1,000 cases during the Delta surge and 16 deaths per 1,000 cases during last winter’s deadly surge.
This means that 9 deaths per 1000 people during the Omikeron epidemic, compared to 13 deaths per 1000 people during the Delta epidemic. And in the winter that was initially popular (winter 2020), 16 people died per 1,000 people.
That is to say, in terms of the case fatality rate, Omikeron is lower than Delta. Moreover, in the article, The Whalensky experts further emphasize that many deaths are caused by incomplete vaccinations.
2. "Some foreign countries"
In his speech, Wu Zunyou stressed that the data analyzed originated from "some foreign countries". This means that the death toll from Amikerron is higher than that of Delta, and it only occurs in some countries. However, when the media reported, many omitted "some foreign countries", which was misunderstood.
In the United States, the death toll caused by Omiqueron is indeed higher than that of Delta (the last two curves, the penultimate is Delta, and the last is Romilon).
At the peak of the Aomikron on January 25, 2022, the average death toll in the United States in 7 days reached 2230, while Delta was only 2100 at that time (in September 2021). But all are well below January 2021 (when the vaccine was not widely vaccinated).
Trends in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States
Trends in the number of deaths in many countries around the world
3. Global overall data
Observe the historical discovery of delta, the strain was first discovered in India in October 2020. In May 2021, WHO named the Delta variant of the new coronavirus variant, B.1.617.2, the earliest detected in India. The variant was identified as one of the drivers of the second wave of the outbreak in India.
On June 15, 2021, it was reported that the "Delta" variant was further mutated to derive the Delta+or "AY.1" variant. On 2 July, who held a regular briefing on COVID-19, and WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that the Delta variant is becoming the main epidemic strain in many countries. Since then, the Delta strain has appeared in at least 98 countries and territories and continues to mutate and evolve.
Since the change in the virus strain is stubble-like, if you calculate that July 2021 was the main epidemic strain of Delta (in fact, much earlier than July), its epidemic ended in December 2021 (after which it was Omikron), and the following figure is the global total death toll curve.
The green part is dominated by the death caused by Delta, and the red part is dominated by the death caused by Omicron. In fact, many deaths from delta infection are also in the red line, because death is lagging behind.
It is true that among the points where the highest peaks are seen, TheOmexon is above the Delta, and only the peak is relatively high, and it seems that the Semikron is higher than the Delta.
But the duration of Themi kerong is generally only 2 months, and with the overall epidemic situation, the duration of death is 4 months; delta lasts longer, in a country from peak to fall, it takes 4-5 months, and globally, in the case of an Alternative to Themikron, it is endemic for nearly 7 months (May to the end of November).
If you count the time, it is speculated that delta caused a greater total death toll than Omexon.
The director of the US CDC posted this:
Compared with Delta, Omiqueron had a 53% lower risk of hospitalization, a 74% lower risk of ICU and a 91% lower risk of death. This is an objective assessment.
Of course, Aumicron cannot be completely ignored. The risk remains high for the elderly and people with multiple underlying comorbidities.
1, The Omi kerong outbreak is very fast
As things stand, Omikeron spreads much faster than the previously dominant Delta variant— the former has shown that the former spreads four times faster than the latter.
In the United States, most people who died in Omicron were not vaccinated, suggesting that vaccines played a role in reducing hospitalizations and deaths.
2, Omicron is not too serious but "not mild"
Dr Maria Van Kerkhove of the World Health Organization, in a video explaining the effects of the Omilon variant, said there was growing information that the Omilon was not as severe as the Delta virus, but that the Omilon variant should not be treated as a mild strain.
Van Kerkhov noted that people of advanced age, people with underlying diseases, and unvaccinated people are still at risk of developing severe illness after infection with Omilon. "We know that people infected with Omicron can still develop a full range of diseases, from asymptomatic infections to mild illnesses, all the way to severe illness and even death."
3. The burden on the medical system is increased
With the surge in Cases in Olmi kerong last December and January this year, hospitals around the world are grappling with admissions. Under the weight of cases, a collapsed health care system will inevitably find it more difficult to save lives.
As Dr Van Kerkhove of the WHO emphasized, an increase in the spread of Omikeron will lead to more hospitalizations, placing a burden on the healthcare system. "If the health care system is overburdened, then people die," she noted. We have to be very careful not to let the outside world think that Aumechjong is a mild disease. ”
4) What can we do to protect ourselves
Dr Van Kerkhove said that in addition to vaccination, other measures need to be taken to reduce transmission and disease. "Vaccination has a strong effect on preventing severe illness and death, but it is not ideal in preventing infection and further transmission."
"That's why we're still advising people to protect themselves from exposure to the virus." Practice social distancing, wear masks, make sure your hands are clean, avoid crowding, work from home whenever possible, get tested for COVID-19, seek medical attention in a timely manner when needed... All of these measures can protect you from infection and prevent the virus from passing on to others. ”
5. Reduce the risk of future variants
Dr. Van Kerkhove said the more widely the virus spreads, the more opportunities there are to mutate. Therefore, another reason for protective measures is to reduce the risk of further mutations of the virus, which would otherwise prolong the pandemic and lead to more deaths.
She stressed, "Omikeron won't be the last variant. In the future, the likelihood of more worrying variants is very high, and we have not yet discovered the possible properties of these variants. ”
"Of course, the new variants may be more contagious because they need to go beyond the variants that are currently in vogue. Its toxicity may not be reduced, it may be more or less enhanced, and it has more immune escape characteristics. So what we have to do is reduce the risk of new variants in the future. ”
In summary, according to the domestic point of view, adhere to the "three-piece set" of epidemic prevention, and keep in mind the "five also" of protection.
Written by | Little Healer
Edit | Swagpp