Straight News: What observations do you have about Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest televised speech?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I have noticed that before Putin's speech, the Russian side has come up with a new Plan for Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, the core of which is that if Ukraine declares itself a neutral country and is willing to retain a limited armed force, the Russian army will cease fire and withdraw. Obviously, Putin stressed in his speech that although the Russian army is close to Kiev and other Ukrainian cities, it has no plan and purpose to occupy Ukraine, which is obviously a gesture of overtures to Ukraine, hoping that Ukraine can accept the peace talks put forward by the Russian side.
We can also see from this that since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia has not only shown a strong willingness to negotiate, but also its terms for peace talks have gradually decreased, from the initial demand that Ukraine lay down its arms and surrender completely, that is, de-militarization and de-Nazismization, to the later must recognize Crimea as part of Russia, the independent status of the two eastern Regions must be recognized, and the Constitution must be amended to ensure that it will not join the European Union and NATO, and now only ukraine is required to remain neutral like Austria or Sweden. And can have their own army. The gradual softening of Russia's attitude and the gradual reduction of the conditions for peace talks are obviously closely related to the fact that the Russian army did not go well on the battlefield, failed to win Ukraine quickly and quickly, and even the war fell into a state of stalemate. This also confirms the saying that you should not want to get something that you can't get on the battlefield at the negotiating table.
In addition, Putin also focused his speech on condemning US economic sanctions and ensuring the stability of the domestic economy and people's livelihood. Obviously, this is because the current front facing Russia is not only one, in addition to the Russian-Ukrainian military front, it is also facing a diplomatic and economic war launched by the United States and NATO, as well as a resulting war to defend people's livelihood and social stability at home. I think this is also the reason why the Russian Foreign Ministry will call on Russia and the United States to return to the principle of "peaceful coexistence" during the Cold War.
Straight News: We have seen that Ukrainian President Zelenskiy also responded to Putin's appeal. How do you interpret this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I have noticed that many commentators believe that Zelenskiy's response means that the Ukrainian side has also made major concessions, and Russia and Ukraine will soon reach a peace agreement.
I don't know where this statement came from. In my opinion, the Ukrainian side not only showed no signs of concessions, but on the contrary became tougher. Because the Ukrainian side said that it is willing to give up joining NATO, this is not a concession at all, but only in the face of reality, because Ukraine's accession to NATO has always been a fake issue, and NATO cannot accept it. So what we really want to pay attention to is zelenskiy's video speech through social media. In his speech, he said that the priority tasks of the Ukrainian side in the negotiations with Russia are clear, that is, to achieve a truce, obtain security guarantees, safeguard national sovereignty, restore territorial integrity, and enable the country to obtain effective security guarantees. This also means that the terms of the peace talks offered by the Ukrainian side are, first, an immediate ceasefire by Russia, the return of Crimea and the two eastern Ukrainian states to Ukraine, and the Third, the United States and NATO to ensure their own security. In addition, earlier the Ukrainian side also proposed that it is not only necessary to hold Russia responsible for the war through the international tribunal, but also to make Russia make huge compensation to Ukraine.
In my opinion, the increasingly tough attitude of the Ukrainian side is also reflected in the fact that even if the Russian side lowers the conditions for peace talks to only ask Ukraine to remain neutral, the Ukrainian side has clearly rejected Russia's demands today.
Straight News: Are you still optimistic about the prospects for the next Russian-Ukrainian peace talks?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: As I said clearly earlier, the current situation in Russia and Ukraine has entered the stage of military decisions and politics, and the outcome of the contest between the two sides at the negotiating table depends entirely on the outcome of the contest between the two sides on the battlefield. The current war has officially fallen into a state of stalemate, which means that the contest between the two sides at the negotiating table will also be tug-of-war for a long time. You know, when the Korean War broke out, the two sides only fought and did not talk about it for one year, and then they lasted for two years while fighting. Although the time for Russia and Ukraine to talk while fighting will not drag on for several years, it will definitely not be so fast, and it depends on how long the military and national strength of Russia and Ukraine can be consumed, whether there will be a situation in which one side cannot support it, and if such a situation arises, then the two sides can quickly reach an agreement.
The author 丨 Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcasting hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"