(Report Producer: CITIC Construction Investment Securities)
One. Deterministic analysis of the trend of integrated die casting industry
What is integrated die casting: aluminization and integration of cast body parts
Process features: through the large tonnage die casting machine to manufacture large aluminum parts, mainly refers to the integrated processing of automotive body structural parts, the original design of a number of individual, scattered small parts after redesign highly integrated, and then use the die casting machine for one-time molding die casting into a complete large parts (omit welding and assembly process). In addition, the all-in-one housing such as the three-electric system of new energy vehicles can also introduce integrated die-casting technology to achieve integrated manufacturing.
Scope of application: At present, large-scale integrated die casting is mainly suitable for passenger car body (including rear floor, front floor and front cabin) and body in white.
Trend certainty: Tesla leads, new forces follow, traditional transformation
New forces of car manufacturing: The current integrated die-casting reform is mainly applied to the development of new energy vehicles, Tesla takes the lead in adopting integrated technology, and Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal follow Tesla's layout of integrated die-casting.
Traditional car companies: The traditional "stamping + welding" model is considered to be mainstream, and the switching speed is still slower than that of new energy vehicle companies, and it takes more than half a year to make samples. In February 2022, Volvo was the first traditional car company to announce its intention to invest in the integrated die casting process.
Tesla's "integration": the back floor took the lead in mass production, reducing costs and increasing efficiency significantly
Tesla is currently the only oem that realizes the integrated die-casting mass production of the rear baseplate. On September 22, 2020, Musk introduced at the Tesla Battery Day conference that the Model Y will use a one-piece die-cast rear floor assembly, and the cast parts can be simplified from the previous 70 to 2, and may be combined into 1 piece in the future. The structural stability and weight reduction of the body have been greatly optimized, while nearly 1,000 welding processes have been reduced, saving about 20% of production costs;
The reasons for the first integrated die-casting of the rear floor are: 1) the probability of collision damage to the rear floor is small, and the safety performance requirements are slightly lower than those of other car bodies; 2) the 6000T large die casting machine can meet the manufacturing conditions of the rear floor, and the larger parts and equipment are under research; 3) The integrated die-casting floor is more rigid than the traditional welding process, which can better take into account the chassis handling performance.
New domestic forces: Weilai mass production is imminent, Xiaopeng completed the proofing
NIO integrated die casting layout: On October 18, 2021, NIO announced that it has successfully verified the development of heat-free materials that can be used to manufacture large die castings, and the new materials will be applied to nio's second-generation platform models. On December 18, NIO announced on NIODay that the rear floor-related parts of the new model ET5 will be molded in one piece, reducing the weight of the rear floor by 30% and increasing the trunk space by 11L.
Xiaopeng integrated die casting layout: Wuhan factory has joined the integrated die casting process workshop, and the Wuhan factory will introduce a set of more than one set (strip) of super large die casting island and automated production line. On January 18, Xiaopeng announced that it has signed a contract with Guangdong Hongtu for a 12,000-ton super intelligent die-casting unit, as well as key and core lightweight components such as an integrated front cabin assembly, an integrated rear floor assembly and an integrated battery tray for new energy vehicles.
Trend analysis: Lightweight and cost-effectiveness reduction demand to promote integrated die casting
Weight reduction: Tesla plans to replace the original 370-part assembly with 2-3 large die castings, which will reduce the weight by 30%.
Cost reduction: The cost of floor replacement after Tesla fell by about 20%. After the realization of the integration of the car body, the manufacturing cost was reduced by 40%.
Efficiency improvement: Model Y, which uses a one-piece die-casting rear floor assembly, replaces the original 70 parts with 1-2 large die castings, and reduces the number of solder joints from about 700-800 to 50. The manufacturing time has been reduced from 1-2 hours in the traditional process to 3-5 minutes, which can be directly supplied in the factory.
Two. Spatial and pattern analysis of each link of the industrial chain
Market space: 100 billion industrial chain, parts > materials> die casting machines > molds
Long-term: The global/Chinese market space of integrated die-casting body structural parts is expected to reach 610/175.5 billion yuan respectively; The global/Chinese market space of large-scale die casting machines is expected to reach 21.83/6.55 billion yuan respectively; the global/Chinese market space of heat-free treatment aluminum alloy materials is expected to reach 2500/75 billion yuan; and the global/Chinese market space of molds is expected to reach 18.25/5.48 billion yuan.
Core assumptions: 1) long-term die-casting technology is mature, the front cabin, front floor, rear floor, upper body structural parts are integrated die-casting, requiring 2 sets of 6000t, 1 set of 9000t, 1 set of 12000t press, the value of the single car is 12200 yuan; 2) the global passenger car sales reached 100 million units, China's passenger car sales reached 30 million, the integrated die casting penetration rate of 50%; 3) the die casting machine planning production capacity of 100,000 sets / unit, capacity utilization rate of 70%, yield 90%. The equipment replacement cycle is 10 years, and the price of 6000/9000/12000t die casting machine is 5000/7500/100 million yuan, respectively; 4) the unit price of heat-free aluminum alloy is 18 yuan /kg; 5) the mold is replaced once a year, and the unit price of the corresponding mold of the 6000t/9000t/12000t die casting machine is 500/600/7 million yuan, respectively.
Long-term: The integrated die-casting body structure has the largest market space, and the global/Chinese market space is expected to reach 610/183 billion yuan respectively; The global/Chinese market space of large die casting machine is expected to reach 21.83/6.55 billion yuan respectively; the global/Chinese market space of heat-free treatment aluminum alloy materials is expected to reach 2500/75 billion yuan; and the global/Chinese market space of molds is expected to reach 18.25/5.48 billion yuan.
In the short and medium term: It is estimated that by 2025, the market space for integrated die-cast body structural parts is expected to reach 37.67 billion yuan, CAGR = 160%; The market space of large die casting machines is expected to reach 5 billion yuan, CAGR = 90%, the market space of heat-free aluminum alloy materials is expected to reach 16.13 billion yuan, CAGR = 139%; the mold market space is expected to reach 1.09 billion yuan, CAGR = 131%. All links of the industrial chain have doubled and above the growth rate, of which the integrated die-casting body structural parts have the fastest growth rate. (Source: Future Think Tank)
In the short and medium term: new forces promote the rise of the volume, and the industrial chain grows highly
In the short and medium term: It is estimated that by 2025, the market space for integrated die-cast body structural parts is expected to reach 37.67 billion yuan, CAGR = 160%; The market space of large die casting machines is expected to reach 5 billion yuan and CAGR =90%; the market space of heat-free aluminum alloy materials is expected to reach 16.13 billion yuan, CAGR = 139%; the mold market space is expected to reach 1.09 billion yuan, CAGR = 131%.
Core assumptions: 1) Bicycle value: 2200 yuan for the front cabin, 3500 yuan for the front floor, and 2000 yuan for the rear floor; 2) mass production in the cabin before 2023, mass production of the board in 2024; 3) the permeability assumption of the total sales volume of each car company and its configuration of integrated die-casting body structural parts models; 4) the balance of production and sales of large-scale die-casting machines, the planned production capacity of the die-casting machine is 100,000 sets/unit, the capacity utilization rate and yield, the press price of 6000/9000t is 5000/75 million yuan; 5) heat-free The unit price of aluminum alloy processing is 18 yuan / kg; 6) the mold is replaced once a year, and the unit price is 6000t/9000t is 500/6 million yuan.
Die casting machine pattern: large tonnage die casting machine supply bottleneck, li jin took the lead in breaking through
The main players of large-scale die casting machines are the veteran Swiss manufacturer Bühler, the domestic listed company leading Lijin Technology, Yizumi, and Haitian Metal, a subsidiary of Haitian Group. Bühler, China LK and Haitian are manufacturers of large die casting machines with a scale of more than 6,000 tons.
Lijin Technology and its subsidiary Yidra took the lead in mass production of 6000t die casting machines and supplied teslas. According to the product introduction of the official website of Edra, there are obvious breakthroughs in the clamping force, pressure injection force, template size, and injection amount. In 2021, Lijin released a 9,000-ton large die casting machine, which will push the tonnage of the die casting machine one step further. 12000t press is being developed in cooperation with Guangdong Hongtu and other companies. Bühler released a 6100t die casting machine in early 21 years and an expected 8400t die casting machine at 22H1; Haitian Metal's 8800t die casting machine has also been completed and delivered to Meritix.
Material pattern: foreign technology is leading, and domestic technology is rapidly followed
For traditional aluminum alloys, heat treatment is an indispensable means to ensure the mechanical properties of die-cast parts, heat treatment process is easy to cause dimensional deformation and surface defects of auto parts, due to the large size of integrated die-casting parts, so the later heat treatment will produce a large degree of deformation, so it is necessary to use heat-free aluminum alloy materials.
Mold pattern: OEMs cooperate with suppliers
At present, the main ones with rapid progress in the integrated die-casting body structure mold are: Wencan Xiongbang (Wencan Co., Ltd.), Guangzhou Cavity, Ningbo Zhenzhi and Ningbo Saiweida. Among them, Guangdong Cavity has been equipped with 8800t ultra-large die casting machine integrated back floor die casting mold for Meritix, and has also signed the "12,000 tons super intelligent die casting unit joint research and development cooperation agreement" with Hongtu, Lijin and Guangdong Hongjin to jointly cooperate on the development project of 12000T (ton) super intelligent die casting unit.
The initial pattern of the midstream: OEMs and Tier1 are involved
Tesla took the lead in adopting integrated technology, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal followed Tesla layout integrated die casting, traditional OEMs such as Geely, Volkswagen and so on also have relevant admission plans. Tesla's rear floor has achieved mass production and self-production, Xiaopeng, Geely, Volkswagen, etc. also have plans to do self-made, ideal and Weilai or mainly rely on external parts manufacturers.
Midstream long-term pattern: Heavy assets and low turnover attributes lead to Tier1 dominance
In the long run, integrated die casting belongs to the field of heavy assets, die casting machine aside need a production line, to support heat treatment or machine clips and other equipment, a production line investment of nearly 100 million yuan, and the annual output capacity is only 6-8w sets. According to our calculations, when the yield rate reaches 90%, the input-output ratio is still as high as 1:2; the gross profit margin is about 37%. The fixed asset turnover rate of the main engine factory is relatively high, and the main engine factory such as GAC and the Great Wall has remained above 3 for a long time, which can be seen that its operating characteristics are not heavy assets. We believe that short-term OEMs, especially new forces such as Tesla and Xiaopeng, have personally stepped in due to supply pressure and The general maturity of Tier1 capabilities, but in the long run, integrated die-casting assets are heavier, and in the later stage, after sufficient production capacity and gradual maturity of the process, it will be dominated by Tier1.
Three. Analysis of technical barriers in each link of the industrial chain
Equipment: The increase in clamping force increases the technical difficulty, and the short-term production capacity is insufficient
The super-large die-casting machine belongs to the market gap: in the past, there was no demand for the manufacture of ultra-large die-casting machines in the market (basically < 4000 tons), and there was no historical accumulation of research and development experience.
The clamping force is greatly improved: the integrated die-casting parts are larger, requiring the clamping force of the die-casting machine to be improved, and the corresponding pressure injection system, template size, and control ability also have hard requirements; among them, the clamping force is the biggest difficulty, and the die-casting machine clamping mechanism is required to provide new design solutions.
Shortage of large die casting machine production capacity: At present, only one company, Lijin Technology, produces large die casting machines for vehicles. At present, the total production capacity of the global factory of more than 6,000 tons of large die casting technology is 6 large die casting machines per month.
Mold: Development depends on design experience, and most Tier1s do not have the ability to make their own
The design of the integrated die casting mold relies on a lot of experience and calculation experiments: due to the larger mold, the casting system, overflow system, exhaust system, cooling system, pressure regulation system, mold release ejection mechanism and other systems are different from traditional molds, and the redesign relies on first-mover experience and a large number of experiments.
Design-proofing-improvement cycle is long: After the oem is fixed, the supplier needs more than 6 months to design the mold before it can start proofing; it often takes 1-2 years for the follow-up OEMs and suppliers to cooperate to improve the mold structure.
Integrated die casting mold manufacturing requirements are higher: there are higher requirements in terms of cavity accuracy, surface quality, mold strength, mold sealing, etc.
Material: A small number of enterprises have successfully developed heat-free aluminum alloys
Heat-free materials are an inevitable choice for integrated die casting: traditional die casting aluminum alloy die castings need to be solid solution and aging heat treatment to meet the strength and toughness required for body performance. In the process of heat treatment, die castings are prone to dimensional deformation and surface defects. Integrated die-casting body structure is large in size, small in wall thickness, can not withstand the deformation caused by heat treatment, so it is necessary to develop a heat-free aluminum alloy material, after die-casting does not need to go through heat treatment to meet the mechanical properties required by body structural parts.
Process: High vacuum die casting of body structural parts with extremely strong know-how
Automakers have high requirements for integrated die-casting body structural parts and are difficult to manufacture: the production process needs to be equipped with die-casting machines with a clamping force of more than 6000T, more complex and accurate mold design, heat-free new aluminum alloy materials and mature heat-free high-vacuum die-casting processes (powerful and complete Know-how), and the technical barriers are high. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Four. Comparative analysis of the progress of enterprises in each link of the industrial chain
Equipment: The production of large die casting machines is limited, and manufacturers seek R & D breakthroughs
Industry status: At present, enterprises with more than 6,000 tons of large-scale die-casting machine manufacturing capacity are basically only Lijin Technology, Buhler, Haitian Metal, etc., and Lijin Technology models, tonnage, and order volume occupy the leading position in the industry.
Production and research progress: Affected by production capacity and research and development progress, there are fewer deliveries of large die casting machines, and the supply of die casting machines in the market is shorter than demand, and it is difficult for technology to meet the demand for integrated processing of body-in-white at this stage.
Material: The localization of heat-free aluminum alloy materials is progressing smoothly
R & D: Domestic and foreign enterprises including Alcoa, Tesla, Weilai Automobile, Lizhong Group, etc. are developing and promoting heat-free aluminum alloy materials, each of which has its own performance characteristics.
Application: Alcoa and other foreign enterprises have achieved large-scale mass production of materials, and domestic enterprises have caught up with the research and development materials and have been delivered for production and use.
Mold: with strong technical barriers, cooperative design mode is diverse
Industry trend: There are fewer enterprises that fully have the ability to make their own molds for body structural parts, and Wencan Xiongbang has opened up upstream and downstream links and has a significant first-mover advantage.
Mold design mode: the host manufacturer independent design, the processing manufacturer represented by Wen can and the professional mold manufacturer design represented by the cavity, Sevida, Zhenzhi design three modes coexist.
Excerpts from the report:
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].