Author / Baked buns under the stars
Edit / Starry Sky of Spinach
Typography / Milk tea under the stars
Technological innovation is never-ending.
Today's new energy battery circle, after the official withdrawal of electric vehicles, on the surface it seems to be the dragon and tiger fight of lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries, but in fact, the undercurrent is surging and players from all walks of life have come up with their own "killer skills".
Previously, BYD (002594) iron-lithium two-generation blade batteries have raised the energy density of the batteries again and again, and have been loaded on all bydir electric vehicles of BYD, and are also actively expanding production capacity (estimated installed capacity of about 60GWh). Later, Ningde Times (300750) announced at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum held last month that it would release "Kirin Battery" next month, saying that it would continue to lead the industry at the highest level in terms of system weight, energy density, and volumetric energy density.
Kirin battery related information (public information)
Not to mention the 4680 battery researched by the untamed "whole life" master Musk, and the recently announced manganese cathode battery (related to reading the manganese metal in Musk's mouth, is it the next generation of gold or sweat medicine?). ）。
In addition to lithium-ion batteries, a series of dark horse players such as sodium ions, aluminum ions, and solid-state batteries are also eyeing the tiger, and may one day shoot the front wave to death on the beach (but the author is not optimistic).
So today I will take you to briefly sort out the battery circle developed to today, to see who can laugh to the end in this era of division, who will go down?
First, behind the unicorn, what support
When you hear the word Kirin, the first thing that comes to your mind is Huawei's Kirin chip, right? Nowadays, the prospect of the Kirin chip is still unclear, and Ning Wang's name for its next-generation battery inevitably caused ridicule from netizens (laughing cry).
Source: Web screenshots
However, the joke is a joke, although the Kirin battery has not been officially released, but according to the information that has been released, its power can be increased by 13% compared to Musk's 4680 system. You know, the capacity of the large cylindrical 4680 battery has been increased by 5 times compared to the 2170 battery. Dare to compete with the Heavenly Gong Test, what King Ning wants is this determination and courage to break through himself.
In addition, the author observed that the Kirin battery essentially belongs to the third generation of CTP (Cell To Package) batteries (the first generation was launched by Ning Wang in 2019). Simply put, the battery cells inside the battery are directly integrated into the battery pack, skipping the module link. Compared with the traditional battery packaging mode, the CTP solution can increase the space utilization rate of the battery pack by 15%-20%. This high degree of integration can also effectively reduce the cost of the battery.
Comparison of different battery integration solutions
Judging from the current industrialization progress, the CTP solution has been applied on a large scale in iron-lithium batteries, such as Tesla. After loading the CTP lithium iron battery, its battery cost is 15% lower than that of the ternary battery. In addition, CTP in ternary batteries is also gradually switching, and industrialization is the trend of the times. The author understands that BAIC's EU5, Nezha and other models have begun to eat crabs.
In the era of soaring battery raw materials (such as lithium carbonate), how can battery players who cost one inch and one inch of gold not rely on CTP? The launch of the Kirin battery in April is worth looking forward to.
Second, the positive pole is the concentration of flower activity
Just now we talked, whether it is CTP, or blade batteries, 4680 cylindrical batteries, these are from the battery packaging process improvement. Now let's look at the battery from another dimension, that is, the upgrading of the material system. After all, the horizontal view is a peak on the side of the ridge, and the height of the distance is different.
In battery materials, the change in the performance of the cathode material has a significant effect on the improvement of battery energy density. The direction of the development of the cathode is to improve the stability of the battery while improving the energy density.
The story of lithium iron phosphate and lithium ternary catching up with each other will not be more. Speaking of the next generation of cathode technology direction, in addition to the lithium manganese iron phosphate we talked about yesterday may achieve large-scale mass production in the second half of this year or next year, ultra-high nickel ternary batteries will also be the "hope of the whole village", such as NCM811, and even NCM9 series, which will raise the battery capacity density to a grade. At the same time, in order to achieve the stability of the battery, cell single crystallization (structural stability) is a good choice.
Comparison of different cathode battery materials
If King Ning claims to be second on the road of high nickelization, no one dares to call himself first. Because of the deep binding of Ning Wang, Ronbay Technology became the first place on the high nickel ternary cathode (market share of 35%). Last year, the proportion of high-nickel batteries in Ningwang's installed capacity also increased to 30%. In the future, as the hive and BYD move closer in this direction, the shipment of high-nickel batteries is expected to grow rapidly. The author expects that for at least 5 years, this place will be a place of contention for soldiers.
Third, the dark horse players, can they stand out from the crowd
In addition to mainstream technology, of course, we also have to pay attention to some dark horse players.
The first to appear is the solid-state battery, because of its high energy density, high safety advantages to become the "children of tomorrow", but still in the laboratory stage, Japan on the road of industrialization started early, the largest number of patents, the current relatively fast. There have been gimmicks of large-scale mass production of solid-state batteries on the market before, but they are actually only semi-solid, just listen to it. According to the plans of major battery players, it is not too late to see this track in two years.
The second is a sodium-ion battery. See also Ning Wang, who has released the first generation of sodium-ion batteries, is expected to form a basic industrial chain in 2023. The author's view has always been firm, sodium-ion batteries want to face and lithium electronic batteries PK, almost no chance of winning. There are many opportunities to change tracks (such as low-speed electric vehicles, energy storage systems) and fight again.
Finally, the author would like to say that the photovoltaic circle next door, HJT, Topcon and other new technologies have been rolled into the sky, the power battery circle is not idle at all, the technology upgrade has opened a new round of boom in the past two years, and a new technology of crazy cool hanging and exploding sky has appeared in the center of the stage. But cool is cool, in the end, it is still dependent on strength to speak, and achieving fame and fortune is the king.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.