In the blink of an eye, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered the 19th day, the window of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks has not been closed, and it is expected that the fourth round of negotiations will open today.
In the past few days, the Russians have opened several humanitarian corridors in Ukraine to facilitate the retreat of Ukrainians, but they have also intensified their bombing in the Ukrainian Mariupol, Kiev and Lviv regions. The Lviv region directly borders Poland, which makes NATO very angry, because NATO and the Ukrainian army have held many military exercises in the region, the region is an important military base for Ukraine, and it is not excluded that the weapons aided by NATO to Ukraine are the Lviv region that entered through Poland, and Russia has warned NATO earlier that any weapons that aid Ukraine may become the target of Russian troops.
According to foreign media reports on March 14, US officials revealed to the Financial Times and the New York Times that Russia is requesting Chinese side to provide military support to Russia due to insufficient supplies of certain weapons and ammunition.
But Western economist Alasdale McLeod said it didn't make sense, it seemed more like CIA disinformation, and I couldn't figure out what China's motives were for dragging it in.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington said Sunday that "never heard" moscow asked Beijing for military equipment.
At present, the fourth round of talks between Russia and Ukraine may normally move towards practical issues, and Zelenskiy's task to the delegation is to facilitate a meeting between Zelenskiy and President Putin as soon as possible, which has always been Zelenskiy's desire, that is, to meet Putin directly to talk about the issue between Russia and Ukraine.
What is the current international pressure on Russia?
First, the good news is that the Turkish foreign minister said that Turkey will not join the Western sanctions against Russia, which is not surprising, because Turkey also imports Russian energy, and Russia's natural gas pipelines also have transit through Turkey, if Turkey sanctions Russia, it will inevitably lead to its own losses.
Second, the Attitude of the United States and Britain towards Russia remains tough, with Britain warning that Russia is imposing a remote blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea coast and restricting Ukraine's access to maritime trade, and there are signs that Russia is encircling Odessa. However, Odessa is a base that the Ukrainian Navy can use, and since Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine, I am afraid that it will inevitably attack Odessa.
Third, France and Germany still maintain contact with Putin and do not want to completely sever relations with Russia on the energy issue, but the EU's influence on European affairs is basically controlled by the United States, and at present, Russia has long been unable to hold out any hope for the EU, and from the perspective of the offensive momentum of the Russian army, Putin will inevitably complete his set goals before giving up.
So, is there any new situation happening on the battlefield?
Based on the news of these two days, Russia is likely to have sent its own Orion UAV to participate in the war, but this UAV seems to be in the testing stage, if it is really put into use on the battlefield, it can also be seen that Russia is indeed stretched in the field of drones, and the best way to change this dilemma is to import.
Judging from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia lacks high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft with long voyages and attack drones with bomb-carrying strike capabilities, and these two types of UAVs can actually play a great role in the Ukrainian battlefield. Attack drones have the same advantages as helicopter gunships against tanks, while high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft can eliminate targets that threaten the Air Force to a greater extent, which will reduce fighter wear and tear. After all, Russian fighter jets have been shot down in Ukraine, which shows that the Russian military's understanding of the situation on the ground is not as comprehensive as imagined.
In addition, foreign satellites also filmed the movement of Russian strategic bombers. The ISI satellite detected more than 20 strategic bombers of the Russian army assembled at the Engels Air Base, where strategic bombers could fly to the direction of the Black Sea to support the russian front-line operations. As long as the Russian army can determine that the Long-range Anti-Aircraft Missile Positions of the Ukrainian Army have all been destroyed, the strategic bombers can even directly enter the territory of Ukraine to fight. The impact of strategic bombers is great, and military targets can be carpet bombed, such as those airfields that have been damaged by ballistic missiles but have not been completely paralyzed, and strategic bombers can completely solve the problem in the air.
On the Ukrainian side, countries such as the United States, Britain and NATO are also giving Ukraine more aid, including in the economic and military fields, and without NATO's help, Ukraine may really not be able to hold out for so long. All kinds of man-portable anti-aircraft missiles, coupled with anti-tank weapons, do pose a great threat to the Russian fighters, helicopters, armored vehicles, and tanks. This may also be an important reason for Russia's determination to attack aid targets, it can be said that in the next step, NATO's military equipment in Ukraine may encounter Russian military strikes.
When Ukraine's military weapons are attacked, does NATO dare to retaliate against Russia at the military level?
Obviously, as long as NATO intervenes militarily in the Ukrainian battlefield, it means that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will evolve into a conflict between NATO and Russia, and Russia may use tactical nuclear bombs at any time in the face of the threat of the entire NATO, because Russia's conventional military forces cannot be NATO's opponents. Think of NATO's hundreds of stealth fighters, various air-to-air missiles, powerful supplies, and strong long-range strike capabilities, if Russia is not ruthless in the early stage, then the strategic target may soon be eliminated by NATO.
Therefore, NATO cannot move Russia, and the conflict between NATO and Russia is likely to turn into a nuclear war, and in the field of nuclear military, Russia is not inferior to NATO. Whether it is an attack from the air or on land or even the seabed, Russia has no shortage of equipment to carry nuclear weapons, Tu-160 bombers, the North Wind God, Salmat, any one of which is enough for NATO to drink a pot.
Of course, NATO does not lack these weapons, the United States has B-52H, there are stealth strategic bomber B-2, the United States also has a variety of nuclear submarines under the sea, Ohio-class nuclear submarines are not jealous, roadbed nuclear weapons The United States also has militia three, and sea-based nuclear weapons also have tridents. In addition to the United States, britain and France also have sea-based nuclear forces.
Imagine if a large-scale conflict broke out between the two sides, how many blows could Germany, Lithuania, Poland, Estonia, and so on in europe withstand? What may be even more comical is that once Russia uses nuclear weapons, the United States may immediately seek peace, and the Eu will properly become cannon fodder.
Will Ukraine meet the conditions for Russia's withdrawal?
It has to be said that Russia's conditions are actually very harsh, russia wants Ukraine to promise neutrality and not to join NATO, but Russia also requires the Ukrainian authorities to recognize Donbass and Crimea, which makes it difficult for Ukraine to do it. Instead of talking about it, what Russia wants, in fact, is more necessary for Russia to completely take Ukraine.
But if Russia really annexes, then Western sanctions will definitely make Russia have a very difficult time, and it is difficult for all ukraine to be accepted by national public opinion. At present, Russia does not have the ability to operate a new Ukraine, which would drag Russia down. But if it doesn't, the struggle between Ukraine and Russia won't stop because of demilitatization, and as long as NATO continues to supply weapons, Ukraine's demilitaryization will be unrealistic.
Therefore, it is difficult to solve the problem in the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, unless Russia makes concessions. As long as Ukraine commits to neutrality and demilitarization, it is actually very beneficial to Russia, and it is not much good for Russia to force the Ukrainian authorities to step down. And sometimes think about it, NATO's eastward expansion does have a geostrategic threat to Russia, but Russia has directly crippled Ukraine, and the relationship with NATO is becoming more and more tense, whether the effect of this has been achieved, the cost is not too large, it is estimated that Putin is still different from the original idea.
First, Russia has invested a lot of troops, but the speed of advance is not fast, which may be because of the strategy of forced talks by war, but there is also the possibility of becoming hesitant because of sanctions.
Second, the West, led by the United States, the means of sanctioning Russia this time are indeed fierce enough, although Russia is an energy power, it is impossible to live on energy, but the United States is now sanctioning Russia in almost all fields, which makes Russia's other industries very miserable.
Third, now Ukraine has not been completely de-militarized, many places the Ukrainian army is still resisting, the pressure on Russia is not small, continuous sanctions, continuous turmoil, is it really a good thing for Russia?