Welcome to the column.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic began more than two years ago, our world's economy has slowly suffered a crisis. Who would have imagined that two years later, we would feel that the epidemic seems to have slowly dissipated, and many countries have begun to choose to lie flat, and as a result, the economy of our world has encountered a greater crisis. Why? This is not what I am talking about, this is the judgment made recently by the International Monetary Fund, which he believes that because of the situation in Ukraine, the economy of the whole world will get worse.
Today, the war in Ukraine is still fighting, and in the Western world led by the United States, they do not choose hot war, they dare not use force with Russia in real time, and they also know that it will trigger a world war, but they have adopted various sanctions. To tell the truth, in the past two days, we have really felt the bottom line of the Western world, and people have really sanctioned the heavens and the earth, and they have done everything to the extreme. Traditionally, seizing your assets, confiscating your wealthy yachts, and not even allowing you to do business with Russia is a paediatric.
To this day, people in the West will boycott These American companies because McDonald's Coca-Cola is still doing business with the Russians. Even two days ago, there was news that Russian cats have been boycotted, and the works of the late Russian composers can no longer be played in the United States today, but of course these resistances may not have any important impact on the Russian economy. And then that's the big move, and that's when the U.S. is discussing today whether to refuse to import Russian oil and gas.
Let's say that if this policy can be introduced, then the economic blow to the whole world will be even greater. I don't know if you pay attention to oil prices today? Two days ago, the mainland just adjusted the price of oil once, and No. 92 gasoline has exceeded 8 yuan in many cities. Since entering 2022, oil prices have been soaring, but recently they have risen a little faster, and many people have reminded you to refuel and quickly increase, maybe next time you will have to adjust again.
Why has international oil prices now soared to an outrageous state, just two days ago Brent crude oil prices once exceeded $140 a barrel, how high is this figure you know? The price adjustment of refined oil products in the mainland has a ceiling and floor price, the ceiling price is only 130 US dollars, and the price of cloth oil has exceeded the ceiling, why is it so high? Isn't this the news that the whole world is waiting for the United States?
The U.S. side said that I could refuse to import Russian crude oil and natural gas at any time and anywhere. Then once this policy is introduced, oil prices will soar further. The reason is simple, because Russia is a big oil producer, and Russia is today the world's largest exporter of natural gas and the second largest oil exporter. For a long time, Russia's oil and gas supply to all of Western Europe, and now the whole of Europe is tied to the American chariot, and it is very likely that they will have to follow in the footsteps of the United States and refuse to import Russian oil and gas. So who will fill such a big gap? Can it be made up? It's hard to make up.
The United States heard that it had privately contacted Venezuela and negotiated with Iran, saying that it could not let these two countries not deal with others before, not let others export oil, and now want them to make up for the gap left by Russia, but it is obvious that it is not enough. And if international energy prices skyrocket because Russian oil and gas cannot be exported, then the real IMF forecast is accurate, which will be an extremely huge economic blow to the world.
Oil is the lifeblood and blood of the entire economy, not that we drive people to use gasoline, you take the bus people you are actually using gasoline, you take a taxi, ride-hailing people, fly people, you are all using oil. And we have a very developed logistics industry in China today, you sit at home and don't leave home, there is a courier brother to send you express delivery, there is a takeaway brother to send you takeaway, but all the logistics industry it also relies on oil.
Not only us, the United States is more powerful than us, the United States has more than 300 million people, 200 million cars, and it is the country on wheels. The American people are crying bitterly today, and the most serious thing is how the price of gasoline has risen so fast. Previously, the price of oil in various states in the United States was different, the overall average price was 2.5 US dollars a gallon, and now it has reached 4 US dollars a gallon, and it will immediately soar to 5 US dollars.
In the past year, the American people are actually suffering from inflation, everyone thinks how prices have soared so badly, you look into the supermarket, milk, eggs, bread, bacon are all rising in price, the bottom of the United States every week for basic life spending has soared 30% to 50%.
However, everyone has a hope, saying why the price has soared before? That's because the United States printed a lot of money, the United States in order to save the epidemic, now it's good, many countries choose to lie flat, all the epidemic prevention measures are not there, the economy began to slowly recover to good, the United States no longer prints more money, and even the Federal Reserve said that he is ready to raise interest rates to beat this inflation down. To know that today's inflation in the United States is unprecedented in 40 years, but this printing of money has slowed down first, but the price of oil continues to soar, and the soaring price of oil will definitely make the price of almost all bulk goods rise, and the price of logistics will further push up the price of the United States.
So in the past, we said that the United States uses oil weapons to strike Russia, which is definitely a seven-wounded fist, killing a thousand people and losing eight hundred, but it may also be that the United States thinks that his family is a big business, and people have a thick bottom and surplus grain, so what do I fight with you Russia? Fight for the bottom of the family, I suffer losses and you also suffer losses, but I fight that your losses are much greater than mine, and you may not be able to survive.
No way, the United States is indeed the world's most economically powerful country, people have the confidence, and after the United States disrupts Europe, there will be a large number of safe-haven funds to come to the United States, the United States is equivalent to harvesting Europe, making up for its own losses. It's nothing more than a little more prices, a little more oil prices, anyway, last year has risen so much, the United States can survive.
For President Biden, he used to face a dilemma, you said not to print money, the epidemic has hit the economy too hard, the economy is not good, the stock market is falling, people must blame him for not having the ability to govern. You say printing money, the more you print the more serious the inflation, the more the people complain about the soaring prices, the more miserable.
So Biden doesn't seem to have a better plan to govern the U.S. economy, so by November this year's midterm elections are likely to usher in a big defeat for the Democratic Party, so for Biden, the current situation in Ukraine is a life-saving straw, I through the Situation in Ukraine even if the U.S. prices soar again, so I hit other countries. But such arbitrary behavior by the United States will plunge the global economy into the abyss.
Let's say Europe, the United States is a bit of a family, it can hold up. The problem facing the United States now is nothing more than a further surge in oil prices, ordinary people have to spend more money on gasoline, and the cost of living has risen. But if Europe does not let Europe buy Russian oil and gas, everyone thinks that it is not a question of high prices, but a question of whether you can buy them or not.
For a long time, taking Germany as an example, its main energy supply is Russian natural gas, it is difficult to repair nord stream 2, a Ukrainian war is coming, Nord Stream 2 will completely become a pile of garbage, and even Nord Stream 1 may be out of gas. In the past, the United States often warned Germany that you should be careful, you have been buying gas with Russia for many years, once one day you two are not dealing with it, he will cut you off your breath, won't you be in trouble? You've been kidnapped on energy.
Now it's good, the prescription given by the United States to Germany is that you don't have to wait for Russia to kidnap, you cut him off first, you don't buy him first, you follow me, just because of the Ukrainian problem Germany, you must not buy any gas and oil with Russia, so that you can starve Russia to death.
Today is a seller's market, to be honest, Russia's oil and gas is not sold to Europe, he can sell to other countries, can not sell at a high price, people can not sell at a discount can not also sell? Today's international oil prices are so high, if Russia really encounters the problem of not being able to sell oil, as long as it has a 70% discount and a 20% discount, I believe that there will be a large number of countries willing to undertake it. But on the other hand, Germany, you don't buy gas from Russia, yes, the United States promised that it doesn't matter, I can ship it to you, I coordinate Japan and South Korea to transport it to you, but can the far water quench the near thirst? For Germany, it is really a self-destructive Wall.
So to this day, no one in German politics has dared to follow the demands of the United States, not only will Europe encounter a crisis, but what else? Ukraine and Russia are also big food exporters. Ukraine we talked about, people are famous black land, Europe's big granary, Russia is also like this, Russia has been very developed in agriculture over the years, there are a large number of agricultural exports every year, the next US sanctions must be any country you can not do business with Russia, in turn, Russia also listed a list of unfriendly countries, want to do business with these countries, you have to get the approval of the Russian government, so the future global market food supply may also have problems.
On the one hand, during the war, you may have wasted food production, and you may not be able to transport it or produce it. On the other hand, future economic sanctions will block the way for Russian and Ukrainian grain exports, and global food prices will also soar. Of course, for the mainland, we are not worried about this, we have told you in previous programs that the mainland grain is absolutely autonomous. Up to now, the grain stored in grain depots in various parts of the mainland is enough for all the people to eat for two years.
But the problem is that there are a lot of poor countries in the world, weak countries and small countries, and many countries in Africa that need to import a lot of food, or because they are poorer and have less money, they are more sensitive to food prices. When international food prices rise because of the situation in Ukraine, it is a disaster for these countries. If they don't buy enough food, their people will go hungry.
So the IMF pointed out that so far, the situation in Ukraine has caused oil prices to soar, food prices to soar, gold prices to soar, if the situation deteriorates further in the future, it will seriously drag down the world economy, and even such a drag will be more serious than the impact of the new crown epidemic in the past two years.
