Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the world seems to have become less real, and all kinds of magical events have almost destroyed the stereotypes of human beings in the past few decades, and the cloud of "sports, culture, art has nothing to do with politics" has proved to be only superficial hypocrisy.
Even the whole world is forced into two schools, only two sides of the line, and even neutrality is forced into "original sin." U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warned on Tuesday local time that if Chinese companies such as SMIC ignore the export restrictions imposed by the United States on Russia and continue to cooperate with Russia, there will be "irreparable consequences."
Gina Raimondo said the U.S. could take "devastating action" against Chinese companies that do not participate in sanctions against Russia. She also claimed that the U.S. could allow these Chinese companies to "basically shut down" and that Chinese companies that violate U.S. export restrictions on Russia could be cut off from U.S. supplies of equipment and software needed to produce their products.
Even if Chinese companies circumvent export restrictions against Russia, the United States will blacklist them.
This means that if Chinese companies dare to sell to Russia products that are restricted by Western countries, they will use huawei to deal with these Chinese companies.
The deeper meaning is that under this world rule established by the supremacy of Western countries, you have only two choices: to stand on the united front with Western countries and stand against Western countries. neutrality? inexistent. Although everyone knows that the world is not black and white, now if you do not take sides, you will be falsely accused, which is the rule of the world under the power.
Back 3 years ago, on May 17, 2019, Huawei was subject to the first round of sanctions, cutting off the supply of US chips and software, and cutting off the EDA tools used in chip design. But the sanctions effect did not show immediately, and in the second quarter of 2020, Huawei beat Samsung for the first time in the case of losing the entire North American market, and briefly became the world's first with a market share of 19.6%.
A year later, Huawei was subjected to the second round of sanctions, and this time directly cut off Huawei's main artery, TSMC can not oem for Huawei, which means that the use of 5nm process of Kirin series chips can not continue to produce, HiSilicon's many chip product lines, but also by a lot of production restrictions, almost cut off the road of self-developed chips.
As a result of the repeated sanctions, on the last day of 2021, Huawei's rotating chairman Guo Ping issued a 2022 New Year's speech, which mentioned that Huawei's revenue in 2021 was about 634 billion yuan.
What is the level of 634 billion? Huawei's total revenue in 2017 was 603.6 billion yuan, while the total revenue in 2020 was about 884 billion yuan, that is, Huawei's total revenue in 2021 regressed to the level of four years ago. This downward trend is not optimistic now, which is the effect of the so-called "devastating sanctions".
Looking back at SMIC, due to the surge in demand for domestic alternatives in recent years, SMIC has brought huge development opportunities. Despite the lack of access to EUV lithography machines and the stagnation of research and development on advanced processes, SMIC has seized the market opportunity of mature processes and has grown tremendously in recent years.
On March 8, SMIC released its january-February 2022 performance data, with operating income of about US$1.223 billion (about RMB7.729 billion), an increase of 59.1% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about US$309 million (approximately RMB1.953 billion), an increase of 94.9% year-on-year.
In 2021, SMIC expects to achieve revenue of US$5.443 billion, up 39.32% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother of US$1.702 billion, up 137.81% year-on-year.
But all of this is actually built on the dependence on American equipment or technology. Among the world's top ten semiconductor equipment manufacturers, 4 are from the United States, namely Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and Teradyne.
For example, in the semiconductor process, applied materials in the ion implantation link equipment market share of 70%, the second is the United States Axcelis company, the market share of 20%, the total market share of the two companies up to 90%, the link is nanDFlash, DRAM, Logic production line of the necessary process.
In the etching link, Lam is the world's leading etching equipment, with a market share of about 45% and about 20% of applied materials accounting for about the third in the world. However, in the etching link, domestic companies have already achieved autonomy in high-end products, and the 7nm/5nm etching of Zhongwei Semiconductor has successfully entered the TSMC supply chain and been applied on the production line.
If SMIC is sanctioned, in ion implantation, film growth, chemical mechanical polishing, etching, etc., the United States equipment and technology dominate or even monopolize, the relevant links will also be the biggest challenge to SMIC. At present, domestic equipment such as the etching machine of Zhongwei Semiconductor and the thin film precipitation of North Huachuang have made good progress, but the market share is still pitifully small, and it is difficult to completely replace American equipment in the short term.
However, at present, the state has also given great support to semiconductor equipment, and domestic semiconductor equipment has also received more application opportunities in domestic fabs. According to the data of the international bidding network, among the recent 13 new projects of Yangtze River Storage, there are 1 CVD (Dutch ASM), 4 PVD (North Huachuang), 2 etching (North Huachuang), and 6 heat treatment (North Huachuang). The cumulative localization rate of Yangtze River Storage from 2017 to the present is about 16.9%, while the localization rate has increased to 22.4% since the beginning of 2021.
In addition, the localization rate of Shanghai Jita from the beginning of 2021 to the present is about 46.6%; Huali (Phase II) won the bid for a CVD of Shenyang Tuojing, which is the first time to win the bid for domestic equipment in 2021. Realizing the complete autonomy of the semiconductor industry chain is a helpless move under oppression, but it is also a must-do thing, and I believe that there will be such a day in the near future.