Interview with Xu Lin: Although carbon neutrality is difficult to hand in the papers on time, it also gives birth to new opportunities for the industry

Compared with developed countries, China's time from "carbon peak" to "carbon neutrality" is greatly shortened, which is a great challenge for China. However, carbon neutrality will also promote the adjustment of China's energy structure, lead the transformation and innovation of new technologies, and guide the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries

Text | Caijing reporter Sun Yingni

Edit | Wang Yanchun

Since China proposed its emission reduction targets at the United Nations General Assembly on 22 September 2020, whether China can strive to achieve the "carbon neutrality" target by 2060 has been a concern for both the energy sector and industry.

According to China's proposed carbon emissions schedule, China's carbon dioxide emissions will strive to peak by 2030, that is, "carbon peak". Since then, "reducing the intensity of carbon emissions" and "stabilizing and decreasing carbon emissions after peaking" have also been written into the key work of the 14th Five-Year Plan. At the Central Economic Work Conference that ends at the end of 2020, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will also be listed as one of the eight key tasks in 2021.

Today, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have become internet buzzwords. Carbon peak target means that China's carbon dioxide emissions will no longer grow before 2030, and then slowly reduce after reaching the peak; carbon neutrality targets refer to the carbon dioxide emitted every year, which must be completely offset by various methods such as energy conservation and emission reduction to achieve zero carbon dioxide emissions.

So, can China meet the two important targets related to carbon emission reductions in 2030 and 2060 on time, and what problems remain to be solved? Caijing reporter interviewed Xu Lin, chairman of the Sino-US Green Fund, who had previously worked for a long time in the Development Planning Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and participated in the research and drafting of several five-year plans.

Xu Lin told Caijing that at present, many developed countries have achieved carbon emissions and economic decoupling, but China is still in the stage of increasing carbon emissions and has not yet reached its peak. This means that compared with developed countries, China's time from "carbon peak" to "carbon neutrality" is greatly shortened, which is a big challenge for China.

It is understood that as early as 2013, China organized a macro strategy study on China's low-carbon development in 2050, and it was predicted that China could achieve a peak of carbon dioxide emissions around 2025. That is, coal consumption has taken the lead in reaching the peak, leaving room for the development of non-fossil energy (renewable energy plus nuclear power) or low-carbon energy (non-fossil energy plus natural gas); the industrial sector has taken the lead in reaching the peak, leaving room for the increase in carbon dioxide emissions increased by other industries, especially the improvement of people's living standards; the eastern region has taken the lead in reaching the peak, leaving room for emissions for the development of the central and western regions. At the same time, the previous national commitment to the Paris Agreement's independent contribution was to peak carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and peak as soon as possible. This declaration already implies that it may reach a peak before 2030.

Xu Lin said that China's commitment to two timetables for carbon emission reduction also means new difficulties and development opportunities for China's economic development. Because carbon neutrality is not only a matter in the energy field, it is related to all aspects of the industrial chain, carbon neutrality will promote China's energy structure adjustment, lead new technology reform and innovation, and guide the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. New energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, green technology innovation and other industries will usher in new development opportunities.

Caijing: China proposes to strive for carbon dioxide emissions to peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, what impact and changes will this emission reduction target bring to China's economic and social development? How difficult is it to achieve this goal?

Xu Lin: China's proposal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 puts forward high requirements for China's future economic and social green and low-carbon transformation, which means that after China reaches the peak of carbon emissions in 2030, it will have only 30 years to achieve carbon neutrality. At present, many developed countries have achieved carbon emissions and economic decoupling, but China is still in the stage of increasing carbon emissions and has not yet reached the peak, and this process in China is significantly shorter than the carbon neutrality process of existing developed countries, which is a great pressure and challenge for us.

Taking energy as an example, energy is the fuel of modern economic growth engine, China is a big energy consumer, and at present, China's energy intensity per unit of GDP and carbon emission intensity level are high, and there is a big gap with developed countries. Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals means that China faces enormous challenges in reducing emissions from its energy system.

On the other hand, China's total energy consumption will continue to grow. At present, the per capita natural endowment of China's energy resources is obviously insufficient. At present, the per capita energy consumption is 3.2 tons of standard coal per year, which is far from the level of 11 tons of standard coal per capita in the United States and 13 tons of standard coal in Russia, which is only a little more than half of the per capita consumption level of Japan and Germany, which are the most energy efficient.

In the future, with the improvement of the per capita income level of residents and the improvement of residents' consumption capacity, the consumption behavior of Chinese people will further converge to developed countries, and eventually it will also be reflected in the convergence of per capita energy consumption levels. Even if we converge with Japan and Germany, the average energy consumption of Chinese will be about doubled. This also means that China's total energy consumption will eventually double from the existing level, and the growth momentum of carbon emissions will remain strong, which will bring double challenges and pressures to China's emission reduction goals and energy security.

Caijing: What opportunities will the carbon neutrality target bring to China's economic development?

Xu Lin: The realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is full of challenges, but it also contains huge opportunities, and China will undergo profound changes in its industrial structure, energy structure, investment structure and other aspects.

Or take energy as an example, just mentioned, it is expected that the total amount of Energy Consumption in China will at least double in the future, so in order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in the future, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation and adjustment of the energy structure and increase the proportion of non-fossil energy production and consumption, that is, the proportion of clean energy and low-carbon energy consumption. In addition, in the field of energy conservation, we also have a big gap with developed countries, which means that in the future, new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, green technology innovation, clean production and other industries will usher in huge development opportunities.

These areas will also bring a large number of investment opportunities and create more jobs. It is foreseeable that green and low-carbon development will become a new driving force for the high-quality development of China's economy.

"Caijing": Carbon peak, carbon neutrality target task is arduous, there are industry experts analysis, China to achieve carbon peaking by 2030, the most important thing is to lay out the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan", only in the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" to improve policy strength, in order to ensure that China reaches the peak before 2030, and stabilize the peak at a reasonable level, so that the carbon peak to carbon neutral curve is smoother, and achieve a soft landing. In your opinion, what work should be focused on during the 14th Five-Year Plan period or what changes should be made to promote the achievement of emission reduction targets?

Xu Lin: I believe that to implement carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, we must promote several major changes in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

First, it is necessary to accelerate the adjustment of the industrial structure and further reduce the proportion of high-carbon emission industries and high-carbon industries.

Second, it is necessary to accelerate the process of energy revolution and the pace of energy structure adjustment, significantly reduce the proportion of fossil energy production and consumption, increase the proportion of photovoltaic wind power, biomass energy and nuclear power, and accelerate technological research and development and breakthroughs in the fields of related material technology, hydrogen fuel technology, energy storage technology, and microgrid technology.

Third, in the process of urbanization and urban-rural integration development, whether it is the construction of new cities and new villages or the transformation of old cities and old villages, it is necessary to use the concept of carbon neutrality to plan and design urban and rural construction and operation, including the construction of an efficient clean energy system for the entire urban and rural communities.

Finally, it is also necessary to implement the carbon emission quota allocation and trading system as soon as possible, starting from high-emission industries such as electricity, steel, and building materials, and gradually pushing it out to the whole industry, on this basis, we must improve the carbon trading system and carbon financial system, and form a positive carbon emission incentive mechanism.

Caijing: Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, accelerating energy supply-side reforms, and increasing the proportion of clean, zero-carbon or low-carbon energy are the top priorities.

Xu Lin: To solve the challenges brought about by energy problems, the main ones are to increase energy conservation efforts and optimize the energy structure.

In terms of energy conservation, it is particularly necessary to increase energy conservation in the field of buildings, manufacturing and daily consumption, and use more effective incentive mechanisms to encourage all kinds of energy-using entities to increase the development and promotion of energy-saving technologies, and further improve the overall energy efficiency level of the country。

In terms of optimizing the energy structure, we will focus on increasing the proportion of self-sufficient clean energy, especially renewable energy, and increase the research and development and commercial promotion of wind energy, solar energy, hydrogen energy and other related material technologies, energy storage technologies, smart grids and other technologies to improve conversion efficiency。 On this basis, it is necessary to accelerate the electrification, electrification or hydrogenization of the economy and society, promote the construction of a distributed clean energy system and the construction of a smart energy Internet, substantially reduce the continuous increase in import dependence on crude oil and natural gas, and reduce the proportion of fossil energy production and consumption. This is because China still has a large space to expand the supply of low-carbon electricity through technology and model innovation in wind, solar, nuclear and biomass energy, which not only has the significance of green and low-carbon emission reduction, but also has the long-term strategic significance of reducing energy dependence on foreign countries and improving the ability to guarantee energy autonomy and security.

Finally, it is also necessary to increase the construction of forest carbon sinks, combine with the improvement of forest vegetation coverage, and build a more incentive market-oriented realization mechanism and trading mechanism for the value of ecological assets.

The above changes in the energy field will also be conducive to the construction of a new development pattern and improve the level of internal circulation in the energy field.