When the Lakers traded almost all of their trading assets from the Wizards for Russell Westbrook, many doubted whether he, along with the Big Three of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, could bring a championship to Los Angeles. But even the most extreme skeptics probably could not have foreseen such a situation today.
The 2021-22 regular season is entering the final stages of the season, and the championship fever before the start of the season is struggling to secure a play-off spot. And it seems that the situation is not optimistic.
Zhan Huanglun Huli fight pelicans?
In the early hours of this morning, the Lakers updated their injury report, announcing that LeBron James was absent from today's home game against the 76ers due to a sore left knee. Coincidentally, two months ago, also in the away game against the 76ers, James broke out of a left knee injury for the first time and missed five games in a row.
At that injury stop, there were two voices in the outside world, most fans were worried about James's health, but a few people mocked James for "selective avoidance". So this time again again against the 76ers, is James a knee injury recurrence? Or is it deliberately avoiding Harden and Embiid?
For the latter guess, I can only say that I thought too much. The Lakers have indeed encountered difficulties this season, so that James often feels helpless and powerless, but as the league's top card, the top two superstars in history, if you want to say that he chose to rest because of cowardice in health conditions, no one will believe it. What's more, just two days ago, James just cut a big triple-double with 38 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists, leading the team to beat the sixth-place Cavaliers in the East, and there was no question of who to fear.
As for the previous kind of concern, it is not necessary. James's left knee was first problematic, which had caused a lot of concern, but it turned out to be a strained injury that could be relieved by resting. Although today's game is not back-to-back, considering James's age and the fact that the last game played more than 40 minutes, taking a break is also a normal choice.
It is particularly noteworthy that after playing the 76ers today, the Lakers will not usher in the next game until next Monday, against the Pelicans, who are currently ranked tenth in the West. As of today, the Lakers are 31 wins and 41 losses, one win ahead of the Pelicans (30 wins and 42 losses), Monday's game will be a key card battle, a top two, so this rotation will allow James to get a full break of 5 days, with the fullest state to fight the Pelicans.
They need to worry more about spurs
The Lakers and Pelicans are currently ranked next to each other, and it's understandable to aim at each other. But in fact, even if the Lakers lose to the Pelicans in the "card battle", the ranking of the two teams is reversed, it still does not affect their qualification for the playoffs, and they also have to win two games in a row to catch the playoff final train, the difference is only the home advantage when the two teams directly encounter.
Relatively speaking, the Lakers should be more worried about the Spurs, who are currently ranked 11th in the West.
The Lakers lost to the 76ers today, dropping to 31-42, but because the Pelicans didn't play (30-42), they continued to rank ninth in the West with a half-win margin. At the same time, the Spurs beat the Blazers at home, improving their record to 29 wins and 44 losses, only 2 games behind the Lakers. Based on the current situation in the Western Conference standings, the last two play-offs will basically be decided between the Lakers, Pelicans and Spurs.
The gap between the 2 wins is not big, and it is not too small to say that it is too small, after all, there are only 9 games left in the regular season. However, considering the contrast between the two sides' status and schedule, the Lakers are far from having peace of mind.
The Lakers have won just four games since All-Star Weekend, and counting today's loss to the 76ers, the total record is 4-11. Of those four wins, two were thanks to James' 50+ performance (against the Warriors and Wizards), one was won in overtime by means of Westbrook's incredible key three-pointer (Raptors), and the recent victory over the Cavaliers, James also tried his best to win a big triple-double, and he had to take a break without a round after playing....
To put it simply, in the absence of thick eyebrows, it is difficult for the Lakers to win the game in a normal state, combined with the next Devil schedule, it is decided that the Lakers will have a high probability of winning less or losing more in the remaining 9 games.
On the other hand, although the overall performance of the Spurs this season is not ideal, under the tutelage of the veteran coach Popovich, the young players in the team are improving every day, and as a whole, there is no lack of organization and discipline. Today's win over the Blazers is their fifth win in the last nine games, while the previous four wins were won by the Warriors, Jazz, Thunder and Lakers.
The Spurs are 19th in the league in terms of difficulty over the remaining schedule, with an overall winning percentage of only 49.3 percent. Before the end of the regular season, they have to play the Blazers twice, one against the Rockets, and all three games should be won without incident. In addition, their remaining 6 opponents are the Pelicans, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Warriors and Lone Rangers, these games are not easy to play, if the Spurs play well enough to win half of them, it will pose a very big threat to the Lakers' playoff qualification.
According to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, as of today, the Lakers have only an 8 percent chance of making the playoffs, far less than several other teams expected to represent the West in the playoffs — such as the Timberwolves (93 percent), Clippers (70 percent) and Pelicans (27 percent).
According to The Ringer's Odds Machine data forecast, the Lakers' chance of qualifying for the playoffs is 82%, 33% ahead of the Spurs, and with the Lakers losing today and the Spurs win, the gap between the two sides will be further narrowed, narrowing to a "distance" that cannot be regarded as safe.
These games the Lakers can't lose
The Lakers and Spurs played a 2-2 draw in four regular season encounters, but on the record against the Western conference team, the Spurs led the Lakers (16 wins and 27 losses) by 3 wins, so if the two teams finally tied the record, the Spurs would squeeze the Lakers behind.
The Lakers have the second most difficult schedule in the league, with an overall winning percentage of 56.2%, including two games against the Pelicans, two games against the Nuggets, and five other games against the Lone Rangers, Jazz, Suns, Warriors and Thunder. Of all these games, only the Home Game against the Thunder on April 9 can be called easy.
In addition, in 9 games, there are only 3 home games, but there are 6 away games to play, and there are two back-to-back schedules, one "6 days and 4 games", which is also a huge test for the only Lakers in the league with an average age of more than 30 years old.
As mentioned earlier, the Spurs' reasonable record expectation for the remaining 9 games is 5 wins and 4 losses, or even 6 wins and 3 losses, which means that their final record may be 34 wins or 35 wins, and the Lakers must be ahead of the Spurs in order to ensure the top ten rankings in the West and participate in the playoffs.
Therefore, the Lakers' last 9 games may have to win 5 games to be safer, at least, 3 wins.
Then the game against the Thunder, of course, must not be lost, and the two games with the Pelicans must be won at least one - this is not because the outcome of the two games is directly related to each other's ranking, but compared to other opponents, the Pelicans are still better to play.
Other 6 games against the Lone Rangers, Jazz, Nuggets (twice), Suns, warriors, the Lakers can only be based on fighting, can win one is one.
It's ironic: James criticized the format last year because the Lakers had to play in the seventh place in the West, and even argued that the person who designed the playoff should be fired. Now, the Lakers are counting on the play-offs as a life-saving straw so that their season does not fail completely. They may even not be able to grasp this straw....
Below is a detailed schedule for the remainder of the Lakers' regular season, where every game is crucial.