Has the dawn of victory over the pandemic already emerged? Zhang Wenhong's latest voice

On March 7, Zhang Wenhong posted through his personal Weibo @ Dr. Zhang Wenhong that the fight against the epidemic has reached a new stage, and it is necessary to avoid a one-size-fits-all approach, nor can there be a "large-scale rebound of the epidemic" out of control. In the future fight against the epidemic, the layout of vaccine strategies will be the top priority, and we must explore a smarter dynamic zeroing model.

According to Zhang Wenhong, the recent vaccine strategy in the mainland is also constantly improving, and the drugs that China has entered the global phase III clinical research will certainly be successful. The professional team of the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, where our treatment expert group is located, is also leading several clinical studies of China's self-developed antiviral drugs across the country and the world, and other major clinical research teams in China have also made new research progress every day. The dawn of our victory over the pandemic has emerged.

The original text is as follows:

The Beijing Winter Olympics were brilliantly concluded, the Paralympic Games were held as scheduled, and the annual National Two Sessions were held normally. Due to the increase in imported cases and local cases in China, the anti-epidemic situation is generally stable. Recently due to the significant increase in imported cases, in the first 2 months of this year, Shanghai has reported a total of 1243 cases of imported confirmed cases, accounting for about 38% of the total number of confirmed cases imported from abroad in the same period of the country, accounting for about 80% of the total number of imported confirmed cases in our city last year, while today there is a rebound in some local cases, clinical treatment work has been challenged as never before, most of the time is considering how to maintain the treatment work from the occurrence of medical run analysis and research, We have also worked with experts across the country to make various measures that may need to be taken and clinical treatment challenges that may arise if adjustments to the current prevention and control model occur. Some ideas are presented for your reference.

First, the recent very certain goal of epidemic prevention work

During this year's two sessions, the general secretary pointed out in his speech at the Inner Mongolia delegation that we must "keep the bottom line of no large-scale rebound of the epidemic." This also fully reflects the overall work goal of the mainland's recent epidemic prevention. Imported cases or indigenous cases may always exist, but our goal is to always control the epidemic to a very low level, not to cause a large-scale rebound, not to cause a run on medical resources, so that we have the conditions to ensure the normal life of the people through accurate prevention and control. This point should be a very clear general policy, whether we adopt a zero policy, a dynamic zero policy, a precise dynamic zero policy, and a policy of gradual dynamic opening up, no large-scale rebound of the epidemic will be our bottom line for epidemic prevention.

Second, the experience of Shanghai and Hong Kong reveals the core technical links of prevention and control

Recently, it is mainly to summarize the experience with the experts of the clinical treatment team, how to do a good job in the case of high import cases, and even in the case of superposition of imported cases and local cases, to prevent the emergence of a passive situation in which insufficient medical resources affect the success rate of treatment.

Today the team completed the analysis of 2266 cases in Shanghai in the past 6 months, and found that the proportion of vaccinations in all cases has reached about 94%, in the context of high vaccination rates, if medical resources are fully guaranteed, all cases have not developed to critical illness, and no cases have died. It is important to clarify once again the strong correlation between vaccination and the incidence of severe cases. After two doses of vaccination, a certain proportion still occurs to a severe state requiring oxygen, but in cases after the third dose of enhanced immunization, the incidence of severe disease is reduced to 0.1%, and none of them progress to critical illness.

At the same time, we have always been very concerned about the anti-epidemic work of Hong Kong compatriots. The Hong Kong epidemic prevention team worked closely with the mainland support team to fully apply various effective anti-epidemic core technologies: vaccination, graded diagnosis and treatment, and expanded testing. Since the outbreak of the fifth wave in Hong Kong, there have been 1561 deaths, of which 94.7% are elderly; 91.3% did not complete vaccination. In all cases, the case fatality rate for completing two doses was 0.04 percent, and for unvaccinated people, the case fatality rate was 1.25 percent, which was 31 times higher than the former. If the elderly over the age of 80 are not vaccinated, the case fatality rate is as high as 8.6%; If two doses of the vaccine have been given, the case fatality rate is 1.57%. On March 5, the Secretary for civil service of the Hong Kong SAR Government, Mr Nie Tak-kuen, said that the vaccination rate of the elderly has increased significantly recently, with 51% of people aged 80 or above, 78% of people aged 70 to 79 and more than 88% of 60 to 69 years old. The population received a second dose of COVID-19 vaccination at 78%. Nearly 2 million people were vaccinated with the third dose.

In view of the future fight against the epidemic, the layout of the vaccine strategy will be the top priority. Based on the recent experience of Shanghai and Hong Kong, as well as international experiences in places such as Singapore and New Zealand, the significance of vaccination has been universally recognized. As long as this trend is maintained, and through a good medical triage system, including Hong Kong, China, it is predictable that the world will emerge from the epidemic in the future.

Third, the characteristics of the recent response strategies of various parts of the mainland

Recently, clusters of indigenous cases have emerged in many parts of the country. Nationwide, we have ushered in a wave of severe tests in which imported cases from abroad are superimposed with local cases. The fight against the epidemic entered the second stage, and during the two sessions in Shanghai in January, the committee members and deputies had full discussions and full communication with the government health authorities, and the anti-epidemic forces from all walks of life had made a comprehensive layout for the later response. Including: isolation housing, epidemic tracking, nucleic acid screening, expanding the material security of the isolation area, etc., the district governments have also made specific plans for this.

As the fight against the epidemic enters the deep water area, the strategy of "dynamic zero clearance" has been more clearly implemented. The connotation of the so-called "dynamic" shows more governance wisdom and diversity. According to local specific conditions, the scale control of dynamic zeroing will vary, which mainly depends on the goal of epidemic prevention and control and the cost-benefit ratio. Especially recently, in the process of dynamic zero clearance across the country, it is inevitable that some institutions, including hospitals, schools and shopping malls, will be sealed. It has caused some repercussions in society. Some people also generated some panic and complaints. These are all very normal phenomena.

The fight against the epidemic has reached a new stage, not only to avoid one-size-fits-all, but also not to have a "large-scale epidemic rebound" out of control, the main criterion measured during the period is the cost-effectiveness of the fight against the epidemic, how to achieve the goal of anti-epidemic work, but also not blindly one-size-fits-all, at the expense of normal life to achieve the so-called zero-clearing purpose. In addition to medical science, there is also management science in epidemic prevention and control, if the "bottom line of not rebounding on the scale of the epidemic" is taken as the standard and scale of work, then the follow-up "dynamic" connotation can be played more accurately, and the next stage of work should strive for the scientificity and precision of prevention and control work, and strive to take the best prevention and control measures in all aspects of normalization prevention and control and epidemic disposal, so as to achieve the best prevention and control effect with the minimum prevention and control cost.

The traceability of the epidemic in Shanghai shows that at a time when the international epidemic is fully relaxed, our epidemic prevention work will face greater challenges. In response to the current epidemic situation in Shanghai, the brothers and sisters of shanghai's epidemic prevention troops have made every effort to speed up the spread of the virus in the spirit of "not staying overnight". To accurately prevent and control, the least impact on people's lives, then we must run at full strength, strictly control the high-risk groups of virus transmission, screen and monitor sub-close populations, and gradually cut off the transmission chain. Through our patience, we outperform the virus and eliminate the spread of the virus in dynamic tracking. The stage of running with the virus is the hardest, and there will be certain cases in the supervision area that will continue to be detected, and individual cases that run out of the first encirclement may also be found, but it does not matter, immediately start a new dynamic clearance. The fight against the epidemic has been more than 2 years, and avoiding a one-size-fits-all impact on people's lives is also part of the epidemic prevention work, how to achieve a smaller impact on normal life at this stage while curbing the spread of the virus is a test for the epidemic prevention troops. In today's global spread of the virus and its potential for a long time, our goal is to always be able to avoid the threat to people's lives, while also striving to maintain normal life. I am very pleased to see that this time in the most difficult stage of prevention and control in Shanghai, the prevention and control troops can be said to be sleepless, but in addition to the life and work in the control area being partially affected, the entire city is operating normally. Of course, how to further improve the living environment and feelings of personnel in the control area is also a management topic that is worth exploring and studying in the next stage.

Fourth, always believe that the dawn is ahead

At present, the mainland is comprehensively promoting the intensive vaccination of vaccines, implementing optimized vaccination strategies, and laying out clinical research on a series of antiviral drugs. The mainland's epidemic prevention capabilities will eventually be continuously improved and optimized in actual combat, and the recent vaccine strategy of the mainland is also constantly improving, and the drugs that China has entered the global phase III clinical research will certainly be successful. The professional team of the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, where our treatment expert group is located, is also leading several clinical studies of China's self-developed antiviral drugs across the country and the world, and other major clinical research teams in China have also made new research progress every day.

The dawn of our victory over the epidemic has emerged, and today, when the global epidemic has gradually declined, relying on China's biomedical achievements and the governance ability of Chinese society, we will certainly be able to get out of the maverick minimum case fatality rate and gradually return to the innovative road of normal life.

In 2022, fighting the epidemic with a normal heart, getting better and better every year, must be the right way for us to fight the epidemic.

Source: Dr. Zhang Wenhong