The United States announced a ban on imports of Russian oil, and Russia threatened to interrupt the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline to fight back

Source: Global Times

At noon local time on the 8th, US President Biden issued a speech announcing that it would ban the import of oil from Russia. A day earlier, the leaders of the United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom held a video conference, and the White House issued a statement after the meeting, saying that the position of various countries on economic sanctions against Russia was "unprecedentedly unanimous" and determined to make Russia "continue to pay a high price for invading Ukraine." However, the voice on the European side is not the same. German Chancellor Schoelz made it clear on the same day that Germany will continue to import energy from Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron also fears that "the next winter in Europe will be more difficult", while calling for "as a country to always respect Russia". For the West's threat to impose sanctions on Russian energy, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak warned on the 8th that this move will make crude oil prices soar to more than $300 per barrel, and he also threatened to interrupt the "Nord Stream-1" natural gas pipeline to counterattack the West. Internationally, more and more countries believe that sanctions are not good for the world and call on Russia, Ukraine and relevant parties to carry out peace talks. On the 8th, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a video summit with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Schoerz in Beijing to exchange views on the situation in Ukraine. Xi Jinping stressed that the top priority is to avoid escalating tensions, or even getting out of control. China supports France and Germany in proceeding from Europe's own interests, considering Europe's lasting security, adhering to strategic autonomy and promoting the construction of a balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework.

The difference between the United States and Europe is the failure of coordination?

"We ban all imports of oil, gas and energy from Russia ... The United States has targeted the main artery of the Russian economy," the BBC quoted Biden as saying on the 8th. However, he also said: "We will not participate in the war in Russia." Bloomberg quoted sources as saying that the British government also plans to ban the import of Russian oil at the same time as the United States. The European Union issued a statement on the 8th that it will reduce Russia's natural gas imports by 2/3 this year and eliminate the overall dependence on Russian oil and gas "before 2030". EU Energy Commissioner Simson argued that while EU countries have "a sufficient amount of gas" in the remaining weeks of this winter, "we need to urgently replenish reserves for next year".

On the 8th, there were many vehicles from Germany coming to the Polish gas station to refuel, and the cost of refueling in Poland was much cheaper than that of neighboring Germany.

Agence France-Presse said that Biden held a video summit with Macron, Scholz and Johnson on the 7th. The Quartet's post-meeting statements were markedly different. The White House said there was "unprecedented agreement" among countries on their position on economic sanctions against Russia. However, Germany did not address the issue of sanctions in a press release issued after the video conference, but only stressed the "possibility of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine".

"Can the difference in the attitude of the United States and Europe towards Russian sanctions on energy be seen as a failure of Western coordination?" A reporter asked direct questions at the White House press conference on the 7th. In response, White House spokesman Psaki said that our situation (unlike Europe), the United States imports very little oil and gas, and the United States also has its own oil and gas production capacity.

VoA said that some US lawmakers, especially Republican lawmakers, have demanded a ban on the import of Russian oil and gas. Griffiths, an expert at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in the United States, said that the United States will import about 600,000 barrels of oil and petroleum products from Russia every day in 2021, worth $70 million, and the annual import value is more than $20 billion, equivalent to nearly half of Russia's annual military budget. However, the report also said that Russia's crude oil exports to the United States accounted for only 1.48% of Russia's oil exports, so sanctions on Russian energy require the participation of other countries.

The New York Times worries that if the United States sanctions Russian oil and gas, it may damage the US economy and further increase inflation. The national average price of gasoline is up more than 10 percent from a week ago and has soared to a new high since 2008. This, combined with 7.5 percent inflation in recent months, will keep popular support for biden's administration down. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that if oil prices reach $150 a barrel, U.S. economic growth this year will be at least 0.5 percentage points lower. Some Democrats worry that Republicans will use the rise in oil prices as a political baton against democrats ahead of the midterm elections.

The "Five Eyes Alliance" insisted on fanning the flames

Western countries have different attitudes on whether to sanction Russian oil and gas. Earlier on the 7th, German Chancellor Scholz publicly stated on the sanctions against Russian oil and gas that Germany will continue to import energy from Russia. "At the moment, there is no other way to guarantee the energy supply needed by Heating, Mobility, Power Generation and Industry in Europe," he said. "Russian energy is of great significance to the daily lives of Europeans, so the EU has deliberately avoided the energy sector when sanctioning Russia." Scholz said the German government has been working with partners inside and outside the European Union for months on alternatives to Russian energy, "but this will not happen overnight." German Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Habeck has also previously publicly opposed a ban on energy imports from Russia. "If an embargo occurs, social peace in Germany will be threatened," he said. ”

The Russia Today website said Scholz's refusal to ban the import of Russian energy was a "sober decision." According to data released by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs, Germany is highly dependent on Russia for fossil fuels. Russia's share of German fossil and gas imports is about 55 percent, coal imports about 50 percent, and crude oil imports about 35 percent. Within the EU, 41 percent of natural gas, 46 percent of coal and 27 percent of oil come from Russia.

French President Macron said on the campaign campaign on the 7th that if Russia decides to cut off gas supply to Europe, Europe will face difficulties, and "the next winter will be more difficult." He also made a rare declaration of the need to "maintain all possible contacts" with Russia and "cooperate with them in the fields of technology, commerce and so on ... Continue to talk with its leaders, even if there are differences between us. As a country, he said, we must always respect Russia and the Russian people. If Russia is not part of the "big picture" of the European continent, the question of "lasting peace" cannot be discussed.

Unlike European countries such as Germany and France, the "Five Eyes Alliance" countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia are actively fanning the flames in sanctioning Russian oil and gas. British Prime Minister Johnson met with visiting Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte in London on the 7th. Johnson said the UK would develop a new energy supply strategy in the coming days. According to the BBC, the UK imports less than 5% of its natural gas from Russia. Australia announced a new round of sanctions against Russia on the 8th, and two Australian oil companies also announced the suspension of oil purchases from Russia.

Trudeau announced the most severe sanctions against Russia on the 7th. In addition to imposing new sanctions on Putin and senior officials such as The Russian Foreign Minister, Canada also prohibits the import of Russian oil and gas and imposes sanctions on The Russian Gas Industry Corporation. Canada has vigorously tried to squeeze the United States to import oil from Canada in lieu of Russian oil. Yahoo News Network said that Sonia Savage, energy minister of Alberta, Canada, said on social media on the 7th: "Alberta is the answer to U.S. energy security. Really reliable, and right next door. ”

The United States is trying to coerce other countries to sanction Russia

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Western threat to sanction Russian oil and gas have caused international oil and gas prices to continue to soar. Brent crude oil prices broke through $130 per barrel on the 7th. The price of natural gas in Europe also soared to $3900 / thousand cubic meters on the 7th. Last spring, the price of natural gas in Europe averaged only 300 euros per thousand cubic meters, and now the price has soared by about 13 times.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak warned on the 8th that rejecting Russian oil and gas will bring disastrous consequences to the world market, and the price of crude oil may exceed $300 per barrel. Novak said that Russia has every right to respond to the groundless ban on Russian energy and the Nord Stream-2 project and prohibit the transmission of natural gas through the Nord Stream-1 pipeline. "We haven't made that decision at the moment because no one is going to benefit from it. But European politicians are pushing us to do so by making accusations against Russia. ”

Hungarian Finance Minister Varga said on social media on the 8th that Hungary does not support anti-Russian sanctions in the energy sector because it "means the greatest threat to the national currency and Hungarians." Those who call for the extension of sanctions are those who want the Hungarian people to pay the price of war. ”

At the same time, the United States and the West are trying to force many neutral countries to sanction Russia. A few days ago, the heads of the diplomatic missions of 22 Western countries in Pakistan sent a joint letter asking the Pakistani side to condemn and sanction Russia. On the 7th, when a reporter asked at the White House press conference whether "Western sanctions will deepen Russian-Chinese relations", White House press secretary Psaki threatened: "If China does not comply with the sanctions, we have always had a way to take measures." ”

In order to impose sanctions on Russian oil and gas, the United States began to turn to its old rival Venezuela to increase crude oil production to stabilize international oil prices. Venezuelan President Maduro confirmed in a televised speech on the evening of the 7th that he held a meeting with the visiting US delegation. However, he said: "The United States and the West have carried out activities that openly hate Russia, as well as a package of economic sanctions ... It has caused global consequences for oil, gas and food prices. The whole world is insecure. ”

Bloomberg said that the West's increased sanctions against Russia have caused commodity prices such as oil and gas to soar, which will push up the risk that the world may repeat the high inflation and recession of the 1970s. Europe, in particular, faces a huge crisis. Economists at Barclays and JPMorgan predict that a complete cut off of gas supply in Russia would mean a 2.2 percent drop in eurozone GDP; a complete disruption of Russia's 4.3 million barrels of oil exports to the United States and Europe would cost global GDP growth 3 percentage points.

Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 8th that the Ukrainian crisis and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict were initiated by the United States and NATO. The United States' persecution of other countries to impose sanctions on Russia is an attempt to make the whole world bear the evil consequences of the troubles created by the United States itself. This is a rogue practice and a blatant intervention in the sovereignty of other states.

Li Haidong said: When Li Zhanshu, chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, made a report on 8 July, he mentioned the "Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law," and the audience applauded thunderously. This shows that China is adopting a rational and targeted new way of defending its vital interests in the face of the new reality of international struggle and the new international environment in which individual countries frequently use sanctions on the international stage.

[Sui Xin, Zhang Jing, Global Times special correspondent in Russia, Germany and South Korea, Global Times reporter Liu Yang, Chen Kang, Liu Yupeng]

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