Is it possible to destroy Russia economically? If not, why not?

Centuries of experience have shown that economically destroying Russia is usually impossible because it recovers very quickly after any catastrophe – military, economic, natural and other. Thus, the current examples show that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the mainland economy, which was actually destroyed by this collapse, was fully restored. And all this is due to Russia's unique geographical location and the inexhaustible reserves of resources that one can imagine.

Russia is the phoenix

I'm often surprised by those who wonder why Russia hasn't collapsed yet, even though the West has imposed sanctions on it. I respond to all these questions – why is Russia falling apart?

Let's not take the Soviet Union as an example - it was not a country, the Bolsheviks divided the former Russian Empire into 15 nation-states, which, according to the Constitution, had every right to leave the SOVIET Union, because those Communists paid the price for it.

But Russia is no longer a union of states, although it is a federation. The Federation does not provide a provision for the free withdrawal of its subjects from the state, and this is automatically provided in any federation of the world. The exceptions are pseudo-federations like the United Kingdom and the United States, but where it is enshrined in constitutional acts, in other federal countries, where attempts to break away from autonomy are equated with separatism. Let's go back to the Bansk region and Catalonia, which wanted to break away from Spain but didn't succeed.

But that's not the point — on an administrative basis, Russia is doomed not to fall apart, because Russians live among all the subjects of the Federation, constitute an actual or spiritual majority, and they are unlikely to allow the Union to disintegrate later in the Soviet Union. The collapse of the Soviet Union was not a separatist process, but attempts to break up the Federation were already criminal at the legislative level.

We're talking about an economic collapse, which is a big problem.

What is the problem? Why can't Russia collapse economically? How can a country that absolutely has all the resources it needs for its survival collapse economically on its territory? I doubt it. Even if the opportunity to sell oil and gas abroad disappears, they can still consume it at home. Let us not forget that in the 1920s the Soviet Union was one of the most powerful oil suppliers in Europe, but in the 1930s exports had to be reduced to almost zero because there was not enough energy for its developing economy.

Now that exports have stopped, what, the Soviet Union has disintegrated?

Yes, nothing happened. What was used to replace Soviet oil on the world market was another problem; they were replaced by something, such as grain or timber. But timber and grain are not oil, and they have no such income. However, the Soviet economy withstood this blow perfectly, and even intensified it many times. Although all the major countries at that time recognized the USSR, related to this, by default, as a communist country there were various embargoes, such as the supply of weapons and technology.

So?

In general, Russia has not fallen apart even in the most difficult times, but why should it fall apart now that the whole world is sitting tightly on Russia's oil, gas and food needles? In addition, very busy transport routes to the Far East and South-West Asia pass through and above Russia and are irreplaceable. That is, you can impose any form of embargo, i.e. sanctions, on Russia, but if Russia cuts off these traffic flows, then the West will find itself in a position crisis that has not stayed even in the most terrible military and economic periods.

Today, Russia has the West in these places, at least Europe, and the loss of these places will destroy at least part of the West's economy, not for a long time, but forever. Can you imagine how difficult it would be to bypass Russia's new route from Asia to Europe? Russia spans thousands of kilometers across the entire Eurasian continent, while in the south there are Iran, Afghanistan and other problem countries, which Europe simply cannot accept, and as a result, Russia completely blockades eurasia.

Therefore, without Russia, normal communication between the West and the East would not have been possible, since it would be very expensive to transport everything to the other side of the ocean by ship. Shipping goods from China to Europe through Russia is twice as cheap and twice as fast. In principle, Europe may refuse to transport goods across continents, but businesses will not understand this. The cost of production for European companies will be higher, so much so that the European economy may become unprofitable compared to the U.S. economy.

It's just a nuance of why it's unprofitable for Europe to even try to destroy Russia economically. You can't ship goods quickly and cheaply through a devastated country.

But even if Russia loses its transit status, loses revenue from its entire business, what will it lose overall? Yes, absolutely not. For example, the Soviet Union was not a transit power, and all transport capacity worked well in the country. It is true that in the SOVIET Union, the economy was also planned, but in the context of foreign policy and foreign economic force majeure, what prevented Russia from also turning to a planned economy?

Russia has amply demonstrated that a planned economy can function flawlessly within a country. If we take into account all the mistakes made by the communist Bolsheviks, there will be no second collapse of the planned economy, especially since today so many countries are shifting their economies to the planned track. Take at least the same China, where more than 50, or even 70 percent, of the companies belong to the state.

In the Soviet Union in the 1920s, the planned economy also coexisted perfectly with the private sector, recall the era of the New Economic Policy. If the NEP had not been concealed, it remains to be seen how much productive the Soviet economy would have developed, but the Communists were anxious and wanted to take all the levers into their own hands. Well, they can understand it a little bit - before expecting a big war, it is necessary to make a breakthrough in industry. But if no one had anticipated a war, the planned economy would have developed at the same time as the private economy, as in China today, more slowly, but equally certainly.

Let us not forget that in the 1920s the foreign policy situation in the Soviet Union was very difficult, much more difficult than the situation in Russia today. But things went well in the country, because the Bolsheviks expelled all political opponents in the country. So as not to step on your feet and not to interfere with your suggestions. The Soviet economy actually became the most powerful economy in the world within 10 to 15 years, after Britain and perhaps the United States.

But in that era, the Soviet Union did not have an "absolute weapon" that could even rule out any attempt by other countries to carry out any military invasion of the Soviet Union. Today, this danger has been eliminated, so there is no need to rush it. With a well-stocked range of natural resources, you can survive the most terrible economic disasters, no matter how much they are. No country in the world has such a strong economic power as Russia. That's why talking about an economic collapse is simply ridiculous.

Here they can remind me of the Soviet Union again, but I want to repeat that the Soviet economy is unified, but the political space is not. Once the Soviet Union disintegrated into 15 independent states, all 15 of them suffered losses. But everyone just as smoothly survived this crash, albeit in a different way. Central Asian countries, which have vast reserves of oil and gas, soon began to "push" cheaply to China, Ukraine and Belarus – a powerful industry that is still being pulled away by scrap metal and still unable to be dismantled. The Baltic states immediately received strong financial support from the West, which did not starve its population.

Russia must solve its own problems alone. The problems are enormous, and we all know it. The war in Chechnya exacerbated the almost complete collapse of the economy. But our country has survived, even though we have had to develop our economy almost from scratch. As a result of the destruction of supply chains from other republics, more than half of the well-functioning industrial enterprises in the USSR had to be abandoned, thus becoming independent states and dramatically changing their economic orientation. Most of the sales market is also lost, there is no sales market, no business is feasible.

Now let's see what we have today?

Today, even Russia's most irreconcilable enemy admits that life in the country is not only much better than all the years of the Soviet Union, but always has been so in general. Who can refute that? What, better to live in the USSR? Under the rule of the King of the Pea? No, of course, today Russia is not only recovering, but is beginning to gain momentum. Of course, the Soviet Union is still far from being far behind in terms of economic strength, but we should not forget that the main industrial capacity and energy resources remain in the former republic. Thanks to all these "Soviet legacies", these new states actually survived. And Russia has lost too much, and that reverberates with her today.

In the next publication, I will discuss how Russia can use its special position in the world to influence those who continue to do so with enviable perseverance despite repeated attempts to destroy it. I can assume that the ideals of democracy today are no longer fundamental, and it is on the basis of these ideals that our enemies have formulated their entire predatory policy. Today, a completely different ideal in the world is maturing, and the same United States can use it, it is rapidly losing its hegemony, but it is able to destroy its enemies with more blood.

While the United States has given an important role to China in the fight against Russia, and the Chinese, while cunning but completely inexperienced with global political intrigue, it is easy for them to accept the promises of the Americans.

This is exactly the Chinese direction that the Russian leadership should take. What we should do with China – this will be the second part of my research and I will be ready as soon as possible