"The Ukraine crisis breeds two black swans, and China will lose both ends if it is not careful"

The Russo-Ukrainian War brought opportunities, challenges and choices to China

✪ Huang Jing

Distinguished Professor of Shanghai Overseas Chinese University

At present, the Russo-Ukrainian war is in a state of stalemate. But with the Refusal of the United States and NATO to intervene directly, Russia, with its crushing military superiority, should be able to control the situation, thereby achieving the basic goal of dismantling Ukraine, wreaking havoc on its military power, and cutting off its path to NATO. Although the situation is not yet clear, the Russo-Ukrainian war has already brought about major changes in the world pattern.

How will this change affect China? Two tit-for-tat views have emerged on this. First, this is another major strategic opportunity for China since 9/11. Second, it is believed that this poses a serious challenge to China. The author believes that the opportunities brought to China by the Russo-Ukrainian War are far greater than the challenges, but how to deal with them is the key.

▍ Opportunities in China

First of all, the Russo-Ukrainian war has pulled the world's major powers such as the United States, Europe, and Russia into the Ukrainian trap. China, which is outside the trap, has become the target of competition (for different reasons). As long as China insists on not being drawn into the trap, it has the initiative.

Second, the Ukraine trap exacerbates the inherent contradictions in the Biden administration's "outcompete" China strategy. On the one hand, the Biden administration has continued the strategic contraction of the Trump era, intending to concentrate on "winning" China. To this end, even if they endure the "Kabul moment", they are determined to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Biden administration recognizes that it is difficult for the United States alone to "win" China, and only by building a global alliance led by the United States can it suppress China in an all-round way. But the strategic nature of the "revitalization alliance" is expansionary. The contradiction between strategic contraction and expansion has created a gap between the strategic will and ability of the United States, resulting in the obvious phenomenon of "insufficient strength". After the Formation of the Ukraine Trap, the United States must do its utmost to suppress Russia out of its security interests, moral responsibilities, and hegemonic credibility. To this end, the Biden administration has had to reallocate its strategic resources, thus further widening the gap between U.S. strategic will and strategic capability.

Third, the Ukraine trap creates a dilemma for U.S. China policy. Not long ago, in his State of the Union address, Biden unexpectedly did not deliberately attack China. This has led some to believe that as long as China sided with the United States as it did after 9/11, the history of Sino-American reconciliation would repeat itself. This is wishful thinking. After all, in today's "century-long great changes," Sino-US relations and even the entire world situation are completely different from the situation on 9/11. However, the Russo-Ukrainian war did present the United States with a dilemma: on the one hand, the United States could take advantage of the unprecedented unity of the West to increase pressure on China; on the other hand, if it used too much force, it might completely push China into Russia's side. Clearly, the United States has yet to find a balance between effectively pressuring China and avoiding a complete alliance between China and Russia. The fierce partisanship and polarization in American politics, coupled with the upcoming midterm congressional election, have made the Biden administration's choice in the dilemma even more difficult.

Fourth, the current "same hatred" between the United States and Europe is largely caused by anger and fear, and has not resolved the fundamental conflict of interest between the United States and Europe on the Ukraine issue. After all, in Europe's view, the EASTward expansion of NATO led by the United States is the initiator of the "Ukraine trap", but Europe has to bear the price for it. With the freeze-frame of the situation and the recovery of rationality, the continued security threat and the heavy cost of "sanctions" will inevitably cause the conflict of interests between Europe and the United States to continue to ferment – in fact, the contradictions between the United States and Europe have begun to emerge. From the perspective of the general trend of development in the long run, with the development of the world pattern toward multipolarity, land power countries such as Germany and France and Europe under their leadership are the only choice to pursue strategic autonomy if they want to get rid of the security dilemma and seek continued development.

Fifth, the Russo-Ukrainian war has reduced India's expectations and enthusiasm for the "Indo-Pacific strategy." India's main security concerns lie in the Asian hinterland in the north (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia and even the Middle East). India's security concerns in the region have skyrocketed since Afghanistan's withdrawal, while U.S. influence in the region has plummeted. On the seas, India's security concerns lie in the Indian Ocean, while the United States is bent on maintaining hegemony in the Western Pacific. As the misalignment of security interests between the United States and India has further widened, India has sought more pragmatic and rational cooperation with Russia in geopolitics, national security and energy supply. At the same time, the Russo-Ukrainian war led to a sharp increase in The strategic value of Europe to the United States, compared with a significant decline in the strategic value of India. Since the Ukraine crisis, India's "non-aligned" neutrality has been so resolute that the United States has even threatened to impose sanctions on India.

Sixth, Russia's "great power counterattack" and U.S. refusal to intervene directly have had a "profound and long-lasting" impact on Southeast Asian countries. Coupled with China's ability to play outside the "trap" and the ballast stone role of Southeast Asian economic development, it has made Southeast Asian countries more resolute in refusing to choose sides between China and the United States.

▍ Risks and challenges

However, there are also potential risks and challenges among the opportunities. First of all, the Ukraine crisis has caused a clear "image contrast" between China and Russia in international affairs. On the one hand, the Russo-Ukrainian war confirmed Russia's image as a "saboteur" in international affairs. On the other hand, despite the efforts of the United States and the West to "demonize" China, China has always been committed to peaceful development, pursuing multilateralism, promoting global governance, promoting the construction of the "Belt and Road" and the community with a shared future for mankind, and establishing China's image as a "builder" in international affairs. Such stark international image contrasts increase the risks and complexities of China's policies in the Ukraine crisis. If you are not careful, you will be pushed into a trap.

Second, the whole world, especially the West, regards the perception of "China and Russia as one" is difficult to change. Not only is there a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination between China and Russia, but Putin attended the Winter Olympics before the outbreak of the war and issued a lengthy joint statement with China. What is of great strategic significance is that under the deliberate suppression and "sanctions" of the United States, a common interest has been formed between China and Russia on the basis of mutual assistance in security and complementarity in the economy. On the other hand, in order to effectively control the Sino-US "competition" provoked by the United States and maintain the external security environment that is indispensable for China's sustainable development, China must maintain good and stable relations with all countries in the world, especially European countries. Today, when the United States and Europe have formed an anti-Russian united front, how to not harm their own fundamental interests while maintaining stable foreign relations is an extremely serious challenge. The slightest slip of the trade-off can lead to a gap between the two ends.

Finally, the Ukraine crisis has bred two kinds of "black swans". One is caused by the time factor. On the one hand, the "post-Putin era" will come sooner or later, and the possibility of Putin's successor making a reversal strategic choice cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, judging from the current situation, the Democratic Party led by Biden will suffer a setback in this year's midterm elections, which will not only make Biden lame in advance, but also make it extremely difficult for him to be re-elected in 2024. Once the White House changes hands in 2024, especially the Election of Trump-like figures, the "Nixon Phenomenon" is likely to occur between the United States and Russia.

The second is caused by a sudden change in the situation. As things stand, whether Putin can achieve his strategic goals or not, the situation in Europe has undergone fundamental changes. If Russia wins, a more confident and more secure Russia may have a greater compromise on the policy of the United States and Europe, and the United States and Europe may also be willing to make some kind of deal with Putin under the premise of accepting reality, so as to achieve the purpose of stabilizing the situation, and the United States can thus withdraw from the "Ukraine trap". If Russia is defeated, some kind of compromise with the West may be more likely.

▍ Choice and response

In a situation where opportunities and challenges coexist, or even crises are born in opportunities, the right choice and response is the key to seizing opportunities and avoiding (and overcoming) challenges.

It must be noted that the anti-Russian forces have not unified the world. In addition to the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia and other countries resolutely anti-Russian, other important political sectors in the world - China, India, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East - have maintained a neutral or wait-and-see position to varying degrees. In the extreme sanctions launched by the United States and Europe against Russia in an all-round and social manner, most countries have adopted a position of not participating in or reacting passively. Even the anti-Russian camp is by no means monolithic. The differences between the United States and Europe are obvious, not only because Europe has lost more in the lose-lose sanctions, but more importantly, there are fundamental differences in the positions and paths between the United States and Europe in the way out of the predicament: the United States advocates continuous confrontation and control of Europe while suppressing Russia; Europe wants to get out of the predicament through negotiation and compromise and maintain peace with "institutionalized agreements". The different positions of the international community on the Ukraine crisis have provided a smooth space for China's choice and response.

At the same time, you must also see your own weight and advantages. The fundamental reason why the United States continues to exert pressure on China, and even threatens to use "large-scale sanctions" to force China to choose a side, is not only because of China's strength, but also because China has the "power of example.". If China follows the United States in opposing Russia, it will not only greatly expand the anti-Russian camp, but also greatly bless the "leadership position" of the United States. Because of this, until the situation is completely clear, maintain concentration, maintain the right to choose, and maintain the initiative - this should be the best choice.

Moreover, through continuous fine-tuning, China has formed a set of orderly response methods. First, uphold the principles of the Charter of the United Nations and the inviolability of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Condemn the war and call on all parties concerned to resolve the issue through peaceful negotiations. This is a programmatic position. Secondly, it is emphasized that cold-war mentality and cold-war behaviour are the root causes of this catastrophe. After the end of the Cold War, NATO, as a military security organization, did not disappear like the Warsaw Pact, but continued to expand eastward under the guidance of the Cold War mentality – this is a typical Cold War behavior. A Russia squeezed into a corner eventually reacted violently in the strongest. Therefore, the Cold War mentality must be abandoned and the Cold War behavior must be put to an end. Third, actively support the good offices of the peace talks led by Europe (Germany and France). Support the "Normandy model" — negotiations between France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine — to resolve the issue. Fourthly, maintain normal and good relations with Ukraine and actively provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. This not only serves the interests of China and Ukraine, but also shows the world China's neutral position in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Now it seems that this set of response policies is just and rational and can stand. But in the long run, China should make efforts in the following areas.

First of all, we must make full use of the current dilemma of the United States in its China policy and actively engage in dialogue and exchanges with the Biden administration. Especially in economic and trade exchanges, maintaining financial stability, maintaining regional stability including the South China Sea, and stopping hostile language and actions, China should put forward its own demands to the United States, even if it cannot change the pattern of Sino-US "competition", it must strive to maintain Sino-US relations on a controllable basis.

Second, it is necessary to increase investment in Europe and actively strengthen exchanges with Europe. For China and the United States, the Russo-Ukrainian war has greatly enhanced the strategic value of Europe. Although it seems that the United States and Europe share the same hatred and hatred, the contradictions in the fundamental interests of the two sides will persist for a long time. China should actively seek cooperation with the EU and welcome a united and prosperous Europe. After all, the stability and benign development of China-EU relations are of great strategic significance to China's peaceful development and even to the peace and stability of the entire world.

Third, from the overall situation, the Ukrainian crisis is like a game of Go in which "robbery" is played. Smart chess players will catch the opponent to actively "layout" the momentum when the "robbery" entanglement. Due to the existence of the Ukraine trap, the strategic focus of the United States on Central Asia, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and even Latin America will decline, which provides Space for China to "layout".

Finally, we must seize the opportunity to actively "stabilize the periphery." As mentioned earlier, the Russo-Ukrainian war has lowered India's expectations for the "Indo-Pacific strategy" and strengthened the position of Southeast Asian countries not to choose sides between China and the United States. Even Japan's position has changed subtly. On the surface, Japan actively follows the United States to "sanction" Russia, and some politicians even threaten to "deploy" nuclear weapons in Japan. But this is not so much due to a hardening of positions as it is out of fear. After all, one of Japan's long-standing major concerns has been that it "will never be an enemy of China and Russia at the same time." Moreover, Japan also has high dependence and expectations on Russia's energy. As long as China is careful and properly grasped, the Russo-Ukrainian war can actually be an opportunity for China and Japan to improve relations.

This article was originally published in Critical Transition, reproduced from "Studies on the U.S. and Pacific Regions." Welcome to share personally, media reprint please contact the copyright owner.