Minutes of the 2022 Electric Vehicle 100 People Meeting

This article is based on publicly available materials and is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.

Draw the point

1. From the policy (double carbon) and sales side, the general trend of electrification is fully affirmed, and it is expected that the penetration rate of electric vehicles will exceed 50% by 2030.

2. Academician Ouyang Minggao put forward key technical issues in the development of electric vehicles

1) Battery problems: material costs, supply chain, new system batteries, battery recycling and utilization;

2) Charging problems: charging facilities, charging load, high-power fast charging technology, green power problems, vehicle network interaction, etc.;

3) Hydrogen fuel cells and heavy-duty truck electrification development issues: cost and life, on-board hydrogen storage, hydrogen refueling stations, etc.;

4) Electric drive chassis platform problems: dedicated electric chassis, battery and chassis integration, motor-electronic control-transmission three-in-one drive axle and distributed drive, new skateboard chassis and non-load-bearing body, etc.;

5) Common basic device problems: chips, materials (membranes, carbon brazing dimensions, catalysts);

6) Electric vehicle after-sales service system: maintenance, insurance, used car value, etc.

3. Wu Kai, chief scientist of the Ningde era, proposed three major technical directions

1) Efficient group technology: The system weight, energy density and volume energy density of the third-generation CTP technology (Kirin Battery) were launched to continue to lead the industry at the highest level. Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of the Kirin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared with the 4680 system.

The weight energy density of LFP battery system ≥ 160Wh/kg, and the volumetric energy density ≥ 290Wh/L

NCM battery system weight energy density ≥ 250Wh/kg, volume energy density ≥ 450Wh/L

2) No heat diffusion technology - improve the safety performance of new energy vehicle battery systems

In September 2020, CATL took the lead in achieving heat-free diffusion on 811 products, and some car companies and battery companies have launched their own heat-free diffusion technologies, and the current heat-free diffusion technology has become the mainstream of the industry. The heat-free diffusion technology with higher specific energy of 1000km in the Ningde era will achieve mass production in 2023.

Here, we believe that it is good for One Stonecom's flame retardant materials business.

3) Combined power exchange overall solution

For end users: separation of vehicle and electricity, reduce the cost of first purchase of electric vehicles, and select the number of battery packs according to actual travel needs, which is more economical;

For car companies: the model can be adapted to the standard battery pack, no need to independently invest in the construction of a replacement power station, and can share the power exchange network;

For power exchange operators: the power station can be compatible with different levels and different brand models, and the economy is more secure;

For social resources: infrastructure is shared, avoiding the repeated investment of social resources, such as land, electricity, etc., and avoiding the problem of insufficient utilization.

4. Guoxuan Hi-Tech (Chairman Li Jian)

1) Guoxuan established an annual output of 400,000 tons of anode material graphitization project in Inner Mongolia, we are completely able to power supply, 400,000 tons of graphitization project to 4 billion kWh of electricity.

2) Guoxuan invested in lithium resources in Yichun and communicated with Secretary Yu Xiuming, who by 2025, they will form a 500,000 tons of lithium resource development in Yichun to end the shortage of lithium resources in China.

5. BYD (Wang Chuanfu)

1) Hope to clarify the preferential policies for new energy vehicles in the post-subsidy era.

2) Insist on pure electric and plug-in hybrid "two legs" to walk.

3) Adhere to lithium iron phosphate as the right development path.

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1. Electrification trend

The dual-carbon policy accelerates electrification and the transformation of new energy sources. 21 years EV passenger car carbon emissions of 70.6g / km, fuel passenger cars of 170g / km, is expected to peak carbon in passenger cars in 25 years, 30 years after considering V2G trams began to become negative carbon emission units, 35 years EV compared with fuel vehicle carbon emissions fell by 74%. (The author is Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Sales: 6.75 million units were sold worldwide in 2021, up 108% year-on-year. Among them, 2.338 million units in Europe, an increase of 66%, the United States nearly 670,000 units, an increase of 101.31%, China's new energy vehicle sales of 3.521 million units, production and sales increased by 160%. The number of new energy vehicles in the world exceeded 15 million, with a cumulative promotion of nearly 18 million, and a cumulative promotion of 9 million in China.

Penetration rate: In 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe is 16.5%, the penetration rate of passenger cars in Germany is 23.4%, the penetration rate of passenger cars in The United Kingdom is 15.7%, and the penetration rate of France is 14.8%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China was 13.4%, and the single-month market penetration rate basically showed month-by-month growth, reaching a high of 19.1% in December, of which the penetration rate of the passenger car market exceeded 20% for the first time, and the penetration rate in the first two months of 2022 hit a new high in the same period. New energy vehicle sales are expected to grow to 50% of total vehicle sales in 2030. In the future, it will be higher than the proportion of fuel vehicle sales.

2. Technology-related

Existing achievements

High nickel ternary cathode and silicon/carbon composite anode materials were successfully developed and verified, and 300Wh/kg power batteries were mass-produced and installed;

The energy density of the hybrid solid-liquid battery unit reaches 360Wh/kg, and the cycle life is 1000 times;

Carried out a forward-looking study of lithium nickel manganese oxide power battery with a monomer 4.5V.

The third generation of semiconductor motor controllers realize mass production applications, realize a significant reduction in controller volume and weight, and peak efficiency can reach more than 99%.

Battery systems are increasingly dense. In 21 years, the energy density of the ternary system reached 206Wh/kg, and the energy density of the lithium iron phosphate system reached 167.4Wh/kg. Battery costs are gradually decreasing, and the battery costs in 2017-2021 are 1.43, 1.17, 1.02, 0.89, and 0.84 yuan / Wh, respectively. The power of the electric drive system has been continuously improved, and the peak power of the electric drive system of pure electric passenger cars has reached 103 kW in 21 years.

The key technical issues of new energy development

The author is Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

3. Ningde related

Speaker: Chief Scientist of CATL

With the acceleration of global electrification and the overall acceleration of electric vehicle penetration, the TWh era may arrive before 2025.

There are still many pain points in the user side of new energy vehicles, and the Ningde era solves the user mileage anxiety, safety anxiety, charging anxiety, winter power loss anxiety, low residual value anxiety, etc. through "efficient group technology", "heat-free diffusion technology", "combined power exchange overall solution", etc., to help the comprehensive electrification process.

1) Efficient group technology

User mileage anxiety: New energy vehicle consumers pursue long mileage, and long mileage should have both economic problems

Solution: Efficient grouping technology solves the problem of mileage anxiety, and the combination of different chemical systems takes into account the economy.

The system weight, energy density and volumetric energy density of catheter era launched the third generation of CTP technology (Kirin battery) continue to lead the industry at the highest level. Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of the Kirin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared with the 4680 system.

User safety anxiety: Closed building spaces, such as garages, underground parking lots, air defense bunkers, etc., smoke exhaust is slow, the line of sight is poor, and the rescue is difficult, which requires the battery system to have better safety performance.

Solution: The battery does not diffuse heat to reduce the hazard of flue gas after thermal runaway; the smoke extraction system is designed according to the amount of thermal runaway gas produced in the building.

Car companies have continuously improved their requirements for battery thermal diffusion, and non-thermal diffusion has become a common requirement for the safety of battery systems in car companies. In 2019, 50% of customers in the CATL era have no requirements for thermal diffusion; in 2020, more than 80% of customer requirements are consistent with the national standard, that is, the thermal diffusion time is not less than 5 minutes, and only 14% of customers require that the system does not undergo thermal diffusion; in 2021, the safety requirements of customers have been completely changed, and 86% of customers have requested that the battery pack does not have thermal diffusion.

The government attaches great importance to the safety of new energy vehicle battery systems, and is determined to increase the thermal diffusion requirements from the perspective of mandatory standards and significantly raise the safety threshold. Last week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the key points of the 2022 automobile standardization work, clearly proposing to start the revision of the power battery safety standard to improve the level of thermal runaway warning and safety protection.

Advantageous enterprises have taken the non-thermal diffusion as the design standard and achieved the goal of non-thermal diffusion of battery systems by building multi-level safety protection technology. In September 2020, CATL took the lead in achieving heat-free diffusion on 811 products, and some car companies and battery companies have launched their own heat-free diffusion technologies, and the current heat-free diffusion technology has become the mainstream of the industry. The heat-free diffusion technology with higher specific energy of 1000km in the Ningde era will achieve mass production in 2023.

For social resources: infrastructure is shared, avoiding the repeated investment of social resources, such as land, electricity, etc., and avoiding the problem of insufficient utilization